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Poll Averages Last Updated 5/1/08
 Obama +5.0%
 Obama 47.4
 Clinton 42.4
 Upcoming States (Dems)
West Virginia (5/13): Clinton 55.0, Obama 27.0 Clinton +28.0
Kentucky (5/20): Clinton 63.0, Obama 27.0      Clinton +36.0
Obama vs. McCain -  Obama +0.4%
 Obama 45.3
 McCain 44.9
Clinton vs. McCain - Clinton +2.9%
 Clinton 47.0
 McCain 44.1
Top 5 Battleground States
Ref's Avg. of Battle- grounds
McCain +4.7
McCain +1.1

Ref's Poll Notes

The nine-point lead Hillary has over McCain in the AP-Ipsos poll is out of sync with the other polls.  We have to wait and see if other polls find her lead increasing to determine if this is an anomaly.  There does, however, seem to be definite movement in North Carolina with Obama's lead shrinking.  Three polls all put his lead at around ten points.

You might have noticed that Obama's lead over Clinton in the Democratic nomination dropped from 10.0 points to 5.2 points overnight.  This occurred because the Newsweek poll showing a 19-point lead was replaced with the new Newsweek numbers showing a 7-point lead.  The 19-point lead was an anomaly.  No other poll showed a lead nearly that large for Obama. 

Now that Pennsylvania has concluded, Indiana and North Carolina represent the most important states in this Democratic primary. Watch to see if Hillary can cut into Obama's large North Carolina lead or build up a lead in Indiana. If the numbers remain as they are now, that's bad news for Hillary. Her Indiana lead is small and tenuous and she trails badly in North Carolina.  The best she can probably hope for is a wash in terms of popular vote between these two states.  If she does that she's succeeded.  It doesn't look like she will do that at this point.

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Offer More

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Poll: More Democrats think Clinton can beat McCain than think Obama can - This represents a major shift in voter perception.  If it holds up then it is safe to conclude that Jeremiah Wright has substanitally affected this race. Even if Obama wins the nomination, he would take it as a candidate backed up by less Democratic confidence than he otherwise would have had.  This is relevant to how the media covers him, fundraising and his own confidence, all important political variables.  See the Fox News poll here.

Obama's North Carolina lead down to 7.8%

Primary Loss and Furor Over Ex-Pastor Hurt Obama in Poll - The New York Times offers excuses for Obama's bad showing, but for now Obama is no longer the assumed strongest Democratic candidate.  Both the Fox News and NYT polls show this.

Hillary Does O'Reilly - See It

Ref's Call: Judgment 

Liberal Boston Globe defends Jeremiah Wright: The 'Wright problem' belongs to America

NYT attempts to end Obama's troubles with Wright with the "final word."  Doubt this one is over:  A Strained Wright-Obama Bond Finally Snaps

MoveOn Tangles With RNC Over Ad Slamming McCain for ‘100 Years' Remark

McCain is ‘Natural Born’ and Eligible for Presidency, Senate Confirms

Obama Takes Heat for Opposing Gas Tax Holiday

Iran Condemns Clinton for Threatening to Attack

People of Lesbos take gay group to court over term 'Lesbian'

CIA chief says China's rapid military buildup troubling

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5 Myths About Coping With College

Hillary on the O'Reilly Factor (Part 1 - Continued Below)


Hillary on the O'Reilly Factor (Part 2)

Hillary on the O'Reilly Factor (Part 3 - Continued Below)


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