Political Ref

AP: McCain takes on GOP and Bush along with Obama | Ref's Comment: The Obama campaign has some big problems making the case that McCain is another Bush. The Bush third term argument is one you make against a Vice President, a member of an administration or a stalwart supporter. McCain fits none of those categories. The argument is a backward looking one, something that tends to bore voters. It also assumes that the media will remain complicit with the Obama campaign as it has throughout the primaries and the general election. The significant backlash against the media over Sarah Palin, something that has already caused MSNBC to demote Olbermann and Matthews, will likely reverberate throughout the media and inspire some fairness. McCain already has the memory of voters to rely on in making his case that he is a genuine maverick. When the media reminds voters of his remarkable reputation for independence, as they are likely to do in the new spirit of fairness that will likely come about due to the Palin backlash, the "McBush" argument will fall on more and more deaf ears. Flashback: Key Obama Strategy Threatens His Chances

Democrats haunted by national security

Palin, Obama swap salvos

Ref's Guaranteed Fresh Videos

8 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

McCain and Palin in New Mexico

Obama interview on This Week (Part 1)

Obama interview on This Week (Part 2)

Obama interview on This Week (Part 3)

Ref's Daily Poll Averages

7 Sep 2008 18:22:00 GMT

I'm getting quite a few questions about why I am averaging polls that do not include data from after the Sarah Palin speech, specifically relating to the likely voter average. The Ref's Averages are much more stable than a single poll because we keep a rolling average. On Monday, we will have only polls that were taken after both the Palin and McCain speeches. We will have no solid indication of what the Republican convention bounce is until Monday. For those people who are saying there is no real Republican bounce, we will not know that until Monday, or maybe even later. Obama's full bounce did not arrive until Tuesday of last week.

McCain vs. Obama

All Voters

Obama +0.8

Obama 45.3

McCain 44.5

See Graph

Likely Voters Only

Obama +3.0

Obama 47.0

McCain 44.0

See Graph

Electoral Vote Projection | Battleground States | Media Bias Average

Congressional Generic Ballot | Obama vs. Generic Dem. | McCain vs. Generic Rep.

Bush Approval | Congressional Approval

Ref's Best

7 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Media wars

Obama Fundraiser: Palin Putting Career Above Family

Palin investigation leader biased against Palin

Rival Tickets Are Redrawing Battlegrounds

Tough guv

Palin, Obama swap salvos

Ref's Guaranteed Fresh Videos

7 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

McCain campaign "rescues" flags "improperly disposed" of at DNC

Ref's Daily Poll Averages

6 Sep 2008 20:58:00 GMT

McCain vs. Obama

All Voters

Obama +3.0

Obama 47.0

McCain 44.0

See Graph

Likely Voters Only

Obama +5.0

Obama 48.0

McCain 43.0

See Graph

Electoral Vote Projection | Battleground States | Media Bias Average

Congressional Generic Ballot | Obama vs. Generic Dem. | McCain vs. Generic Rep.

Bush Approval | Congressional Approval

Palin Forces Obama to Give Media Allies Vote of No Confidence

6 Sep 2008 06:03:12 GMT

Palin Forces Obama to Give Media Allies Vote of No Confidence

Ref's Best

6 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Top 7 Myths, Lies and Untruths About Sarah Palin

Clinton set to strike McCain, not Palin

Democrats attack on foreign policy experience . . . whoops

Democratic Governor Strickland: Don't Believe the Doomsayers (Obama?): Ohio's Economy Is Doing Fine

Rangel had no-interest mortgage more than 10 years

New York Times again points out that McCain is not just another Republican

McCain-Palin and the women's vote

Ref's Guaranteed Fresh Videos

6 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Sally Quinn apologizes for remarks about Palin, acknowledges "huge backlash against the media"

McCain/Palin: "Temple"

Latest State Poll Updates

5 Sep 2008 23:26:00 GMT

Friday 9/5 - Alaska, Indiana

Ref's Daily Poll Averages

5 Sep 2008 18:05:00 GMT

McCain vs. Obama

All Voters

Obama +3.2

Obama 47.0

McCain 43.8

See Graph

Likely Voters Only

Obama +4.6

Obama 47.6

McCain 43.0

See Graph

Electoral Vote Projection | Battleground States | Media Bias Average

Congressional Generic Ballot | Obama vs. Generic Dem. | McCain vs. Generic Rep.

Bush Approval | Congressional Approval

Majority believe media trying to hurt Palin

5 Sep 2008 16:05:00 GMT

Majority believe media trying to hurt Palin

Ref's Best

5 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

NYT: McCain Vows to End ‘Partisan Rancor,’ Seizing Theme of Change From Rival

Classless: Code Pink Protesters Interrupt McCain Acceptance Speech

How Palin Beat Alaska's Establishment

Poll: Democratic bounce gone, race tied

Hillary 2012

Obama Camp Turns to Clinton to Counter Palin | Ref's Comment: I don't think Obama should rely on Clinton. He should let her stay in the background because every appearance she makes only underscores the primary battle that left many Democrats angry at Obama and the media. Also, many people will continue to question the wisdom of his nomination if he needs to rely on the one he barely defeated. Clinton's presence, no matter what she says about McCain and Palin, only serves to fuel the anger many Democratic women have. Perhaps the Obama camp knows this and simply has no other option.

The 'Community Organizer's' New Clothes

Washington Post: A Maverick's Appeal

McCain Casts GOP Ticket as Force for Reform

Obama: Surge succeeded beyond our wildest dreams

Slashing at Obama, Top Republicans Praise McCain as Reformer

Ref's Guaranteed Fresh Videos

5 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

McCain says Republicans lost their principles, promises change

Obama on O'Reilly

Ref's Daily Poll Averages

4 Sep 2008 22:00:00 GMT

McCain vs. Obama

All Voters

Obama +4.6

Obama 47.8

McCain 43.2

See Graph

Likely Voters Only

Obama +5.5

Obama 49.5

McCain 44.0

See Graph

Electoral Vote Projection | Battleground States | Media Bias Average

Congressional Generic Ballot | Obama vs. Generic Dem. | McCain vs. Generic Rep.

Bush Approval | Congressional Approval

Ref's Electoral Projection

4 Sep 2008 18:29:00 GMT

Without Leaners - Minnesota moves from Lean Obama to Obama

Obama 217

McCain 176

Toss Ups/Leaners 145

See Graph

Including Leaners - No Change

Obama 260

McCain 221

Toss Ups 57

See Graph

Latest State Poll Updates

4 Sep 2008 18:29:00 GMT

Wednesday 9/4 - Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio

Ref's Daily Poll Averages

4 Sep 2008 17:38:00 GMT

McCain vs. Obama

All Voters

Obama +6.0

Obama 48.8

McCain 42.8

See Graph

Likely Voters Only

Obama +5.5

Obama 49.5

McCain 44.0

See Graph

Electoral Vote Projection | Battleground States | Media Bias Average

Congressional Generic Ballot | Obama vs. Generic Dem. | McCain vs. Generic Rep.

Bush Approval | Congressional Approval

Scorecard: Media verses Sarah Palin

4 Sep 2008 06:05:00 GMT

Scorecard: Media verses Sarah Palin

Check back regularly as more allegations are sure to fly from the media.

Permalink - Email the Scorecard

ALLEGATION	TRUTH
State Trooper Allegation
Sarah Palin used her influence to get the head of the Alaska State Troopers fired for refusing to fire her brother in law, who was in a nasty divorce with her sister.	Unknown. Currently under investigation. The investigation resulted from complaints from a political rival of Palin, Andrew Halco. No evidence has publicly come to light proving this allegation. Source
Book Banning
Sarah Palin wanted to ban books.	False. A loaded charge like this deserves proof. No evidence exists for this charge. A political opponent whom she defeated for the mayorship of Wasilla, AK made this claim but the librarian who allegedly heard Palin's comment suggesting this cannot be reached for comment. The media has used a comment by an opponent of Palin's, whose recollections of the type of campaign she ran have been disputed by another, likely more objective source, as the basis for this claim. Source
Independence Party
Sarah Palin was a member of the Alaskan Independence party, a party that wants to secede from the US.	False. Her husband was briefly a member. Source
Buchanan 2000
Sarah Palin supported Pat Buchanan in the 2000 election when he was widely considered a candidate of the far right.	False. She wore a Buchanan button at a rally in Wasilla, AK in 1999 but wrote to the AP explaining that she only wore it to welcome a candidate, not in support of him. Sarah Palin actually traveled to Fairbanks, AK shortly after that for a Steve Forbes rally, whom she says she supported in that election. Source
Bridge to Nowhere
Sarah Palin was for the "bridge to nowhere" before she was against it.	True. Governor Palin's communications director Bill McAllister said she reevaluated her stance when she realized that "Alaska was being perceived as taking from the country and not giving." Source. Democrats rightly claim she changed her mind. Republicans rightly claim that she killed the project.
Marijuana
Sarah Palin smoked marijuana in the past.	True. She has admitted smoking marijuana. Source

Ref's Best

4 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Liberal Tom Shales: "John McCain's brilliantly screwy choice for a running mate changed from laughingstock to national star."

Clinton aides: Palin treatment sexist

McCain Backers Accuse Media, Dems of Sexism With Palin

Democrat Susan Estrich: Sarah Palin and the Double Standard

Video: Ever wonder who some of the Republicans are who trash Republicans off the record for the liberal media? Here's two.

Noonan backpedals

Karl Rove: Palin Could Make the Difference In This Close Race

Politico: Palin wows GOP, puts Dems on notice

Palin takes on 'Washington elite'

Palin's Home Run

No caving for the moose killer

The Anbar Lesson

New York Times: McCain disagrees with Republicans on major issues

Washington Post tries to divert focus from Palin's speech with new details on State Trooper controversy | Ref's Comment: There is not much here. The governor showed interest in the fate of a state employee who was threatening her family. If this employee were not her brother-in-law she probably would have been much tougher. Not sure what the worst case scenario is, maybe censure? That almost certainly will not happen. The media, however, will continue it's obsession with this story and throw it up anytime it wants to distract from a positive Republican news cycle. This story is Exhibit A. Now that Palin has established herself as a prime time player, the media needs to come at her with prime time evidence, and it has none. This story will die down quite a bit until something dispositive comes to light or until the investigator simply can't make his case.

Ref's Guaranteed Fresh Videos

4 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Governor Palin's Full Acceptance Speech

Feminist Sally Quinn: Moms have more responsibility for kids

Wonder why MSNBC invites Noonan and Murphy? Maybe this is why.

Ref's Daily Poll Averages

3 Sep 2008 18:39:00 GMT

McCain vs. Obama

All Voters

Obama +5.8

Obama 48.8

McCain 43.0

See Graph

Likely Voters Only

Obama +5.5

Obama 49.5

McCain 44.0

See Graph

Electoral Vote Projection | Battleground States | Media Bias Average

Congressional Generic Ballot | Obama vs. Generic Dem. | McCain vs. Generic Rep.

Bush Approval | Congressional Approval

Ref's Best

3 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Another media attack on Palin, parroted by many, exposed as false

Why the Washington crowd is sneering at Sarah Palin

Media would not question a man in the same way

Novak: McCain Comes Through

McCain camp lashes out at press over Palin

Obama to appear on O'Reilly Factor Thursday night

Bush Has a Good Economic Record

What the Palin Pick Says

Media continues to expose details of Palin's private life

Thompson Defends Palin, Calls Her ‘Breath of Fresh Air’

Ref's Guaranteed Fresh Videos

3 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Joe Lieberman addresses Republican convention - Larger Player

Fred Thompson addresses the Republican convention

Scorecard: Media verses Sarah Palin

3 Sep 2008 05:05:00 GMT

Scorecard: Media verses Sarah Palin

Check back regularly as more allegations are sure to fly from the media.

Permalink - Email the Scorecard

ALLEGATION	TRUTH
Sarah Palin used her influence to get the head of the Alaska State Troopers fired for refusing to fire her brother in law, who was in a nasty divorce with her sister.	Unknown. Currently under investigation. The investigation resulted from complaints from a political rival of Palin, Andrew Halco. No evidence has publicly come to light proving this allegation. Source
Sarah Palin was a member of the Alaskan Independence party, a party that wants to secede from the US.	False. Her husband was briefly a member. Source
Sarah Palin supported Pat Buchanan in the 2000 election when he was widely considered a candidate of the far right.	False. She wore a Buchanan button at a rally in Wasilla, AK in 1999 but wrote to the AP explaining that she only wore it to welcome a candidate, not in support of him. Sarah Palin actually traveled to Fairbanks, AK shortly after that for a Steve Forbes rally, whom she says she supported in that election. Source
Sarah Palin smoked marijuana in the past.	True. She has admitted smoking marijuana. Source

Ref's Daily Poll Averages

2 Sep 2008 19:12:00 GMT

The news about the Palin teenage pregnancy appears to have swayed some undecided voters toward Obama. Considering that the Republican convention is just getting started today, one can expect some volatility in the polls in the coming days. Also, the pregnancy story may or may not have a lasting impact. Certainly it had a negative impact at first blush.

McCain vs. Obama

All Voters

Obama +6.4

Obama 49.2

McCain 42.8

See Graph

Likely Voters Only

Obama +6.0

Obama 50.0

McCain 44.0

See Graph

Electoral Vote Projection | Battleground States | Media Bias Average