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THE LATEST AND MOST ACCURATE POLL NUMBERS EVERY DAY - SEE BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Averages
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 4.2%
Giuliani 23.6
Huckabee 19.4
Romney 13.7
Thompson 11.6
McCain 11.3
Paul 4.4
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 18.0%
Clinton 43.1
Obama 25.1
Edwards 12.3
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS (EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +6.3%
Clinton +1.4%
New Hampshire
Romney +14.5%
Clinton +7.5%
South Carolina
Huckabee +0.8%
Clinton +7.0%
Michigan
Romney +5.5%
Clinton +24.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +17.5%
Clinton +33.5% No Delegates
Nevada
Giuliani +13.4%
Clinton +19.5%
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
Clinton 45.5
Giuliani 44.0
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 43.0
McCain 46.0
Clinton 47.0
Romney 43.0
Clinton 46.0
Huckabee 43.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

The Ref's Calls

The Ron Paul Factor   | Zeroing in on the Play

Ron Paul's performance in the polls does not suggest that he will contend in any of the primaries. But with one of the most loyal bases in the primaries on either side, Ron Paul can certainly be a factor in the general election if he carries on beyond the primaries.

Ron Paul has said he will not run as an Independent. The Libertarians, however, have said they would accept him as their nominee. See Libertarians Tackle the Ron Paul Dilemma.  But I would be surprised if Paul decided to run as a Libertarian.

If Ron Paul were to run with any party he would present a problem for the Republican nominee. One must assume that a substantial portion of Paul's vote will vote Republican if he does not run.  It is difficult to say what considerations will weigh in on Paul's decision or if the impact a Paul run will have on the Republicans will be a major factor in his decision.

So the question is not will he win the Republican nomination because the polls suggest that he will not, but will he run on a third party ticket. Paul says no right now. We'll see. With the kind of passionate support he receives from his base he could certainly fund a respectable third party run.

Why the Old Rules Do Not Apply             | Start the Clock

Repeatedly one hears the pundits say, if Rudy doesn't win any of the first four states he's finished, he can't win. That is not true.

Typically this would be true but two facts combine to make this year the one that bucks the trend. First, the early primaries take place over a week whereas before they ruminated for at least a month. 

Because there will be less time to ponder the implications of New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina they will have less air time and less impact.

Second, the overwhelming concern for national security prevalent in the Republican Party makes Rudy a strong candidate in every state that is not dominated by social conservatives. Because blue state delegates carry just as much weight as red state delegates, the early states simply do not have as much impact. 

Iowa and New Hampshire are not Bible belt states but enough conservatives exist in the states to make it difficult for Giuliani to win. Romney, and now Huckabee, have successfully drawn that contrast. 

But in the rest of the states where not nearly as much attention is paid they have not done that. So Giuliani will have the ability to ignore the early states and ride the national security issue predominance to wins in plenty of later states. 

For those pundits who consistently say Rudy can't sit out the first week, you need to buy a calendar and remember what Giuliani repeatedly reminds you of, 9/11 changed everything.

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