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DELEGATE COUNT

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WHY THE REF'S AVERAGES ARE SUPERIOR TO OTHER AVERAGES

NATIONAL

STATES

 

 

McCain-Palin vs. Obama-Biden

  • ALL VOTERS
  • LIKELY VOTERS ONLY
  • INCLUDING ALL POLLS
Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 6.1%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/1-10/9 1200V - 43.1 49.2
10/7-10/9 3000LV 4.0 45 50
10/7-10/9 2784RV 2.0 41 51
10/7-10/9 838LV 3.2 41 48
10/6-10/9 800LV - 43 51
10/7-10/9 1203LV 2.8 43 48
10/8-10/9 900RV 3.0 39 46
10/3-10/6 1053LV - 44 50
10/4-10/5 658RV 3.8 43 49
10/2-10/6 858RV 3.3 40 47
10/4-10/6 1200LV 3.0 45 49
10/3-10/5 616LV - 45 48
10/3-10/5 694LV 3.5 45 53
10/1-10/5 1000LV - 46 49

Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 5.5%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/1-10/9 1156LV - 44.1 49.6
10/7-10/9 3000LV 4.0 45 50
10/7-10/9 838LV 3.2 41 48
10/6-10/9 800LV - 43 51
10/7-10/9 1203LV 2.8 43 48
10/3-10/6 1053LV - 44 50
10/4-10/6 1200LV 3.0 45 49
10/3-10/5 616LV - 45 48
10/3-10/5 694LV 3.5 45 53
10/1-10/5 1000LV - 46 49

Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 6.1%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/1-10/9 1200V - 43.1 49.2
10/7-10/9 3000LV 4.0 45 50
10/7-10/9 2784RV 2.0 41 51
10/7-10/9 838LV 3.2 41 48
10/6-10/9 800LV - 43 51
10/7-10/9 1203LV 2.8 43 48
10/8-10/9 900RV 3.0 39 46
10/3-10/6 1053LV - 44 50
10/4-10/5 658RV 3.8 43 49
10/2-10/6 858RV 3.3 40 47
10/4-10/6 1200LV 3.0 45 49
10/3-10/5 616LV - 45 48
10/3-10/5 694LV 3.5 45 53
10/1-10/5 1000LV - 46 49


 

Ref's Electoral Vote Projection

Obama - 212    McCain - 160    Toss Up - 166

 

Including Leaners

Obama - 333      McCain - 174   Toss Up - 31

CLICK ON A STATE TO SEE THE LATEST POLL NUMBERS

California - 55 EV - Obama Colorado - 9 EV Florida - 27 EV Georgia - 15 EV Iowa - 7 EV Maryland - 10 EV Michigan - 17 EV Missouri - 11 EV New Hampshire - 4 EV New Jersey - 15 EV Nevada - 5 EV North Carolina - 15 EV Ohio - 20 EV Pennsylvania - 21 EV South Carolina - 8 EV Texas - 34 EV Virginia - 13 EV Wisconsin - 10 EV Arizona - 10 EV New York - 31 EV Alabama - 9 EV Connecticut - 7 EV Delaware - 3 EV Illinois - 21 EV Massachusetts - 12 EV Minnesota - 10 EV Oklahoma - 7 EV Tennessee - 11 EV Utah - 5 EV Rhode Island - 4 EV Vermont - 3 EV Indiana - 11 EV Kentucky - 8 EV West Virginia - 5 EV Washington - 11 EV Oregon - 7 EV Idaho - 4 EV Montana - 3 EV North Dakota - 3 EV South Dakota - 3 EV Wyoming - 3 EV Nebraska - 5 EV Kansas - 6 EV New Mexico - 5 EV Arkansas - 6 EV Louisiana - 9 EV Mississippi - 6 EV Maine - 4 EV

Alaska Hawaii Hawaii Alaska - 3 EV Hawaii - 4 EV           

STATE
ELECTORAL VOTES
McCAIN
OBAMA
LEADER
2004
Alabama
9
+21.5
-
McCain
Bush +26
Alaska
3
+16.0
-
McCain
Bush +25
Arizona
10
+17.0
-
McCain
Bush +11
Arkansas
6
+13.0
-
McCain
Bush +9.76
California
55
-
+16.0
Obama
Kerry +9.95
Colorado
9
-
+3.0
Lean Obama
Bush +4.67
Connecticut
7
-
+12.0
Obama
Kerry +10
Delaware
3
-
+11.0
Obama
Kerry +7.60
Dist. of Columbia
3
-
+69.0
Obama
Kerry +81
Florida
27
-
+4.0
Lean Obama
Bush +5.01
Georgia
15
+8.3
-
McCain
Bush +17
Hawaii
4
-
+31.0
Obama
Kerry +8.75
Idaho
4
+43.0
-
McCain
Bush +39.0
Illinois
21
-
+8.5
Obama
Kerry +11.0
Indiana
11
+3.2
-
Lean McCain
Bush +21.0
Iowa
7
-
+7.6
Obama
Bush +0.67
Kansas
6
+31.0
-
McCain
Bush +25.0
Kentucky
8
+20.0
-
McCain
Bush +20.0
Louisiana
9
+7.0
-
McCain
Bush +15.0
Maine
4
-
+6.3
Obama
Kerry +8.99
Maryland
10
-
+13.5
Obama
Kerry +13.0
Massachusetts
12
-
+12.5
Obama
Kerry +25.0
Michigan
17
-
+4.0
Lean Obama
Kerry +3.42
Mississippi
6
+16.0
-
McCain
Bush +20.0
Missouri
11
+0.8
-
Toss Up
Bush +7.20
Minnesota
10
-
+4.2
Lean Obama
Kerry +3.48
Montana
3
+8.0
-
McCain
Bush
5
+26.0
-
McCain
Bush
Nevada
5
-
+1.0
Toss Up
Bush +2.59
New Hampshire
4
-
+2.9
Lean Obama
Kerry +1.37
New Jersey
15
-
+9.0
Obama
Kerry +6.68
New Mexico
5
-
+6.3
Obama
Bush +0.79
New York
31
-
+7.5
Obama
Kerry +19.0
North Carolina
15
-
+1.5
Toss Up
Bush +12.0
North Dakota
3
+11.5
-
McCain
Bush +27
Ohio
20
-
+3.5
Lean Obama
Bush +2.11
Oklahoma
7
+31.5
-
McCain
Bush +32.0
Oregon
7
-
+5.5
Obama
Kerry +4.16
Pennsylvania
21
-
+5.7
Obama
Kerry +2.5
Rhode Island
4
-
+22.5
Obama
Kerry +21.0
South Carolina
8
+14.0
-
McCain
Bush +17.0
South Dakota
3
+4.0
-
McCain
Bush +21.0
Tennessee
11
+20.0
-
McCain
Bush +14.0
Texas
34
+21.0
-
McCain
Bush +23.0
Utah
5
+37.0
-
McCain
Bush +46.0
Vermont
3
-
+34.0
Obama
Kerry +20.0
Virginia
13
-
+5.3
Lean Obama
Bush +8.20
Washington
11
-
+4.3
Lean Obama
Kerry +7.18
West Virginia
5
+4.5
-
McCain
Bush +13.0
Wisconsin
10
-
+4.5
Lean Obama
Kerry +0.38
Wyoming
3
+28.5
-
McCain
Bush +40.0
           

Alaska