17 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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National Health Service in UK Denies Prostate Cancer Sufferers

The Forgotten Chinese

Giuliani too Negative on Illegal Immigrants?

Many Complain About Clinton Library Access

Archbishop of Canterbury Supports Gay Rights Stand of Church

Liverpool Edits the Nativity Story

More on French Politician Who Faces Jail for Favorable Comments About Nazis

Musharraf Moves to Contain Dangerous Arsenal

NASA Love Triangle Emails

Huckabee took thousands in gifts

Tony Blair stars with Barney the dog

GOP win an indication of a comeback?

Analysis: National polls pushed by Iowa

India and Missile Defense

French politician may serve 1 year jail term for "conspiring to justify war crimes"

Jodie Foster comes out as lesbian

For Fred Thompson, a lot of what ifs

Pope insists that global warming predictions be firmly based

Oprah's no Bubba

NBC not sitting pretty

Hello, may I speak with President Bush

Latest poll analysis

Babies are full of it, CO2 that is

News readers are leaders

Chris Matthews: “Why is the liberal media giving Huckabee a free ride?”

Evolution speeding up?

Beer and liquor equals weakened performance

Are Muslims destroying Europe?

New perspective on our Milky Way galaxy

Gore won't play second, third, or ninth fiddle

NY Post Cover: Obama, "For sale by Oprah"

Romney's mess

Obama does not have enough wrinkles for some

Security funds for mistress OK?  Rudy: No but "that isn't the right way to analyze it."

Wow . . .

Rudy profile in New York Times

Now Romney, Washington Post profile

Rudy stiffarms Russert

Atheist outrage

China: To pageant contestant . . . wear what I say!

In sickness, in health and in COMBAT

Ron Paul . . . above it all

Candidate humor

Hillary melting in New Hampshire

Blaming faith for 911?

Follow up: MAJOR BREAK OVER GAY CONSECRATIONS

Is Huckabee up to the challenge?

Endangered feces?

Spreading tech to the third world

Copycat?

Change on U.S. warming views?

Huckabee examination begins

Gore snubs speech attendees

Democrats gain some but do they lose more on amnesty issue?

Dems taking their time

Will hear about this in the "mainstream" press . . Does it matter? 

Rupert's successor advances

"We can no longer tolerate the fact that you have severe breath odor while on duty."

Ham for Hanukkah?

Conservatives should accept the "reality" of global warming?

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THE LATEST AND MOST ACCURATE POLL NUMBERS EVERY DAY - SEE BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Averages
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 3.5%
Giuliani 23.1
Huckabee 19.6
Romney 14.1
McCain 12.6
Thompson 11.0
Paul 4.4
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 18.5%
Clinton 43.1
Obama 24.6
Edwards 12.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS (EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +7.8%
Obama +0.6%
New Hampshire
Romney +14.8%
Clinton +7.0%
South Carolina
Huckabee +1.0%
Clinton +6.2%
Michigan
Romney +5.5%
Clinton +24.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +11.0%
Clinton +33.5% No Delegates
Nevada
Giuliani +13.4%
Clinton +19.5%
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
Clinton 45.5
Giuliani 44.0
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 43.0
McCain 46.0
Clinton 47.0
Romney 43.0
Clinton 46.0
Huckabee 43.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

The Ref's Calls

The Question Hillary Didn't Want Asked      | Safety

It's been said often, Hillary has a strategy of inevitability. But now that Obama has taken the lead in Iowa in the Ref's Poll Averages and in New Hampshire in some polls, that strategy seems to have failed. 

Certainly she wanted to ride the veil of inevitability as far as possible, and she's done that. There is no question that she no longer seems inevitable, although she may still be. Her advantage among women in the Democratic Party, a party dominated by women, may yet prove to make her unbeatable.

Regardless of how unbeatable she may be the Clintons have to assume the worst. Because the Clintons are now afraid you can expect the hardnosed campaign to begin drawing a clear contrast. In other words, Obama had better watch out. 

Expect the Clinton campaign to drive the experience point home and to be aggressive in doing so. The Clinton campaign will attack Obama in inverse proportion to the size of her lead in the polls. Be watchful because we may witness some of the most memorable ads and attacks of the coming election year over the next seventeen days. 

The Clinton campaign will do these things because the question they didn't want asked, is Hillary really inevitable, has been asked everywhere and the answer is no.

The Ron Paul Factor   | Zeroing in on the Play

Ron Paul's performance in the polls does not suggest that he will contend in any of the primaries. But with one of the most loyal bases in the primaries on either side, Ron Paul can certainly be a factor in the general election if he carries on beyond the primaries.

Ron Paul has said he will not run as an Independent. The Libertarians, however, have said they would accept him as their nominee. See Libertarians Tackle the Ron Paul Dilemma.  But I would be surprised if Paul decided to run as a Libertarian.

If Ron Paul were to run with any party he would present a problem for the Republican nominee. One must assume that a substantial portion of Paul's vote will vote Republican if he does not run.  It is difficult to say what considerations will weigh in on Paul's decision or if the impact a Paul run will have on the Republicans will be a major factor in his decision.

So the question is not will he win the Republican nomination because the polls suggest that he will not, but will he run on a third party ticket. Paul says no right now. We'll see. With the kind of passionate support he receives from his base he could certainly fund a respectable third party run.

Why the Old Rules Do Not Apply             | Start the Clock

Repeatedly one hears the pundits say, if Rudy doesn't win any of the first four states he's finished, he can't win. That is not true.

Typically this would be true but two facts combine to make this year the one that bucks the trend. First, the early primaries take place over a week whereas before they ruminated for at least a month. 

Because there will be less time to ponder the implications of New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina they will have less air time and less impact.

Second, the overwhelming concern for national security prevalent in the Republican Party makes Rudy a strong candidate in every state that is not dominated by social conservatives. Because blue state delegates carry just as much weight as red state delegates, the early states simply do not have as much impact. 

Iowa and New Hampshire are not Bible belt states but enough conservatives exist in the states to make it difficult for Giuliani to win. Romney, and now Huckabee, have successfully drawn that contrast. 

But in the rest of the states where not nearly as much attention is paid they have not done that. So Giuliani will have the ability to ignore the early states and ride the national security issue predominance to wins in plenty of later states. 

For those pundits who consistently say Rudy can't sit out the first week, you need to buy a calendar and remember what Giuliani repeatedly reminds you of, 9/11 changed everything.

Evidence that Dems are Making a Mistake   | Timeout

Yesterday I wrote that the Democrats are making a major mistake by making Hillary their standard bearer.  Today a poll came out supporting my contention.  CNN released a poll of head-to-head matchups and while Hillary leads Giuliani by six, Huckabee by 10 and Romney by 11, she loses to McCain by 2. 

John Edwards, however, leads all Republican contenders.  He leads McCain by eight, Giuliani by nine, Romney by twelve and Huckabee by twenty-five.

Name identification plays a role in these early polls which drives down less well-known candidates like Romney and Huckabee.  Hillary’s lead over Romney and Huckabee is diminished by this fact.  Her lead over Giuliani is more legitimate. 

Edwards also has high name identification because he ran for vice president.  His leads, however, are larger than Hillary’s and may hold up better when the name identification advantage diminishes.

Hillary loses to the one candidate that has comparable name identification to her, John McCain. Edwards beats all Republicans soundly yet the Democrats are making the Democratic nomination into a laugher for Hillary.  Republicans are loving it. 

Democrats Asleep at the Switch                  | Timeout

The Republicans have an unpopular president and are fully supportive of an unpopular war.  A majority of the media backs the Democratic Party.  Party identification with the Democrats is off the charts and the opposite is true for the Republicans.  Yet when paired against the Democrats’ leading candidate for the presidency, that candidate either barely squeezes out a lead or loses.

Why do the Democrats continue to back Hillary Clinton?  Her unfavorability is at or near fifty percent.  She has baggage that even an airline can’t lose.  She is headed for at best a narrow victory and at worst a sizable loss in the general election.

One must question the Democratic electorate’s good judgment when one considers all of these political realities.  The Republicans stand to win another presidential election when the circumstances do not warrant one. 

Regardless of who the Republicans’ nominee is, either Rudy, Huckabee or Romney, the Republican candidate probably stands a better than even shot at winning the White House unless the Democrats reevaluate who they will support in the primaries. 

Giuliani Still the Odd Man In                 | Zeroing in on the Play

Why is Giuliani the odd man?  He is the odd man because he is a pro-choice candidate running for the Republican nomination.  At this point he holds the best position to win the nomination. 

While Huckabee has shrunk Giuliani's national lead to a smaller margin than it has ever been, Giuliani is probably not that upset. Romney's strategy depends on winning the early states. If Romney loses Iowa or South Carolina or both, Giuliani heads into Super Tuesday with a great chance of winning the nomination. 

Giuliani will probably win outright or a majority of delegates from the following states on Super Tuesday: New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Illinois and California. He will also fare well in Maryland, Vermont, Maine, Washington and Oregon on later dates.  He can pick up the rest of his delegates in states that award delegates proportionally according to the vote received.

The greater the splintering of the delegates in the rest of the country, the better is Giuliani's position to win the nomination. The biggest threat to Giuliani comes in the form of a socially conservative candidate sweeping the early states. 

Such a sweep would lead to a clear contender for Giuliani and probably cost him the nomination. Huckabee's recent surge makes that unlikely unless Romney's support simply collapses, and that is unlikely because of Romney's money.

Giuliani is banking on a splintered social conservative opposition to his primary candidacy to bring him the nomination. Without a splintered opposition Rudy probably wins. 

The pro-life movement simply holds too much sway in the Republican primaries for a pro-choice candidate to win so long as the perfect storm does not come along. 

The perfect storm for Giuliani comes in the form of numerous social conservatives battling for the same vote. Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Thompson, Hunter and Tancredo are all splitting the social conservative vote. Giuliani stands alone on the other side almost certainly loving the fight he is seeing.

Huckabee's surge makes Giuliani's nomination much more likely. Considering Huckabee's soft demeanor he does not challenge Rudy on the issue of who is the best warrior. Rudy wins that hands down against everyone but McCain. But McCain, who has also been surging, is fighting it out against other social conservatives.

Giuliani stands quietly on the sidelines with his alliance of war hawks who are either not social conservatives or are willing to put those concerns aside for national security purposes loving the fight he is witnessing. With every Huckabee surge in the polls, Giuliani inches that much closer to the nomination.

If Huckabee manages to topple Romney altogether in the early states, however, Giuliani becomes the odd man out, not the odd man in. 

Belief in Natural Law is the Common Bond                            | Zeroing in on the Play

Apparently many Christians are abandoning Romney in Iowa because Huckabee presents an Evangelical and electable alternative. This is according to the conventional wisdom which is often wrong. If it is true, however, one must wonder why. 

In the realm of American policy the particulars of faith never really matter. In America we do not codify the particulars of individual faiths.

The foundations of faith such as the fundamental beliefs in God and the sanctity of human life represent the indispensable cords of commonality that conservatives must not compromise. Romney does not propose such a compromise.

The Ref does not endorse candidates. I write only to propose that those who determine that the specific identity of Romney's faith is relevant miss the point. 

In American politics when it comes to God we debate the fundamental issues, not the particular ones. Romney and Huckabee would effectively have the same impact on matters related to faith in American politics.

Romney the Flip Flopper Has Become the One Who Will Not Compromise                  | First Down

Romney has been raked over the coals for his huge flip flop, from pro-choice to pro-life. Now Romney refuses to compromise his own faith. 

While one would expect someone running for office to remain true to his or her faith, for Romney the act of remaining true seems like a courageous one to Americans. 

Many people do not know a Mormon and many condemn them as a cult.  Because of this reality Romney is considered strong for not abandoning his faith. 

Certainly Romney did not plan it this way, but what was perceived as his greatest weakness, his Mormon faith, may turn out to be his political salvation. 

Democratic Discipline Could Backfire                    | Interference

One can reasonably question the wisdom of stripping the electoral rich states of Michigan and Florida of all their delegates in the Democratic primaries.  Michigan will probably be there for the Democrats when the general election rolls around, but Florida will almost certainly be a battle. 

I doubt Democratic activists will fail to vote for their candidate because the national party stripped their state of delegates, but soft Independents might.  The Republicans might make an issue out of it, although they too are disciplining the early states, but only by taking some of the delegates, not all.

One might imagine a Dems for Disenfranchisement slogan floating around Tallahassee.  I suppose it’s possible that the Democrats strip Florida and Michigan of all the hype that comes with an early primary and nobody notices, but it’s unlikely.

It probably will not matter to the party faithful, but when Floridians and Michiganders see all the hype that flows from this year’s early primaries, they might wish they had some of that action. 

Axis of Evil Neutralized, Not Nuclearized                 | Touchdown

Tuesday’s National Intelligence Estimate revealed that Iran ceased its nuclear program four years ago. This is a victory for Bush, not a defeat. 

It seems that so much focus remains on the prospect for war in Iran that we are ignoring the success that this represents for American foreign policy.  Let’s remember that only six years ago the world thought that outlaw regimes were developing weapons of mass destruction capable of killing millions.  Now we know all three members of the Axis of Evil have empty nuclear quivers.

While these things are true we also know that President Bush has been too aggressive in his rhetoric toward Iran. Mentioning World War III was not a good idea. The point is simply that while the media is bashing Bush because of the finding that Iran has stopped its nuclear program they should also give him some credit for it. 

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Latest Political News

Amid Rumors that He is Muslim, Obama Emphasizes his Christian Faith

Clinton Campaign Member Emphasizing Obama Muslim Heritage Intentionally? 

       Another Major Paul Haul

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Student Beaten for His Political Views

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Huckabee slams Bush policy: Must Change "tone and attitude, open up, and reach out"

Romney Defends Bush: "I can't believe he'd say that," . . . Huckabee is "running for the wrong party"

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Romney Too Rich to be Republican Nominee?

Zogby Says Edwards in Good Position to Gain

Kim Jong-il "appreciates President Bush's letters

FIGHT!  Baby Boomers Verses Generations X and Y

                                Huckabee Supporters Push Polling Against McCain

Huckabee Gets Some Help - Hires Ed Rollins

Huckabee snapshot show big lead in Iowa

Hillary campaign official resigns over Obama drug charge

Iowa debates get horrible reviews . . . Chris Matthews: Do you think these debates were an attempt to "destroy television?"

Huckabee's Baptist views relating to women under scrutiny

Obama accepts Hillary apology on drug remarks . . . but did he?  Will Hill relent?  Not if Bill has a say . . .  

Ron Paul supporters follow Huckabee to Iowa to "make sure Iowans get the full picture"

Poll: "Republicans and independents significantly more positive" about the war

Sharpton 2004 presidential bid, nonprofit civil rights group, and for-profit businesses under investigation

"New Hampshire Democrats have given the Republicans a potent issue . . ."

Ron Paul on youth and government: let "them run their own lives"

Bush: "I wasn't a knee-walking drunk"

OBAMA TAKES N.H. LEAD, CLINTON N.H. ADVISOR MENTIONS OBAMA DRUG USE, THEN APOLOGIZES

GOP debates in Iowa . . . not memorable

Huckabee says he's sorry . . . In response to Huckabee "brothers" question, Romney says he went too far

Huckabee on debate apology

 

                 Fed to banks: Start lending money NOW

Ron Paul ruled out Independent run, what about Liberatarians? They'll take him

Study says global warming model flawed

Clinton campaign points out Obama inconsistencies

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Bill Clinton unhappy with campaign

Hillary implies tax policy won't be so favorable to the wealthy under her administration

FIRST IOWA, NOW NEW HAMPSHIRE - OBAMA TAKES THE LEAD IN ONE POLL

Huckabee: "Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?"

NBC reports substantial progress in Iraq, some areas delayed

                                        Oprah: "my being in support of Barack Obama is not my being against Hillary Clinton"

Iran stopped nuclear program in 2004, but did they resume it?

Another major endorsment . . . Romney a "Natural Ally of Social conservatives"

On Rupert Murdoch and the WSJ: He hasn't bought the company yet and “he’s already calling the shots"

International team of scientists to UN: “Climate change is a non problem . . . have the courage to do nothing."

Seen as test of GOP, Republicans hold onto conservative 5th district

Huckabee's Iowa lead strengthens

                                                          Rudy wanted to deport 400,000 illegal immigrants as mayor

Trouble from within the ranks

Loyalty to Clintons comes between Obama and powerful black ministers

Obama circulating opposition research on Edwards

                        Bill suggested that Hillary dump him for her own political career

Bill: Hillary is not tied to a broken political system

CIA Agent: Yeah it's torture, but it's necessary

       AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!  23 days to Iowa: CBS/New York Times and CNN show virtual tie in GOP race

       War plus domestic politics

Ad Says of Dick Cheney, "If he were anyone else, he'd probably be dead by now."

HUCKABEE NOW ROMNEY ENEMY NUMBER ONE - ROMNEY TO TARGET HUCKABEE WITH "CONTRAST AD"

Huckabee stands by quarantine AIDS patients statement

 

Email crimes . . . Clinton campaign wants another resignation

Forget illegal immigrants . . . Huckabee comes out against US citizens

Like no Republican primary since 1964 . . . jumpball

                                               GIULIANI LEADING LIKE A FOX - DOMINATING LIKELY SUPER TUESDAY DELEGATE COUNT

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