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NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINA- McCain vs. Obama
Ref's Projection: McCain Wins
Range of Potential Vote Considering Margin of Error Without Undecideds
McCain 45.3 - 52.7
Obama 43.1 - 51.5
Undecided 3.2 - Undecided will break for McCain and put him over 50%.
Polls Date Sample MoE McCain Obama
The Ref's Averages
 10/29-11/2 717V 3.7 49.0 47.8
11/2 1000LV 3.0 50 49
10/30-11/2 600LV 4.1 49 48
10/29-10/30 625LV 4.0 49 46
10/29 641LV 3.7 48 48
10/23-10/26 600LV 4.1 46 50
10/23 700LV 4.0 48 50
10/20-10/21 500LV 4.5 46 48
10/19-10/21 644LV 4.0 47 51
10/18-10/20 600LV 4.2 45 48
10/18-10/20 627LV 4.0 47 47
10/19 700LV 3.0 48 51
10/19 698LV 3.6 48 49
10/8 700LV 4.0 48 49
10/5-10/6 617LV 4.0 49 46
10/3-10/6 666LV 4.0 49 49
10/4-10/5 1202LV 2.8 44 50
9/29-10/2 477Adults 4.6 42 44
9/30-10/1 700LV 4.0 47 50
9/28-9/29 1041LV 3.0 45 47
9/23 500LV 4.5 47 49
9/17-9/20 600RV 4.0 45 45
9/18 500LV 4.5 50 47
9/17-9/19 1060LV 3.0 46 46
9/14-9/16 910RV 3.5 48 47
9/6-9/10 600RV 4.2 47 44
9/9 626LV 3.9 48 44
9/6-9/8 671LV 3.8 58 38
8/20-8/26 852LV 3.0 47 44
8/20-8/23 904LV 3.3 45 42
8/19 614LV 4.0 45 43
8/14-8/17 600RV 4.2 46 40
8/13 700LV 4.0 50 44
8/9-8/11 655LV 3.9 49 45
7/23-7/27 823LV 3.4 47 44
7/14-7/16 600LV 4.2 43 40
7/15 500LV 4.5 48 45
7/12-7/14 676LV 3.8 50 45
6/11-6/30 1340LV 2.7 38 47
6/26-6/29 1048LV 3.0 45 41
6/11-6/13 600RV 4.0 45 41
6/10 500LV 4.5 45 43
5/28-5/29 543LV 4.2 43 40
5/17-5/19 713LV 3.7 51 43
5/14-5/17 800RV - 44 39
5/8 500LV 4.5 48 45
*The Ref's Averages do not include polls of adults as opposed to registered or likely voters.

 

NORTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Obama Leads by 8.3%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
 Obama
Clinton
The Ref's Averages
 4/26-5/5 661v 3.9 50.1 41.8
5/4-5/5 643LV 3.9 51 37
5/5 774LV 3.0 47 43
5/4 781LV 3.0 48 45
5/3-5/4 870LV 3.3 53 43
5/2-5/4 600LV 4.0 50 42
5/1 831LV 3.5 49 40
5/1 611LV 3.8 49 44
4/30-5/1 600LV 4.0 52 41
4/29-4/30 500LV 4.5 51 44
4/29 571RV 3.8 42 44
4/28-4/29 400LV 5.0 49 42
4/28 774LV 4.0 51 37
4/26-4/28 727LV 3.7 49 44
4/26-4/27 600LV 4.0 52 42
4/26-4/27 1121LV 2.9 51 39
4/19-4/21 734LV 3.7 50 41
4/19-4/20 962LV 3.2 57 32
4/14-4/15 600LV 4.0 52 41
4/14 541LV 4.0 51 36
4/10-4/14 687LV 4.0 47 34
4/12-4/13 538LV 4.2 54 34
4/9-4/10 800RV 3.7 45 27
4/5-4/7 725LV 3.7 49 39
4/5-4/6 928LV 3.2 54 33
4/3 704LV 4.0 56 33
3/29-4/1 400LV - 35 26
3/29-3/30 600LV 4.0 51 38
3/29-3/30 1100LV 3.0 54 36
3/26 406LV 4.0 49 34
3/24 673LV 3.8 55 34
3/17 521LV 4.3 44 43
3/8-3/10 713LV 3.7 49 41
3/6 716LV 4.0 47 40
3/3 508LV 4.3 47 43
2/19-2/22 RV - 38 24
2/18-2/21 307LV 5.71 45 31
2/11 580LV 4.2 50 40
11/2-11/5 580LV 4.2 19 53
10/3 621RV   20 32
9/5
645LV
3.8
21
30
8/26-8/29
600LV
4.0
21
22

NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
McCain Leads by 23.3%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
 McCain Huckabee Paul
The Ref's Averages
 2/11-2/22 352V 5.5 52.3 29.0 4.7
2/19-2/22 RV - 50 23 6
2/18-2/21 268LV 6.11 62 24 3
2/11 436LV 4.8 45 40 5
1/12-1/14 485LV 4.5 27 28 3
11/2-11/5 453LV 4.7 13    
10/3 755RV   11    
9/5
645LV
3.8
7
    
8/26-8/29
60LV
4.0
12