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Rasmussen Reports: TRUMP HOLDS THE LEAD

Trump trailed by seven in this poll just four days ago



For the second straight day, Trump leads Hillary Clinton by two points in the Rasmussen Reports three-day tracking poll, receiving 43% to Clinton's 41%.

Trump steadily narrowed the deficit from seven points, to five, four and has now taken the lead and held it for a second day. See the poll here.

The LA Times tracking poll shows the two candidates in a dead heat. Aside from those two polls, most national polls show a lead for Hillary.

It is important to remember that pollsters are making assumptions about turnout that impact their poll numbers. More pollsters are assuming that Democrats will have an equal or better turnout than they did in 2012. That is a risky assumption, but it's driving this poll lead for Hillary in the other national polls.






Daily Oct. Surprise tracker 

  October Surprise After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days
National Shift --- 1.45 to Clinton 3.4 to Clinton 3.08 to Clinton 3.09 to Clinton 2.51 to Clinton    

See the full results here

Another factor in analyzing the usefulness of national polls is the impact of the national media dog pile on Trump. Take the Fox News poll for example. The Fox poll shows Trump trailing by seven points nationally at the same time that Marist poll finds Trump leading by one in Ohio and trailing by four in North Carolina. Those two states have functioned as bellwethers for some time, especially Ohio.

Why would the national poll vary so strongly from the bellwethers? I suspect that national polls tend to reflect the media dog pile more so than the battleground states where Trump is simultaneously putting out his message, counteracting the impact of that national coverage. It is important to remember that it is the battleground states that matter, not the national number.

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Here is a view from the huge crowd in Cincinnati last night.

More Analysis from the Ref

James O'Keefe promises devastating releases next week. He discussed it Friday on

Rasmussen Reports: TRUMP HOLDS THE LEAD

Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

Why the post-debate polls for CNN and YouGov are wrong

Reuters/Ipsos Battlegrounds: Still a close race

UPI/CVoter: Trump up three in Pennsylvania and Florida, within two in NH, CO and WI

CONCLUSION ON FIRST DEBATE: Hillary won, impact was real but small and easily reversible

Reuters/Ipsos shows Trump up in Colorado and Nevada, tied in Wisconsin and Michigan

Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight


PPP pads it's Democrat voter sample to find slim leads for Hillary in NC and FL

No Glenn Beck, Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win