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NATIONAL

STATES

OHIO

OHIO - Obama vs. McCain
Ref's Projection: McCain Wins
Ranges of Support Considering Margin of Error Without Undecided
Obama 45.7 - 52.8
McCain 42.8 - 49.6
Undecided 4.7 - Undecided will break for McCain and put him over the top.
Poll Dates Sample MoE McCain Obama
Ref's Poll Averages
10/28-11/2 914V 3.4 46.2 49.1
10/31-11/2 1208LV 2.8 48 50
10/30-11/2 600LV 4.1 44 50
10/29-11/2 1221LV 2.7 45.7 51.5
10/28-10/29 625LV - 47 45
10/26-10/27 648LV 3.9 45 49
10/26 1000LV 3.0 45 49
10/23-10/26 600LV 4.1 45 50
10/20-10/22 1200LV 3.0 48 45
10/18-10/22 886LV 3.3 46 49
10/19-10/21 737LV 3.5 46 50
10/4-10/7 600LV 4.0 45 48
10/4-10/5 1239LV 2.8 43 49
10/3-10/6 749LV 3.5 47 50
10/3-10/5 772LV 3.5 45 51
10/5 1000LV 3.0 48 47
9/24-10/3 2262LV 2.0 42 49
9/27-9/29 825LV 3.4 39 54
         
9/28-9/29 693LV 3.8 49 48
9/28 500LV 4.5 48 47
9/22 545LV 4.1 46 46
9/21 500LV 4.5 50 46
9/12-9/16 869LV 3.3 48 42
9/14-9/17 600RV 4.0 45 46
9/11-9/15 400RV 4.9 42 41
9/10-9/13 600LV 4.0 50 44
9/14-9/16 913RV 3.0 47 49
9/13-9/14 1077LV 3.0 48 44
9/14 500LV 4.5 48 45
9/12-9/14 692LV 3.8 49 45
9/5-9/10 775LV 3.5 48 44
9/5-9/7 1200LV 3.0 48 44
9/10 503LV 4.3 48 47
9/5-9/9 1367V 2.7 44 49
9/5-9/7 600LV 4.0 51 44
8/31-9/2 685RV 3.5 45 47
8/17-8/24 1234LV 2.8 43 44
8/12-8/21 2102RV 2.2 42 41
8/18 700LV 4.0 48 43
8/12-8/14 950LV 3.2 45 45
7/23-7/29 1229LV 2.8 44 46
7/21 500LV 4.5 52 42
7/17-7/20 1058LV 3.0 40 48
6/11-6/30 2172LV 2.1 38 43
6/20-6/22 580LV 4.2 46 48
6/17 500LV 4.5 44 43
6/9-6/16 1396LV 2.6 42 48
5/17-5/18 733LV 3.6 39 50
5/13-5/20 1244RV 2.8 44 40
5/16-5/18 600RV 4.1 39 48
5/15 500LV 4.5 45 44
4/23-4/29 1127RV 2.9 43 42
4/11-4/13 527RV 4.3 47 45
4/8 500LV 4.0 47 40
3/24-3/31 1238RV 2.9 42 43
3/15-3/17 621LV 3.9 49 41
3/14-3/16 532RV 4.3 50 43
3/13 500LV 4.5 46 40
*The Ref's Averages do not include extreme outlier polls that are demonstrably inaccurate.
*The Ref's Averages do not include Internet polls.

 

OHIO - Clinton vs. McCain
Clinton Leads by 7.0%
Poll Dates Sample MoE Clinton McCain
Ref's Poll Averages
5/13-5/20 872V 3.7 49.0 42.0
5/13-5/20 1244RV 2.8 48 41
5/15 500LV 4.5 50 43
4/23-4/29 1127RV 2.9 48 38
4/11-4/13 527RV 4.3 53 42
4/8 500LV 4.0 42 47
3/24-3/31 1238RV 2.9 48 39
3/15-3/17 621LV 3.9 45 44
3/14-3/16 532RV 4.3 50 44
3/13 500LV 4.5 40 46

 

OHIO REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
McCain Leads by 28.9%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
The Ref's Averages
2/21-3/3 783V 4.0 56.9 28.0 7.0
3/2-3/3 600LV 4.0 59 28 9
3/1-3/3 712LV 3.7 59 29 5
2/29-3/2 674LV 3.9 61 28 5
3/1-3/2 455LV 4.6 58 29 4
2/28-3/2 319LV 5.4 53.4 23.7 6.9
3/1-3/2 612LV 4.0 50 33 10
2/29-3/1 600LV 4.0 59 26 12
2/21-2/29 2082LV 2.0 64 24 -
2/27-2/28 600LV 4.0 63 21 9
2/26-2/28 592LV 4.1 62 19 8
2/25 704LV 4.0 55 29 7
2/23-2/25 456LV 4.6 59 28 8
2/23-2/24 430LV 4.7 55 30 7
2/23-2/24 600LV 4.0 51 40 6
2/21 730LV 4.0 57 30 4
2/18-2/23 312LV 5.5 55 20 5
2/17-2/18 478LV 4.5 61 29 5
2/10-2/11 524LV 4.4 50 36 6
9/14-9/16
9
8/28-9/3
497RV
4.4
10

 

OHIO DEMOCRATIC PRMARY
Clinton Leads by 8.4%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Clinton
Obama
The Ref's Averages
2/21-3/3 874V 3.5 50.6 42.2
3/2-3/3 600LV 4.0 56 42
3/1-3/3 828LV 3.4 44 44
3/2 858LV 3.0 50 44
2/29-3/2 761LV 3.6 45 47
2/27-3/2 799LV 3.5 49 45
3/1-3/2 400LV 4.0 52 40
3/1-3/2 873LV 3.4 54 44
2/28-3/2 613LV 3.9 51.3 42.3
3/1-3/2 1112LV 2.9 51 42
2/29-3/1 600LV 4.0 51 44
2/27-2/29 625LV 4.0 47 43
2/21-2/29 2308LV 2.0 56 40
2/26-2/28 600LV 4.0 46 38
2/26-2/28 708LV 3.8 44 42
2/25 862LV 3.0 48 43
2/23-2/25 790LV 3.6 50 44
2/23-2/24 600LV 4.0 50 46
2/23-2/24 600LV 4.0 49 39
2/21-2/24 529LV 4.3 47 39
2/18-2/23 741LV 3.6 51 40
2/21 902LV 3.0 48 40
2/16-2/20 611LV 4.0 50 43
2/17-2/18 773LV 3.7 52 43
2/13 754LV 4.0 51 37
2/6-2/12 564LV 4.1 55 34
2/10-2/11 720LV 3.7 56 39
9/14-9/16
43
23
8/26-8/29
600LV
4.0
22
21