• HOME
• ABOUT
• VIDEOS
• WIRES
• POLL CENTER
• RSS
• CONTACT
• ARCHIVES
• SHARE

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 2.8%
Giuliani	22.4
Huckabee	19.6
Romney	15.1
McCain	13.8
Thompson	11.7
Paul	4.8
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 17.0%
Clinton	43.4
Obama	26.4
Edwards	13.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +10.1%
Obama +1.0%
New Hampshire
Romney +8.7%
Clinton +5.9%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	45.5
Giuliani	44.0
Clinton	47.3
Thompson	41.3
Clinton	43.0
McCain	46.0
Clinton	47.0
Romney	43.0
Clinton	46.0
Huckabee	43.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

The Question Hillary Didn't Want Asked      | Safety

It's been said often, Hillary has a strategy of inevitability. But now that Obama has taken the lead in Iowa in the Ref's Poll Averages and in New Hampshire in some polls, that strategy seems to have failed. 

Certainly she wanted to ride the veil of inevitability as far as possible, and she's done that. There is no question that she no longer seems inevitable, although she may still be. Her advantage among women in the Democratic Party, a party dominated by women, may yet prove to make her unbeatable.

Regardless of how unbeatable she may be the Clintons have to assume the worst. Because the Clintons are now afraid you can expect the hardnosed campaign to begin drawing a clear contrast. In other words, Obama had better watch out. 

Expect the Clinton campaign to drive the experience point home and to be aggressive in doing so. The Clinton campaign will attack Obama in inverse proportion to the size of her lead in the polls. Be watchful because we may witness some of the most memorable ads and attacks of the coming election year over the next seventeen days. 

The Clinton campaign will do these things because the question they didn't want asked, is Hillary really inevitable, has been asked everywhere and the answer is no.

• See Previous Calls

Thanks to FreeFind for providing the search technology for this website.  

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Governor Huckabee Frequently "sided with liberal Democrats"

Charming and Aloof, Huckabee Changed State - New York Times | December 22, 2007

Tony Blair Decides to Become Catholic

Tony Blair Converts to Catholicism- New York Post, AP | December 22, 2007

Romney to Require Illegal Aliens to Go Home After a "Set Time"

Romney Would Allow Illegals to Stay for Unspecified Time
- CNSNews.com | December 21, 2007

Anatomy of Obama's Rise

Message, Method Are Behind Obama's Climb- Washington Post | December 22, 2007

Hillary Wants Bill There

Hillary Clinton Embraces Her Husband's Legacy- Washington Post | December 22, 2007

About the Ref - Latest Videos - Political Wires - Poll Center - RSS - Contact the Ref - Archives - The Ref's Calls