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UPI/CVoter: Trump up three in Pennsylvania and Florida, within two in NH, CO and WI

Trump has a very good chance of winning 265 electoral votes by winning the following states, FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ and NV. His problem comes in that he needs to add one more state from the following list. CO, NH, WI, MI, NM, PA or ME.

After Reuters/Ipsos released good news on both sides of this equation, UPI/CVoter has followed suit. In the CVoter state polls that poll 250 voters per week, for a two-week total of 500 voters, Trump is seen leading in Florida by three (48.9-46.3) and Pennsylvania also by three (49.5-46.4)

If Trump is in fact leading in these two states, he is likely on his way to victory.

The poll also shows Trump within one point in New Hampshire (48.4-47.5). As mentioned above, if Trump secures the 265 electoral votes from FL, NC, OH, IA, NV and AZ, he will only need to win New Hampshire to reach the necessary 269 electoral votes for election. Trump would win a tie.

The same analysis applies to Wisconsin and Colorado, where the polls finds Trump down two in both states. In Wisconsin the results were 49.6 to 47.1 for Clinton. in Colorado Clinton edges Trump 48.3 to 46.6. If Trump secures the 265 electoral votes from his base states, he would only need one of these states, Colorado, Wisconsin or New Hampshire.

Looking at the polling averages, this race is certainly within reach for Trump and may just in fact be a tossup right now. The national edge Hillary carries is probably a result of voter turnout models that assume a very large African-American and millennial turnout. I do not share that assumption. It is also quite possible for Hillary to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote.

Obama was a unique candidate. I don't see lightning striking again for Democratic turnout like it did in 2008 and 2012. All the evidence shows that African-Americans and millennials are not excited by Clinton or the prospect of Trump winning. Clinton has had her unchallenged shot at these voters and she failed to inspire them. Most pollsters, Sabato and Nate Silver are assuming this Obama machine will show up, but I just don't see the evidence for that assumption.

Click here for Complete Ref's Battleground Index

Florida Clinton 45.0, Trump 44.5
Emerson 10/2-10/4 600LV Clinton 44, Trump 45
UPI/CVoter 9/20-10/2 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 49
Quinnipiac Univ 9/27-10/2 545LV Clinton 46, Trump 41
Reuters/Ipsos 9/16-9/29 701LV Clinton 48, Trump 46
Opinion Savvy 9/28-9/29 619LV Clinton 47, Trump 46
PPP 9/27-9/28 826LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
Mason-Dixon 9/27-9/29 820LV Clinton 46, Trump 44
Fox 13/Opinion Survey 9/28-9/29 619LV Clinton 47, Trump 46
Suffolk 9/19-9/21 500LV Clinton 44, Trump 45
Monmouth 9/16-9/19 400LV Clinton 46, Trump 41
NYT/Sienna 9/10-9/14 867LV Clinton 41, Trump 40
CNN/ORC 9/7-9/12 788LV Clinton 44, Trump 47
JMC Analytics 9/7-9/8 781LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
Pennsylvania Clinton 45.4, Trump 41.6
UPI/CVoter 9/20-10/2 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 49
Franklin & Marshall 9/28-10/2 496LV Clinton 47, Trump 38
Monmouth 9/30-10/3 402LV Clinotn 50, Trump 40
Quinnipiac Univ 9/27-10/2 535LV Clinton 45, Trump 41
Reuters/Ipsos 9/23-9/29 500LV Clinton 45, Trump 42
PPP 9/27-9/28 886LV Clinton 45, Trump 39
Gravis 9/23 949LV Clinton 46, Trump 43
CNN/ORC 9/20-9/25 771LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
Morning Call 9/19-9/23 486LV Clinton 40, Trump 38
Wisconsin Clinton 44.8, Trump 42.3
UPI/CVoter 9/20-10/2 500LV Clinton 48, Trump 47
Reuters/Ipsos 9/16-9/29 592LV Clinton 42, Trump 42
Emerson 9/19-9/20 700LV Clinton 45, Trump 38
Marquette 9/15-9/18 677LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
Colorado Clinton 43.2, Trump 42.3
UPI/CVoter 9/20-10/2 500LV Clinton 48, Trump 47
Monmouth 9/29-10/2 400LV Clinton 49, Trump 38
Reuters/Ipsos 9/16-9/29 463LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
PPP (Dem Poll) 9/27-9/28 694LV Clinton 46, Trump 40
CNN/ORC 9/20-9/25 784LV Clinton 41, Trump 42
CBS/YouGov 9/21-9/23 991RV Clinton 40, Trump 39
Gravis 9/22-9/23 799RV Clinton 37, Trump 41
Quinnipiac 9/13-9/21 612LV Clinton 47, Trump 47
Emerson 9/9-9/13 600LV Clinton 38, Trump 42



More Analysis from the Ref

Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight


PPP pads it's Democrat voter sample to find slim leads for Hillary in NC and FL

Ref's Ruling: Recent NBC Polls Seem to Show Flawed Voter Turnout Models

Trump jumping ahead in Colorado polls, up 3.5%

Trump broke 50% in Nevada prediction

No Glenn Beck, Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win

2nd Amendment comments won't hurt & everyone will know that in a week

First Sabato, now Nate Silver hedging his shaky bet

Sabato hedging his big bet on Clinton, admits Trump may be one state away

Trump pulls ahead in Florida poll average

More CBS/YouGov "likely" voter polls that are really registered voter polls

The Washington Post mega-poll is not predictive in an election context

Latest battleground numbers show the race tied on Labor day