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DELEGATE COUNT
Poll Averages Last Updated 5/5/08
 Obama +2.4%
 Obama 46.4
 Clinton 44.0
See All Polls
 Upcoming States (Dems)
Indiana (5/6): Clinton 48.9, Obama 42.1        Clinton +6.8
North Carolina (5/6): Obama 49.9, Clinton 42.3 Obama +7.6
West Virginia (5/13): Clinton 55.0, Obama 27.0 Clinton +28.0
Kentucky (5/20): Clinton 63.0, Obama 27.0      Clinton +36.0
Obama vs. McCain -  Obama +0.2%
 Obama 45.7
 McCain 45.5
Clinton vs. McCain - Clinton +3.7%
 Clinton 47.8
 McCain 44.1
See All Head-to-Head Polls
Top 5 Battleground States
Nat'l
Obama vs. McCain
  
Ref's Avg. of Battle- grounds
McCain +1.9
  
Clinton +0.2
PA
TIED
  
FL  
OH  
MO  
IA  
       

Ref's Poll Notes

The nine-point lead Hillary has over McCain in the AP-Ipsos poll is out of sync with the other polls.  We have to wait and see if other polls find her lead increasing to determine if this is an anomaly.  There does, however, seem to be definite movement in North Carolina with Obama's lead shrinking.  Three polls all put his lead at around ten points.

You might have noticed that Obama's lead over Clinton in the Democratic nomination dropped from 10.0 points to 5.2 points overnight.  This occurred because the Newsweek poll showing a 19-point lead was replaced with the new Newsweek numbers showing a 7-point lead.  The 19-point lead was an anomaly.  No other poll showed a lead nearly that large for Obama. 

Now that Pennsylvania has concluded, Indiana and North Carolina represent the most important states in this Democratic primary. Watch to see if Hillary can cut into Obama's large North Carolina lead or build up a lead in Indiana. If the numbers remain as they are now, that's bad news for Hillary. Her Indiana lead is small and tenuous and she trails badly in North Carolina.  The best she can probably hope for is a wash in terms of popular vote between these two states.  If she does that she's succeeded.  It doesn't look like she will do that at this point.

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Offer More

Photo Attributions

 

 

 

 

OBAMA DANGER ZONE: Clinton's Lead in Indiana within 1 point of Obama's North Carolina Lead - If Obama does not add some more to his popular vote lead on Tuesday, he will likely fall behind when counting Florida (not Michigan) votes after the Kentucky and West Virginia primaries, at least temporarily.

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