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Analyzing October surprise impact

Ten days ago, three October surprises hit this election, Trump's tape, Hillary's speeches and Podesta's emails. I have tracked the changes in the national and state polling and it appears Clinton has gained just over two points nationally and in the battleground states. Certainly this is not the final outcome of these scandals as they continue to play out. The majority of major media has focused mostly on Trump's problems. If Clinton's problems gain more focus her numbers will likely move down. Trump also has the chance to continue to rebut the accusations or they may just fade as a factor. He said/she said sexual allegations often have a short shelf life. So far, however, it is clear that Clinton has gained two points because of the October surprises. Final results for the seven-day October surprise tracker are below.

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National Polls   October Surprise After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days National Shift --- 1.45 to Clinton 3.4 to Clinton 3.08 to Clinton 3.09 to Clinton 2.51 to Clinton 2.38 to Clinton 2.20 to Clinton                   LA Times Clinton 43.0, Trump 46.1 Clinton 43.3, Trump 45.5 Clinton 42.7, Trump 45.8 Clinton 45.3, Trump 43.3 Clinton 44.4, Trump 44.0 Clinton 44.2, Trump 44.3 Clinton 44.1, Trump 44.2 Clinton 43.9, Trump 44.5 Margin Trump +3.1 Trump +2.2 Trump +3.1 Trump +2.0 Clinton +0.4 Trump +0.1 Trump +0.1 Trump +0.6 Shift   0.9 to Clinton No Shift 1.0 to Clinton 3.5 to Clinton 3.0 to Clinton 3.0 to Clinton 2.5 to Clinton                   Economist/YouGov Clinton 43, Trump 40   Clinton 44, Trump 38           Margin Clinton +3.0   Clinton +6.0           Shift     3.0 to Clinton                             CNN/ORC Clinton 47, Trump 42               Margin Clinton +5.0               Shift                                   CBS News Clinton 45, Trump 41               Margin Clinton +4.0               Shift                                   NBC/SM Clinton 46, Trump 40               Margin Clinton +6.0               Shift                                 UPI Clinton 47.7, Trump 46.7   Clinton 49.9, Trump 44.4   Clinton 50.2, Trump 44.1 Clinton 50.3, Trump 45.2     Margin Clinton +1.0   Clinton +5.5   Clinton +6.1 Clinton +5.1     Shift     4.5 to Clinton   5.1 to Clinton 4.1 to Clinton                       PPP (Dem poll) Clinton 44, Trump 40               Margin Clinton +4.0               Shift                                   Rasmussen Reports Clinton 43, Trump 42   Clinton 45, Trump 38 Clinton 44, Trump 39 Clinton 43, Trump 39 Clinton 41, Trump 43     Margin Clinton +1.0   Clinton +7.0 Clinton +5.0 Clinton +4.0 Trump +2.0     Shift     6.0 to Clinton 4.0 to Clinton 3.0 to Clinton 3.0 to Trump                       Fox News Clinton 44, Trump 42         Clinton 45, Trump 38     Margin Clinton +2.0         Clinton +7.0     Shift           5.0 to Clinton                       Quinnipiac Clinton 45, Trump 40               Margin Clinton +5.0               Shift                                   Gravis Clinton 44, Trump 44               Margin TIED               Shift                                   Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 42, Trump 36       Clinton 44, Trump 37       Margin Clinton +6.0       Clinton +7.0       Shift         1.0 to Clinton                         Morning Consult Clinton 41, Trump 39 Clinton 42, Trump 38   Clinton 42, Trump 37         Margin Clinton +2.0 Clinton +4.0   Clinton +5.0         Shift   2.0 to Clinton   3.0 to Clinton                           ABC/WaPo Clinton 46, Trump 44             Clinton 47, Trump 43 Margin Clinton +2.0             Clinton +4.0 Shift               2.0 to Clinton   Battleground Index                     October Surprise After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days Overall Shift TIED TIED Clinton +1.3 Clinton +1.3 Clinton +1.4 Clinton +1.5 Clinton +1.5 Clinton +2.1 Florida Clinton +1.0   Clinton +1.8   Clinton +2.2     Clinton +2.2 Ohio Trump +1.0   Clinton +0.7     Clinton +0.5   Clinton +.01 North Carolina TIED   Clinton +0.8     Clinton +1.5   Clinton +1.8 Pennsylvania Clinton +3.8   Clinton +5.1     Clinton +5.3   Clinton +5.2 Wisconsin Clinton +2.5   Clinton +5.0   Clinton +5.3     Clinton +5.4 Iowa Trump +4.5   Trump +3.6         Trump +3.0 Nevada Trump +0.5   Clinton +1.3         Clinton +1.8 Arizona Trump +2.8   Trump +2.6         Trump +1.8 Colorado Clinton +0.8   Clinton +3.3         Clinton +4.9 New Hampshire --             Clinton +4.5   Competitive States October Surprise After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days FL, NC, OH, PA, WI, IA, CO, NV, AZ No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change New Hampshire added to the battleground index Follow my new account on Twitter for daily updates!

More Analysis from the Ref James O'Keefe promises devastating releases next week. He discussed it Friday on reddit.com/r/The_Donald. Rasmussen Reports: TRUMP HOLDS THE LEAD Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result Why the post-debate polls for CNN and YouGov are wrong Reuters/Ipsos Battlegrounds: Still a close race UPI/CVoter: Trump up three in Pennsylvania and Florida, within two in NH, CO and WI CONCLUSION ON FIRST DEBATE: Hillary won, impact was real but small and easily reversible Reuters/Ipsos shows Trump up in Colorado and Nevada, tied in Wisconsin and Michigan Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight DAILY POST-DEBATE TRACKER PPP pads it's Democrat voter sample to find slim leads for Hillary in NC and FL No Glenn Beck, Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win