SUPER TUESDAY CHART OF 24 STATES CLICK HERE
Paul McCartney: "Send my love to the aliens"
NASA to launch Beatles tune into space
The Ref 9:36 PM | Permalink
It matters
World is watching US presidential race
The Ref 9:31 PM | Permalink
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Microsoft and Yahoo: Bloggers React
"Even in the snarky blogosphere, tech industry commentators were taken aback by Microsoft's unsolicited bid to acquire Yahoo."
The Ref 2:16 PM | Permalink
Third undersea Internet cable cut in Mideast
"An undersea cable carrying Internet traffic was cut off the Persian Gulf emirate of Dubai . . ."
The Ref 2:11 PM | Permalink
Bank required life insurance policy to loan money to McCain
" . . . had to take out a special life insurance policy in case he did not survive the campaign." With Crucial Loan, McCain Put His Bid Back in the Black
The Ref 2:03 PM | Permalink
Scientist: All Blue-Eyed People Are Related
" . . . all blue-eyed people share a common ancestor, presumably someone who lived 6,000 to 10,000 years ago."
The Ref 1:52 PM | Permalink
Huckabee Gives McCain the Advantage
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SUPER TUESDAY STATES
Huckabee cannot win the nomination because he does not contend against McCain in blue states even without Romney in the race. Romney could win or contend in the blue states absent Huckabee's presence in the race. Unlike in blue states, however, Huckabee polls well in the South and even leads in critical winner take all Georgia. It is in the South and in some states in the Midwest where Huckabee undermines Romney the most and threatens to hand the nomination to McCain.
Upon examining the Super Tuesday state polls one cannot escape the conclusion that absent Huckabee's presence in the race Romney would win the majority of delegates on February 5th. Huckabee bleeds a great deal of conservative support from Romney in all Super Tuesday states. Nine states in particular, where Romney would otherwise win vital winner take all states and a majority of congressional districts, most clearly tell the tale.
Missouri and Georgia represent the two states where Huckabee undermines Romney the most. Without Huckabee in the race these two winner take all states would go to Romney and almost completely offset McCain’s certain wins in New York and New Jersey.
As for Georgia Huckabee leads there but Romney lies only five points back. Romney would win Georgia without Huckabee in the race and take its seventy-two delegates in the winner take all state, largely countering McCain’s New York win.
McCain barely leads Huckabee in Missouri and outpaces Romney by nine points. Huckabee takes 26% of the votes in the polls. Romney would likely eliminate the gap between himself and McCain and win the state's fifty-eight winner take all delegates without Huckabee in the race. One quarreling with this assumption ignores the fact that McCain is coming close to maximizing his vote as demonstrated by exit polls in Florida that showed conservatives overwhelmingly voted for Romney and Huckabee.
Huckabee’s second most significant blow to Romney comes in California. Romney only trails McCain by seven points there while Huckabee polls at 10.5%. Absent Huckabee Romney would inherit most of his votes and likely split the state with McCain, although probably losing the at-large bonus delegates. Despite losing the state Romney would take a large number of delegates from California and put a major dent in McCain’s blue state delegate tally.
In Alabama, Illinois, Minnesota, Tennessee and Oklahoma, Romney would either win the majority of delegates or come in a close second without Huckabee’s presence in the race. All of these states distribute delegates on a somewhat proportional basis, meaning second place matters.
First, in Alabama McCain's support is likely not to rise much above 30%. Huckabee barely trails McCain there and Romney lays ten points back. Without Huckabee Romney would likely split the vote with McCain and maybe win the state taking a majority of the proportional at-large bonus delegates. Even if McCain won the state, Romney would still take substantially more delegates than he will with Huckabee running.
Second, Romney would split Illinois's delegates with McCain absent Huckabee where now he stands to take at best a fourth of the Illinois delegates. Third, in Minnesota where delegates are awarded proportionally, Romney would split the state with McCain. Fourth, Oklahoma continues the trend. Huckabee takes a large portion of the Oklahoma vote, barely trailing McCain. Romney would take more districts and win the at large bonus without Huckabee in the race. Fifth, In Tennessee Romney would take the majority of the proportionally awarded delegates.
Finally, in states where polls are not available, specifically Arkansas, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia, Romney would likely win each state if Huckabee did not run. With Huckabee in the race McCain might win a few or even most of those states.
Huckabee supporters will argue that Romney is stealing the race from Huckabee, but Huckabee shows no or very little strength in blue states and finished poorly in Florida and New Hampshire. This failure to appeal nationally represents the reason why one can fairly label Huckabee, and not Romney, the spoiler for conservatives.
Simply put, Huckabee splits the conservative vote with Romney thus handing McCain a substantial majority of Super Tuesday delegates. All is not lost, however, for Romney. Even with Huckabee in the race Romney may end up with 300 to 400 delegates after Super Tuesday while McCain will probably end up with 700 to 800 total delegates. A contender must earn 1191 delegates to win the nomination.
If Huckabee drops out after Super Tuesday or conservatives unite behind Romney, Romney would still stand a chance of winning the nomination. McCain, at that point, would still need 400 to 500 delegates to secure the nomination. One thing is certain, however, Huckabee represents the only reason McCain has a chance in this nomination race. In a two way race, as demonstrated by McCain’s narrow leads over either Romney or Huckabee in a large number of states and the exit polls showing conservatives mostly splitting their votes between Huckabee and Romney, Romney would win the nomination.
The Ref 12:14 AM | Permalink