23 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Latest poll analysis

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THE LATEST AND MOST ACCURATE POLL NUMBERS EVERY DAY - SEE BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Averages
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 5.2%
Giuliani 24.0
Huckabee 18.8
Romney 13.0
McCain 11.7
Thompson 11.3
Paul 4.3
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 16.3%
Clinton 41.8
Obama 25.5
Edwards 12.3
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS (EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +5.1%
Clinton +0.9%
New Hampshire
Romney +15.4%
Clinton +9.1%
South Carolina
Huckabee +0.8%
Clinton +9.2%
Michigan
Romney +5.5%
Clinton +24.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +17.5%
Clinton +33.5% No Delegates
Nevada
Giuliani +13.4%
Clinton +19.5%
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
Clinton 45.3
Giuliani 43.3
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 44.7
McCain 45.0
Clinton 48.0
Romney 39.3
Clinton 42.0
Huckabee 42.5
See All Head-to-Head Polls

The Ref's Calls

Democrats Asleep at the Switch                  | Timeout

The Republicans have an unpopular president and are fully supportive of an unpopular war.  A majority of the media backs the Democratic Party.  Party identification with the Democrats is off the charts and the opposite is true for the Republicans.  Yet when paired against the Democrats’ leading candidate for the presidency, that candidate either barely squeezes out a lead or loses.

Why do the Democrats continue to back Hillary Clinton?  Her unfavorability is at or near fifty percent.  She has baggage that even an airline can’t lose.  She is headed for at best a narrow victory and at worst a sizable loss in the general election.

One must question the Democratic electorate’s good judgment when one considers all of these political realities.  The Republicans stand to win another presidential election when the circumstances do not warrant one. 

Regardless of who the Republicans’ nominee is, either Rudy, Huckabee or Romney, the Republican candidate probably stands a better than even shot at winning the White House unless the Democrats reevaluate who they will support in the primaries.

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