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Poll Averages Last Updated 4/30/08
 Obama +3.3%
 Obama 46.3
 Clinton 43.0
 Upcoming States (Dems)
West Virginia (5/13): Clinton 55.0, Obama 27.0 Clinton +28.0
Kentucky (5/20): Clinton 63.0, Obama 27.0      Clinton +36.0
Obama vs. McCain -  Obama +0.4%
 Obama 45.3
 McCain 44.9
Clinton vs. McCain - Clinton +2.9%
 Clinton 47.0
 McCain 44.1
Top 5 Battleground States
Ref's Avg. of Battle- grounds
McCain +4.7
McCain +1.1

Ref's Poll Notes

The nine-point lead Hillary has over McCain in the AP-Ipsos poll is out of sync with the other polls.  We have to wait and see if other polls find her lead increasing to determine if this is an anomaly.  There does, however, seem to be definite movement in North Carolina with Obama's lead shrinking.  Three polls all put his lead at around ten points.

You might have noticed that Obama's lead over Clinton in the Democratic nomination dropped from 10.0 points to 5.2 points overnight.  This occurred because the Newsweek poll showing a 19-point lead was replaced with the new Newsweek numbers showing a 7-point lead.  The 19-point lead was an anomaly.  No other poll showed a lead nearly that large for Obama. 

Now that Pennsylvania has concluded, Indiana and North Carolina represent the most important states in this Democratic primary. Watch to see if Hillary can cut into Obama's large North Carolina lead or build up a lead in Indiana. If the numbers remain as they are now, that's bad news for Hillary. Her Indiana lead is small and tenuous and she trails badly in North Carolina.  The best she can probably hope for is a wash in terms of popular vote between these two states.  If she does that she's succeeded.  It doesn't look like she will do that at this point.

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Offer More

Photo Attributions






Ref's Call: Judgment              Photo Attribution

Where's the Fire?  Was Obama really angry yesterday?  Compare Yesterday's Press Conference with Genuinely angry Barack from two weeks ago

Obama's Test: Will offensive against Wright pay off in the primaries?

Transcript: Obama Press Conference on Jeremiah Wright

Obama’s Break With Ex-Pastor Sets Sharp Shift in Tone - The New York Times thought that we saw angry Barack yesterday.  I seem to remember Barack looking quite a bit angrier before

The Audacity of Rev. Wright

Medicare "drifting towards disaster": U.S. official

More oil drilling a must, Bush says

McCain Offers Market-Based Health Plan

Al Franken to Pay $70,000 in Back Taxes

Roving Defender of Evolution, and of Room for God - Guy better watch his back. Academia is not a fan.  Not to mention that he just doesn't get what the "movement" is really about.

Time to Stockpile Food?

Memory Training Shown to Turn Up Brainpower

Detectives: 40 Drowning Victims May Have Been Murdered by 'Smiley Face Gang'

Miley Spokeswoman: Parents Not Present for Bedsheet Shot

Michigan Man Protests Losing His Son After Mistakenly Giving Him Alcoholic Lemonade

Yesterday's press conference: Is this what Obama looks like when he's angry? Compare this clip with the following one.  Where's the fire?


FLASHBACK: This is what Barack looks like when he's angry.

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