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UPI/CVoter: Trump up three in Pennsylvania and Florida, within two in NH, CO and WI
Trump has a very good chance of winning 265 electoral votes by winning the following states, FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ and NV. His problem comes in that he needs to add one more state from the following list. CO, NH, WI, MI, NM, PA or ME. After Reuters/Ipsos released good news on both sides of this equation, UPI/CVoter has followed suit. In the CVoter state polls that poll 250 voters per week, for a two-week total of 500 voters, Trump is seen leading in Florida by three (48.9-46.3) and Pennsylvania also by three (49.5-46.4) If Trump is in fact leading in these two states, he is likely on his way to victory. The poll also shows Trump within one point in New Hampshire (48.4-47.5). As mentioned above, if Trump secures the 265 electoral votes from FL, NC, OH, IA, NV and AZ, he will only need to win New Hampshire to reach the necessary 269 electoral votes for election. Trump would win a tie. The same analysis applies to Wisconsin and Colorado, where the polls finds Trump down two in both states. In Wisconsin the results were 49.6 to 47.1 for Clinton. in Colorado Clinton edges Trump 48.3 to 46.6. If Trump secures the 265 electoral votes from his base states, he would only need one of these states, Colorado, Wisconsin or New Hampshire. Looking at the polling averages, this race is certainly within reach for Trump and may just in fact be a tossup right now. The national edge Hillary carries is probably a result of voter turnout models that assume a very large African-American and millennial turnout. I do not share that assumption. It is also quite possible for Hillary to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. Obama was a unique candidate. I don't see lightning striking again for Democratic turnout like it did in 2008 and 2012. All the evidence shows that African-Americans and millennials are not excited by Clinton or the prospect of Trump winning. Clinton has had her unchallenged shot at these voters and she failed to inspire them. Most pollsters, Sabato and Nate Silver are assuming this Obama machine will show up, but I just don't see the evidence for that assumption.
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