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STATES

 

PENNSYLVANIA

Head-to-Head

PENNSYLVANIA - Obama vs. McCain
Ref's Projection: Obama Wins, but McCain could pull the upset
Range of Potential Vote Considering Margin of Error Without Undecided
Obama 46.3 - 54.3
McCain 40.5 - 48.5
Undecided 5.2 - Undecideds will break for McCain, but not enough to make the difference
Poll Dates Sample MoE McCain Obama
The Ref's Averages
 10/27-11/1 656V 4.0 44.5 50.3
11/1 700LV 4.0 46 52
10/30-11/2 602LV 4.1 40 54
This is not a 14 point race.  This poll just throws off the average.  Not included.
10/29-10/31 700LV 3.8 44 51
10/29-10/31 600LV 4.0 45 51
10/27-10/28 625LV 4.0 43 47
10/20-10/26 761LV 3.1 41 50
10/21-10/22 620LV 4.0 41 53
10/20-10/22 1200LV 3.0 43 50
9/27-10/1 610LV 4.0 41 50
9/27-9/29 832LV 3.4 39 54
         
9/23-9/28 767RV 3.5 43 48
9/28 500LV 4.5 42 50
9/24-9/28 581LV 4.5 42 49
9/18-9/22 406RV 4.9 41 43
9/23-9/24 1094LV 3.0 44 50
9/21-9/23 1200LV 3.0 46 47
9/21-9/23 730LV 3.5 44 53
9/18-9/22 600LV 4.0 46 50
9/21 500LV 4.5 45 48
9/16 625LV 3.9 44 46
9/14-9/17 600RV 4.0 45 45
9/14 500LV 4.5 47 47
9/5-9/9 1001LV 3.1 45 48
9/8-9/9 1200LV 3.0 45 47
9/7 500LV 4.5 45 47
8/24-8/26 669RV 4.0 43 48
8/17-8/24 1234LV 2.8 42 49
8/19 700LV 4.0 45 48
8/11-8/14 700LV 3.7 41 46
8/4-8/10 LV 3.9 41 46
7/23-7/29 1317LV 2.7 42 49
7/25-7/27 1200LV 3.0 40 49
7/23 700LV 4.0 45 51
6/11-6/30 1935LV 2.5 36 46
6/19 1000LV 3.0 42 46
6/9-6/16 1511LV 2.5 40 52
5/21 500LV 4.5 43 45
5/13-5/20 1667RV 2.4 40 46
5/16-5/18 600RV 4.1 40 48
5/1-5/6 800RV 3.4 39 46
4/23-4/29 1494RV 2.5 38 47
4/24 500LV 4.0 44 43
4/18-4/20 1200LV 3.0 48 40
4/11-4/13 1200LV 3.0 49 39
4/9 500LV 4.5 39 47
4/4 1200LV 3.0 48 41
3/24-3/31 3484RV 1.7 39 43
3/10 500LV 4.5 44 43
3/5-3/10 700RV - 45 41
3/7-3/9 1200LV 3.0 47 44
2/26-2/28 608RV 4.1 47 42
2/21-2/25 1872RV 2.3 40 42
*The Ref's Averages do not include extreme outlier polls that are demonstrably inaccurate.
*The Ref's Averages do not include Internet polls.

 

PENNSYLVANIA - Clinton vs. McCain
Clinton Leads by 12.0%
Poll Dates Sample MoE Clinton McCain
The Ref's Averages
 5/13-5/21 1084V 3.5 50.0 38.0
5/21 500LV 4.5 50 39
5/13-5/20 1667RV 2.4 50 37
5/1-5/6 800RV 3.4 49 38
4/23-4/29 1494RV 2.5 51 37
4/24 500LV 4.0 47 42
4/18-4/20 1200LV 3.0 42 46
4/11-4/13 1200LV 3.0 44 47
4/9 500LV 4.5 47 38
4/4 1200LV 3.0 45 42
3/24-3/31 3484RV 1.7 48 40
3/10 500LV 4.5 44 46
3/5-3/10 700RV - 47 44
3/7-3/9 1200LV 3.0 42 48
2/26-2/28 609RV 4.1 47 46
2/21-2/25 1872RV 2.3 44 42

Democrats

PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRATIC PRMARY
Clinton Leads by 6.7%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Clinton
Obama
The Ref's Averages 4/17-4/21 921V 3.6 49.8 43.1
4/20-4/21 675LV 4.1 51 41
4/21 712RV 3.6 49 42
4/20 722LV 4.0 49 44
4/19-4/20 2338LV 2.0 46 49
4/19-4/20 600LV 4.0 52 42
4/18-4/20 1027LV 3.1 51 44
4/18-4/20 710LV 3.8 50 44
4/18-4/20 1200LV 3.0 48 41
4/17-4/19 600LV 4.0 54 41
4/17-4/18 625RV 4.0 48 43
4/17 730LV 4.0 47 44
4/14-4/15 1095LV 3.0 42 45
4/10-4/14 687LV 4.0 46 41
4/12-4/14 638LV 3.9 54 40
4/14 741LV 4.0 50 41
4/11-4/13 600LV 4.0 57 37
4/9-4/13 2103LV 2.1 50 44
4/9-4/10 1002LV 3.2 47 43
3/27-4/9 583LV 4.0 47 41
4/8 681LV 3.6 48 38
4/7-4/8 1124LV 2.9 46 43
4/7 695LV 4.0 48 43
4/5-4/7 597LV 4.1 56 38
4/5-4/6 600LV 4.0 45 45
3/27-4/2 406LV 5.0 51 41
4/2 659LV 3.7 45 43
3/31-4/1 1224LV 2.8 43 45
3/31 730LV 4.0 47 42
3/29-3/31 588LV 4.1 53 41
3/26-3/27 600LV 4.0 51 39
3/24 690LV 4.0 49 39
3/15-3/16 597LV 4.0 56 30
3/10-3/16 1304LV 2.7 53 41
3/12 697LV 4.0 51 38
3/8-3/10 608LV 4.0 55 36
3/5-3/10 500RV 4.38 45 31
3/7-3/8 600LV 4.0 52 41
3/5 690LV 4.0 52 37
2/26 820LV 3.0 46 42
2/21-2/25 506LV 4.4 49 43
2/13-2/18 303RV 5.6 44 32
2/6-2/12 577LV 4.1 52 36
1/8-1/14 RV - 20 40
8/26-8/29
600LV
4.0
22
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Last Republican Averages

PENNSYLVANIA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
McCain Leads by 29%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain
 Huckabee
Paul
The Ref's Average
 Insufficient data for Averages
2/26 586LV - 59 30 5
1/8-1/14 RV - 30 12 2
8/26-8/29
60LV
4.0
12
  
21