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Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

The NBC/WSJ poll released on Monday, with its high margin of error of 4.6%, looks like a poll intended to reach a certain result. The eleven-point margin is nowhere close to accurate if the point of the poll is to determine where the popular vote is right now. If the poll is intended to show that Republicans were disgusted by Trump's words on a tape eleven years ago over the weekend when the tape ran wall-to-wall, it achieved that.

This kind of poll, often provided to us by the NBC/WSJ unit, serves to throw off poll averages. The poll fails all three prongs of the test and will be weighted down in the averages. If I am wrong and other polls reflect this radical shift, I will remove the weight. Somehow I don't think that will happen. If the poll fails only two prongs of the test, incidentally, no weight would be applied.

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Foul Called on NBC/WSJ Poll

Penalty: 0.5 weight applied in poll averages. It will count only half as much as other polls.

Flag of the United States National Polls

FAILED: Other national polls +2.5 Clinton, NBC/WSJ poll +9.0 Clinton. Well outside the five-point acceptable range.

Flag of Ohio Ohio

FAILED: OH +0.7 Clinton, NBC/WSJ poll +9.0 Clinton, well outside the acceptable five-point range.

  Ohio Dem Natl Dem Ohio GOP Natl GOP
2012 50.7 51.0 47.7 47.2
2008 51.5 52.9 46.9 45.7
2004 48.7 48.3 50.8 50.7
2000 46.5 47.4 50.0 47.9
1996 47.4 49.2 41.0 40.7


Flag of FloridaFlorida

FAILED: FL+1.8 Clinton. WSJ/NBC poll +9.0 Clinton, well outside the acceptable five-point range.

  Florida Dem Natl Dem Florida GOP Natl GOP
2012 50.0 51.0 49.1 47.2
2008 51.0 52.9 48.2 45.7
2004 47.1 48.3 52.1 50.7
2000 48.8 47.4 48.8 47.9
1996 48.0 49.2 42.3 40.7

More Analysis from the Ref

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Rasmussen Reports: TRUMP HOLDS THE LEAD

Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

Why the post-debate polls for CNN and YouGov are wrong

Reuters/Ipsos Battlegrounds: Still a close race

UPI/CVoter: Trump up three in Pennsylvania and Florida, within two in NH, CO and WI

CONCLUSION ON FIRST DEBATE: Hillary won, impact was real but small and easily reversible

Reuters/Ipsos shows Trump up in Colorado and Nevada, tied in Wisconsin and Michigan

Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight


PPP pads it's Democrat voter sample to find slim leads for Hillary in NC and FL

No Glenn Beck, Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win