26 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

Democrats gain some but do they lose more on amnesty issue?

Dems taking their time

Will hear about this in the "mainstream" press . . Does it matter? 

Rupert's successor advances

"We can no longer tolerate the fact that you have severe breath odor while on duty."

Ham for Hanukkah?

Conservatives should accept the "reality" of global warming?

Purveyors of fake porn suffer a loss

Hmmmm . . .

Gay marriage related court ruling

 

Photo Attributions

Click Here for Photo Attributions

 

 


 powered by FreeFind

THE LATEST AND MOST ACCURATE POLL NUMBERS EVERY DAY - SEE BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Averages
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 7.4%
Giuliani 24.0
Huckabee 16.6
McCain 13.6
Thompson 12.4
Romney 11.8
Paul 4.6
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 19.2%
Clinton 42.2
Obama 23.0
Edwards 13.0
See All Polls
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS
Clinton 45.3
Giuliani 43.3
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 44.7
McCain 45.0
Clinton 48.0
Romney 39.3
Clinton 42.0
Huckabee 42.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS (EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +4.1%
Clinton +0.7%
New Hampshire
Romney +16.1%
Clinton +12.2%
South Carolina
Romney +1.3%
Clinton +10.4%
Michigan
Romney +5.5%
Clinton +24.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +17.5%
Clinton +33.5% No Delegates
Nevada
Giuliani +13.4%
Clinton +19.5%

The Ref's Calls

Giuliani Still the Odd Man In                             | Zeroing in on the Play

Why is Giuliani the odd man?  He is the odd man because he is a pro-choice candidate running for the Republican nomination.  At this point he holds the best position to win the nomination. 

While Huckabee has shrunk Giuliani's national lead to a smaller margin than it has ever been, Giuliani is probably not that upset. Romney's strategy depends on winning the early states. If Romney loses Iowa or South Carolina or both, Giuliani heads into Super Tuesday with a great chance of winning the nomination. 

Giuliani will probably win outright or a majority of delegates from the following states on Super Tuesday: New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Illinois and California. He will also fare well in Maryland, Vermont, Maine, Washington and Oregon on later dates.  He can pick up the rest of his delegates in states that award delegates proportionally according to the vote received.

The greater the splintering of the delegates in the rest of the country, the better is Giuliani's position to win the nomination. The biggest threat to Giuliani comes in the form of a socially conservative candidate sweeping the early states. 

Such a sweep would lead to a clear contender for Giuliani and probably cost him the nomination. Huckabee's recent surge makes that unlikely unless Romney's support simply collapses, and that is unlikely because of Romney's money.

Giuliani is banking on a splintered social conservative opposition to his primary candidacy to bring him the nomination. Without a splintered opposition Rudy probably wins. 

The pro-life movement simply holds too much sway in the Republican primaries for a pro-choice candidate to win so long as the perfect storm does not come along. 

The perfect storm for Giuliani comes in the form of numerous social conservatives battling for the same vote. Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Thompson, Hunter and Tancredo are all splitting the social conservative vote. Giuliani stands alone on the other side almost certainly loving the fight he is seeing.

Huckabee's surge makes Giuliani's nomination much more likely. Considering Huckabee's soft demeanor he does not challenge Rudy on the issue of who is the best warrior. Rudy wins that hands down against everyone but McCain. But McCain, who has also been surging, is fighting it out against other social conservatives.

Giuliani stands quietly on the sidelines with his alliance of war hawks who are either not social conservatives or are willing to put those concerns aside for national security purposes loving the fight he is witnessing. With every Huckabee surge in the polls, Giuliani inches that much closer to the nomination.

If Huckabee manages to topple Romney altogether in the early states, however, Giuliani becomes the odd man out, not the odd man in. 

 

Thanks to FreeFind for providing the search technology for this website.

Latest Political News

HUCKABEE'S LIFTOFF

Welcome to SC Oprah: “If you can build a school in South Africa, build one in South Carolina.”  Also, Sean Penn for Kucinich

NBC rejects ad thanking troops because it's "too political" . . . Gingrich: Boycot NBC

 

More . . .

 

Home Run King: I Didn't Do It

                                                McCain : “no national security reason . . . that would justify destroying the tapes”

                                   The Forgotten Man: Bloomberg's Roadmap

Leonardo Da Vinci an Arab, not an Italian?

"Senior Kremlin Hawk" makes nuclear arsenal warning

Campaign robocalls slam early states - 80% of Iowa voters have received them