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FLORIDA

Florida - Obama vs. McCain
Ref's Projection - McCain Wins
Range of Potential Vote Considering Margin of Error without undecided
Obama 43.9 - 50.7
McCain 42.4 - 49.2
Undecided - 6.9 - McCain will win most of the undecided
Poll Dates Sample MoE McCain Obama
The Ref's Averages
 10/27-11/2 998V 3.4 45.8 47.3
10/30-11/2 600LV 4.1 46 48
10/27-11/2 1773LV 2.3 45 47
10/28-10/29 625LV 4.0 45 47
10/29-10/30 995RV 3.1 47 47
10/23-10/26 600LV 4.1 47 47
10/22 562LV 4.0 47 48
St. Pete Times (We are not including registered voter polls at this late date)
 10/20-10/22 800RV 3.5 42 49
10/20-10/22 1200LV 3.0 48 46
10/20-10/21 625LV 4.0 46 45
10/16-10/20 1433LV 2.6 44 49
10/19 1000LV 3.0 49 48
10/16-10/19 1158LV 2.9 47 48
10/16 553LV 4.3 49 47
10/8 700LV 4.0 47 50
10/4-10/6 625RV 4.0 46 48
10/5 1000LV 3.0 45 52
9/30 532LV 4.0 46 49
9/27-9/30 600LV 4.0 42 46
9/28-9/30 770LV 3.5 47 51
9/27-9/29 1161LV 2.9 43 51
9/28 500LV 4.5 47 47
9/27-9/28 599LV 4.1 48 47
9/21-9/23 1200LV 3.0 48 45
9/16-9/18 625LV 4.0 45 47
9/21 500LV 4.5 51 46
9/14-9/17 800RV 3.5 47 45
9/15-9/18 600LV 4.0 46 45
9/16-9/17 707Adults 3.8 51 45
9/11-9/15 402RV 4.9 44 44
9/13-9/15 600LV 4.0 46 46
9/14-9/16 907RV 3.5 48 48
9/14 500LV 4.5 49 44
9/10 511LV 4.3 50 42
9/5-9/9 1032LV 3.1 50 43
9/6-9/7 968LV 3.1 50 45
9/7 500LV 4.5 48 48
8/25-8/26 625LV 4.0 45 44
8/22-8/24 1200LV 3.0 49 42
8/17-8/24 1069LV 3.0 47 43
8/18-8/21 605RV 4.0 42 39
8/18-8/20 600LV 4.0 47 46
8/18 700LV 4.5 48 46
8/11 418RV 5.0 48 44
8/1-8/3 679RV 3.8 50 44
7/30-8/2 807LV 3.5 47 44
7/23-7/29 1248LV 2.8 44 46
7/22 500LV 4.5 47 49
7/19-7/21 600LV 4.0 47 45
6/11-6/30 3731LV 1.6 43 39
6/26-6/29 723LV 3.6 44 46
6/27-6/29 1200LV 3.0 49 41
6/26-6/29 723LV 3.6 44 46
6/26 500LV 4.5 48 41
6/18 500LV 4.5 47 39
6/9-6/16 1453LV 2.6 43 47
6/13-6/17 600LV 4.0 44 49
5/13-5/20 1419LV 2.6 45 41
5/19 500LV 4.0 50 40
4/23-4/29 1411RV 2.6 41 49
4/10 500LV 4.5 53 38
3/24-3/31 1136RV 2.9 46 37
3/15-3/16 618LV 3.9 50 39
3/12 500LV 4.5 47 43
*The Ref's Averages do not include Internet polls.

 

FLORIDA - CLINTON vs. McCAIN
Clinton Leads by 6.5%
Poll Dates Sample MoE McCain Clinton
The Ref's Averages
 5/13-5/20 960V 3.6 41.0 47.5
5/13-5/20 1419LV 2.6 41 48
5/19 500LV 4.0 41 47
4/23-4/29 1411RV 2.6 44 43
4/10 500LV 4.5 44 45
3/24-3/31 1136RV 2.9 42 44
3/15-3/16 618LV 3.9 47 43
3/12 500LV 4.5 47 40

 

FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Clinton Leads by 16.0%
Poll Date Sample MoE Clilnton Obama Edwards
Possible Second Democratic Primary
The Ref's Averages
 Insufficient Data for Averages
3/6 602LV 4.0 55 39 -
First Democratic Primary Averages - Clinton +21.4%
The Ref's Averages
 1/23-1/27 528V 4.3 49.6 28.2 13.8
1/24-1/27 481LV 4.5 50 30 12
1/25-1/27 600LV 4.5 49 36 11
1/25 437LV 4.0 44 25 19
1/23-1/24 600LV 4.0 58 20 15
1/23-1/24 522LV 4.4 47 30 12
1/23 508LV 4.0 51 26 13
1/22-1/23 400LV 5.0 47 25 16
1/20-1/22 LV 5.4 42 23 12
1/20-1/22 577LV (4.0)e 47 36 12
1/20-1/21 600LV 4.0 59 21 14
1/20-1/21 517LV 4.4 56 23 12
1/14-1/16 500LV 4.5 50 28 13
1/15-1/16 360LV 5.5 42 34 9
1/11-1/13 577LV 4.0(e) 45 39 11
1/11-1/13 601LV 4.0 56 23 14
1/9-1/13 421LV 4.8 52 31 9
1/9-1/12 682LV 4.0 48 24 14
1/7 303LV 6.0 40 32 9
1/5-1/7 541LV 4.2 40 28 19
12/12-12/18 397LV 4.9 43 21 19
12/15-12/16 495LV 4.5 53 21 19
12/14-12/16 600LV 4.5 48 31 6
12/2-12/3 503LV 4.4 54 24 13
11/9-11/11 Unknown Unknown 47 27 8
11/2-11/5 451LV 4.7 56 19 14
10/17-10/22 416RV 4.8 43 18 12
9/19-9/20 527LV   47 22 11
9/15-9/18 600RV 4.0 47 19 9
9/6-9/10
500LV
36
18
7
9/3-9/9
446RV
42
13
9