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10/30/16
Hillary Clinton is a very weak incumbent, Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.0
HILLARY DANGER ZONE: 4.5 points below 50%, challenger with high levels of voter enthusiasm, her voters have low enthusiasm, FBI just reopened a criminal investigation
An incumbent, or someone filling the place of one like Hillary Clinton, should be above 45.5% in polls if that incumbent is going to win. That Trump is so close to her, her shortfall of 4.5 percent from the critical fifty percent safe zone for incumbents, and an enthusiasm gap of historic levels in the favor of her opponent, indicates that her candidacy is waning and that she is headed for likely defeat.National - Clinton +1.5, Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.0Battleground States - Clinton +1.4% Trump is running about the same in the battleground states, the more relevant polls, where he trails by 1.4%. Trump needs to gain 1.4% in those states or the poll error in Clinton's favor must be 1.4% to render the race a tossup. In Brexit, the average of polls had an error of 6%. It is notable that national and state polls are coming together now. This indicates, as has been apparent, that a number of national pollsters have been padding Hillary's leads. This isn't hyperbole. It has been obvious because of the difference between bellwether state and national polls. |
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| Clinton +1.5% | ||||||
Poll |
Date |
Sample |
Weight Applied |
MoE |
Clinton |
Trump |
| Ref's Avg | 10/19-10/29 | - | - | - | 45.5 | 44.0 |
| 10/24-10/29 | 1039LV | - | 3.3 | 44 | 42 | |
| 10/23-10/29 | 3220LV | - | 4.5 | 44 | 46 | |
| 10/26-10/29 | 1268LV | - | 3.0 | 46 | 45 | |
| 10/25-10/27 | 1500LV | - | 2.5 | 45 | 45 | |
| 10/22-10/26 | 1209LV | - | 3.3 | 46 | 41 | |
| Gravis | 10/25-10/26 | 1824RV | - | 2.3 | 46 | 45 |
| 10/19-10/25 | 1349LV | - | 3.0 | 49 | 47 | |
| Fox News | 10/22-10/25 | 1221LV | - | 2.5 | 44 | 41 |
| I try to keep all data within a one week range when close to an election as late deciders move fast. Polls that substantially diverge from the other national polls and the bellwether state polls will be weighted down. See an example. Only one poll per media organization is included. This average mixes head-to-head polls with four-way polls. Four-way polls are better because they match reality, but some head-to-head polls, like the LA Times/Daybreak (4th most accurate 2012) and UPI/CVoter (8th most accurate 2012) polls, offer reliable data. Not all head-to-head polls are useful, in fact most are not because there will be a large third-party vote this year. Often news organizations or particular shows, like the Kelly File, will report only those head-to-head numbers because they artificially inflate Hillary's lead. Perhaps because the LA Times/Daybreak and UPI/CVoter are Internet polls, this bias seems less pronounced rendering those polls worth inclusion. | ||||||