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 Obama +2.5%
 Obama
45.0
 Clinton
42.5
See All Polls
 Upcoming States (Dems)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48.6, Obama 41.2 Clinton +7.4
West Virginia: Clinton 55.0, Obama 27.0 Clinton +28.0
North Carolina: Obama 51.3, Clinton 36.0 Obama +15.3
Kentucky: Clinton 58.0, Obama 29.0      Clinton +29.0
Indiana: Obama 40.0, Clinton 25.0        Obama +15.0
Obama vs. McCain -  McCain +0.2
 McCain
44.4
 Obama
44.2
Clinton vs. McCain - TIED
 McCain 45.2
 Clinton
45.2
See All Head-to-Head Polls
TOP 5 BATTLEGROUND STATES
Nat'l
Obama vs. McCain
  
Ref's Avg. of Battle- grounds
McCain +5.1
  
McCain +3.3
PA
Obama +1.5
  
FL  
OH  
MO  
IA  
       

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Offer More

 

 

 

 

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Clinton's 15 point lead in Pennsylvania cut in half in the last two days, now 7.4

If Clinton cannot win Pennsylvania by double digits, it's hard to imagine a scenario where she can catch Obama in the national popular vote. 

Clinton holds a huge lead in Kentucky

If Clinton wins Kentucky by nearly thirty points it will offset her losses in North Carolina and make the two states a wash or a slight Clinton plus.  This puts all that much more emphasis on Pennsylvania, Indiana and whether or not the Democrats count the Florida popular vote from the primary vote they held in the state.

Clinton not faring well in North Carolina 

The newest North Carolina poll average shows her down 15.3%.  To catch Obama in the national popular vote, something she must do to have a strong chance to win the Democratic nomination among the Democratic super delegates, she will need to close that gap.