My Twitter account is just getting started. Follow me here!
National Likely Voters - Clinton 40.6, Trump 40.4 Battleground States - Trump leads by 0.50 points

No Glenn Beck, Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win

No matter where you look, if you're watching the MSM or a NeverTrumper is on the screen, you will hear the statement that Trump needs to win Pennsylvania. NeverTrumper Glenn Beck pushes this notion on his show regularly. The reason they do this is to put all the focus on Pennsylvania, where it is always an uphill fight for a Republican and the polls often look tough. Glenn knows that he has Trump supporters in his audience and his goal is to demoralize them. Unfortunately, he often distorts the truth or simply misstates it, to accomplish this goal. Trump absolutely does NOT need Pennsylvania to win.

The Glenn Beck crew plays a game where they pretend to be generous with electoral votes, assuming that Trump will win where he may not, and then they hit you with a demoralizing, gulp inducing statement, he still loses! There are a couple of problems with this. First, he is not being generous by assuming Trump will win North Carolina or Iowa. Trump is definitely up in Iowa and North Carolina is a tossup, but probably leans Trump. Remember, Obama didn't win the state when he had the biggest non-white voter turnout in history, which will almost certainly not be replicated this time.

The next problem becomes apparent when you actually do the math along with Glenn, Pat and Stu. They either can't do math or they are misrepresenting the truth. You decide.

Listen to this example where Glenn is being "generous," yet he refuses to assume that Trump will win Nevada, despite the fact that Trump is ahead there. He also questions whether Trump will win Texas. What? Glenn then asks what happens if Trump wins Colorado, which would make it an electoral tie, 269-269. If it's a tie, then Trump will win because of the GOP holding more state delegations in the House in this Congress. In a tie, this Congress would break the tie in favor of Trump, no doubt.

Perhaps they were assuming that Trump wouldn't win the second district in Maine, but Trump is leading there, so they shouldn't assume that.

Despite this truth, Glenn concludes his Friday show with an attempt to demoralize the Trump supporters in his audience. We expect this kind of behavior from the MSM, but Glenn Beck pretends to be above partisan rancor, stating that he is only interested in the truth. Maybe he shouldn't use distortions to push his narrative if he wants us to believe that.

Follow my new account on Twitter for daily updates on the election!


Listen to Glenn put all the chips on Pennsylvania here

Glenn Beck (25657341265) 

In all battlegrounds, Trump leads by 0.50 points. In the map below, we see the scenario imagined by Glenn, Pat and Stu, and yes, Trump wins in this scenario.

Click the map to create your own at


Trump can win in numerous realistic scenarios without Pennsylvania. Here are four of them. See my battleground index

Scenario 1 (270EV): Trump loses VA, NH and NV, wins FL, NC, OH, WI, IA, AZ - Trump +1.58

Scenario 2 (270EV): Trump loses VA and WI, wins FL, OH, NC, IA, NV, AZ, NH - Trump +1.36

Scenario 3 (273EV): Trump loses WI, IA and NH, wins VA, FL, OH, NC, NV, AZ - Clinton +0.70

Scenario 4 (276EV): Trump loses VA and NH, wins FL, OH, NC, WI, IA, NV, AZ - Trump +1.50


ADR, 16--09-19