Political Ref picked the electoral college and popular vote in 2016. Compare below. Find the Political Ref at FreedomWindow.net |
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METHOD: I used the same method I have used since 2008. I analyzed thousands of polls throughout 2016 to develop a voter model. I compared national numbers and state numbers in developing this model. I applied this voter model to 142 polls in 11 battleground states from the last two weeks. I also applied this voter model to the national polls. I achieved very high accuracy in both predictions. NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: I projected the national popular vote with an error of only 0.7%. You can see a summary of how I did this here, including time stamp. Actual Popular Vote: Clinton 48.0, Trump 46.6
Here is a link to my first electoral projection on 11/4/16, archived at freerepublic.com. In this projection, I was projecting that Trump would win Michigan. I nearly gave it to Trump in the last projection, but the national polls broke for Hillary and CCES poll had it at six points, so I didn't. I also made a video of this first projection linked here. Bad audio.
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Electoral Vote
Electoral Vote
