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THE LATEST AND MOST ACCURATE POLL NUMBERS EVERY DAY - SEE BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Averages
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 4.4%
Giuliani 23.7
Huckabee 19.3
Romney 13.7
Thompson 11.9
McCain 11.4
Paul 4.3
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 18.5%
Clinton 43.6
Obama 25.1
Edwards 11.9
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS (EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +6.3%
Clinton +0.9%
New Hampshire
Romney +15.4%
Clinton +9.1%
South Carolina
Huckabee +0.8%
Clinton +7.0%
Michigan
Romney +5.5%
Clinton +24.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +17.5%
Clinton +33.5% No Delegates
Nevada
Giuliani +13.4%
Clinton +19.5%
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
Clinton 45.5
Giuliani 44.0
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 43.0
McCain 46.0
Clinton 47.0
Romney 43.0
Clinton 46.0
Huckabee 43.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

The Ref's Calls

Evidence that Dems are Making a Mistake   | Timeout

Yesterday I wrote that the Democrats are making a major mistake by making Hillary their standard bearer.  Today a poll came out supporting my contention.  CNN released a poll of head-to-head matchups and while Hillary leads Giuliani by six, Huckabee by 10 and Romney by 11, she loses to McCain by 2. 

John Edwards, however, leads all Republican contenders.  He leads McCain by eight, Giuliani by nine, Romney by twelve and Huckabee by twenty-five.

Name identification plays a role in these early polls which drives down less well-known candidates like Romney and Huckabee.  Hillary’s lead over Romney and Huckabee is diminished by this fact.  Her lead over Giuliani is more legitimate. 

Edwards also has high name identification because he ran for vice president.  His leads, however, are larger than Hillary’s and may hold up better when the name identification advantage diminishes.

Hillary loses to the one candidate that has comparable name identification to her, John McCain. Edwards beats all Republicans soundly yet the Democrats are making the Democratic nomination into a laugher for Hillary.  Republicans are loving it. 

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