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CONCLUSION ON FIRST DEBATE: Hillary won, impact was real but small and easily reversible
Hillary won the first debate based on the fact that her battleground and national polls improved. Considering that not all debates move the polls, it is significant that she managed to improve by nearly two points nationally. The win was real in terms of the polls, but the gains are small and potentially easily reversed. Much of her gain came from Republicans unhappy with Trump's demeanor in the debate and the week following. Mike Pence may have reversed that negative trend and brought many of those Republicans back to Trump. We should know that by Sunday, when the second presidential debate is scheduled.
After seven days of post-debate polling, Clinton gained 1.71% in an average of national polls and has modestly increased support in five of the ten battlegrounds. Trump has increased in one battleground.
For five days, the polls did not reflect much of a shift nationally. In the next two days, a few polls came out that changed that a bit. Averaging all of the changes in the polls that have been released, we see that Clinton has gained on Trump nationally by 1.7%. What we are seeing is a contrast in findings. The pollsters that poll new voters each time are finding a shift for Clinton. Pollsters that track the same voters or do a tracking method are finding a bump for Trump. It's hard to know who is right. The "fundamentals" crowd will likely side with the traditional pollsters, but they are really not finding a different result in their registered voter sample. They are finding the Democrats are now more likely to vote, thereby resulting in the bump.
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All of this underscores the challenge this election, who will vote? We don't know. The traditional pollsters are assuming a 2012 type turnout, but that is really in question. Of the ten battleground states, five of them shifted toward Hillary while one, Ohio, shifted toward Trump. None of the shifts were huge. One poll showed Clinton up 11 in Colorado, but I suspect that is an outlier. We will see. No states have dropped out of competitive status. It doesn't look like folks are changing their minds at this point, but that Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents have become more likely to vote and Republicans and Republican leaners less so. This could all change if Trump reassures those voters potentially available to him that he is up to the job. The discussion over the former Miss Universe consumed the headlines during this time period.
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