December 19, 2007

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15 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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And You Can Quote Me             - Media Notes

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THE LATEST AND MOST ACCURATE POLL NUMBERS EVERY DAY - SEE BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Averages
Giuliani Leads by 3.3%
Giuliani 22.9
Huckabee
 19.6
Romney 14.9
McCain 12.5
Thompson 10.8
Paul 4.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 14.1%
Clinton 42.9
Obama 28.8
Edwards 12.8
See All Polls
Iowa
Huckabee +7.8%
Obama +0.6%
New Hampshire
Romney +14.8%
Clinton +7.0%
South Carolina
Huckabee +6.7%
Clinton +1.9%
Michigan
Romney +5.5%
Clinton +24.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +3.8%
Clinton +23.5% No Delegates
Nevada
Giuliani +13.4%
Clinton +19.5%
Clinton 45.5
Giuliani 44.0
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 43.0
McCain 46.0
Clinton 47.0
Romney 43.0
Clinton 46.0
Huckabee 43.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

The Ref's Calls

The Question Hillary Didn't Want Asked      | Safety

It's been said often, Hillary has a strategy of inevitability. But now that Obama has taken the lead in Iowa in the Ref's Poll Averages and in New Hampshire in some polls, that strategy seems to have failed. 

Certainly she wanted to ride the veil of inevitability as far as possible, and she's done that. There is no question that she no longer seems inevitable, although she may still be. Her advantage among women in the Democratic Party, a party dominated by women, may yet prove to make her unbeatable.

Regardless of how unbeatable she may be the Clintons have to assume the worst. Because the Clintons are now afraid you can expect the hardnosed campaign to begin drawing a clear contrast. In other words, Obama had better watch out. 

Expect the Clinton campaign to drive the experience point home and to be aggressive in doing so. The Clinton campaign will attack Obama in inverse proportion to the size of her lead in the polls. Be watchful because we may witness some of the most memorable ads and attacks of the coming election year over the next seventeen days. 

The Clinton campaign will do these things because the question they didn't want asked, is Hillary really inevitable, has been asked everywhere and the answer is no.

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Did John Edwards Father a Lovechild?  "It was a story going around--I'd been hearing it for months?

         Gloomy? Polls Continue to Forecast Problems for Hillary

Ron Paul a Possible General Election Factor

Spending Showdowns

Whoops - Romney Unaware of Employment Verification System He Could Have Used to Avoid Hiring Illegals

             Whitehouse: "We are reducing our nuclear weapons"

Romney's Attack will be the Liberal Charge

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