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Reuters/Ipsos shows Trump up in Colorado and Nevada, tied in Wisconsin and Michigan


Trump has a very good chance of winning 265 electoral votes by winning the following states, FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ and NV. His problem comes in that he needs to add one more state from the following list. CO, NH, WI, MI, NM, PA or ME.

The Reuters/Ipsos polls have some good news for Trump on both sides of the equation. In both Nevada and Colorado, their most recent finding shows Trump two points up. Trump is leading 44 to 42 in Nevada and 45 to 43 in Colorado.

Trump is also drawing to a tie in Wisconsin and Michigan in the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling. In Wisconsin the two candidates are tied at 42. In Michigan they each pull 39.

Some other polls in Colorado show a different picture, but the state has been somewhat volatile. It may be hard to get a good feel for Colorado until very close to the election.

It would not be a surprise for Nevada to go to Trump. Much of the polling in the state is showing a close race.

Wisconsin would be more of a surprise than Nevada. The conventional wisdom labels this a blue state, but Trump has turned Ohio into a likely red state because of its demographics. Wisconsin shares some substantial similarity to Ohio demographically, so it's certainly a real possibility.

Last, Michigan is a surprise. Most polls do not show Trump very close there. But with Trump's different message, Michigan very may be there in the end if Trump takes the lead in national polls. Follow my new account on Twitter for daily updates on the election!






Click here for Complete Ref's Battleground Index

Nevada Clinton 42.3, Trump 43.0
Las Vegas Review-Journal 9/27-9/29 800LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
*Reuters/Ipsos 9/9-9/29 333LV Clinton 42, Trump 44
Suffolk 9/27-9/29 500LV Clinton 44, Trump 38
Fox News 9/18-9/20 704LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
Rasmussen Reports 9/16-9/18 800LV Clinton 39, Trump 42
Monmouth 9/11-9/13 406LV Clinton 42, Trump 44
Wisconsin Clinton 45.3, Trump 42.0
*Reuters/Ipsos 9/16-9/29 592LV Clinton 42, Trump 42
CVoter Intl 9/12-9/25 553LV Clinton 50, Trump 46
Emerson 9/19-9/20 700LV Clinton 45, Trump 38
Marquette 9/15-9/18 677LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
Colorado Clinton 42.6, Trump 41.8
Monmouth 9/29-10/2 400LV Clinton 49, Trump 38
*Reuters/Ipsos 9/16-9/29 463LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
PPP (Dem Poll) 9/27-9/28 694LV Clinton 46, Trump 40
CNN/ORC 9/20-9/25 784LV Clinton 41, Trump 42
CBS/YouGov 9/21-9/23 991RV Clinton 40, Trump 39
Gravis 9/22-9/23 799RV Clinton 37, Trump 41
Quinnipiac 9/13-9/21 612LV Clinton 47, Trump 47
Emerson 9/9-9/13 600LV Clinton 38, Trump 42

More Analysis from the Ref

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Ref's Ruling: Recent NBC Polls Seem to Show Flawed Voter Turnout Models

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Trump broke 50% in Nevada prediction

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2nd Amendment comments won't hurt & everyone will know that in a week

First Sabato, now Nate Silver hedging his shaky bet

Sabato hedging his big bet on Clinton, admits Trump may be one state away

Trump pulls ahead in Florida poll average

More CBS/YouGov "likely" voter polls that are really registered voter polls

The Washington Post mega-poll is not predictive in an election context

Latest battleground numbers show the race tied on Labor day