Ref's Performance Analysis for 2016



REF'S POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.1 - Actual vote as of today: Clinton 48.0, Trump 46.6 (0.7% Error)

REF'S ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION: I predicted 48 of 50 states correctly.

In the eleven states I identified as battlegrounds, my average error was 2.09%.

I called five of those states with less than 1.0% error, including Florida, missing it only by 0.1%.

My projection of Florida: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8. Actual Result: Trump 49.1, Clinton 47.8.

To see all battleground states, click here.


I used the same method I have used since 2008. I analyzed thousands of polls throughout 2016 to develop a voter model. I compared national numbers and state numbers in developing this model. I applied this voter model to 142 polls in 11 battleground states from the last two weeks. I also applied this voter model to the national polls. I achieved very high accuracy in both predictions.


NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: I projected the national popular vote with an error of only 0.7%. You can see a summary of how I did this here, including time stamp. Actual Popular Vote: Clinton 48.0, Trump 46.6



I called the election for Trump the day before the election on my podcast based on early turnout reports.

This prediction proved right on 47 of 50 states. I switched New Hampshire to Hillary later in the day when doing my final projection because of several bad polls, which proved correct.

My final projection called 48 of 50 states correctly.


Here is a link to my first electoral projection on 11/4/16, archived at In this projection, I was projecting that Trump would win Michigan. I nearly gave it to Trump in the last projection, but the national polls broke for Hillary and CCES poll had it at six points, so I didn't.

I also made a video of this first projection linked here. Bad audio.


Comparing Results in 2016

Missed States are Depicted in Purple
#1 | See Analysis
Called 48 of 50 - Missed 2 states
Popular VoteElectoral Vote
The Ref: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.1
Actual Vote: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.2
Error: 0.1%

Actual Results | See Results
Popular Vote: Clinton 47.7, Trump 47.4
Electoral: Clinton 232, Trump 306

Sabato's Crystal Ball | See Analysis
Called 45 of 50 - Missed 5 states
Popular VoteElectoral Vote
Sabato: No popular vote prediction

Huffington Post | See Analysis
Called 44 of 50 - Missed 6 states
Popular VoteElectoral Vote
HuffPo: Clinton 47.3, Trump 42.0
Actual Vote: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.2
Error: 4.6% | See Analysis
Called 46 of 50 - Missed 4 States
Popular VoteElectoral Vote
RCP: Clinton 45.5, Trump 42.2
Actual Vote: Clinton Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.2
Error: 2.6% | See Analysis
Called 44 of 50 - Missed 6 states
Popular VoteElectoral Vote
538: Clinton 48.5, Trump 44.9
Actual Vote: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.2
Error: 2.9%



More Analysis from the Ref

The unprecedented overwhelming media bias has distorted the polls, hiding Trump's strength

Nate Silver and other "data journalists" have to face reality . . . it's not science

The reasons many polls are understating Trump's support

We are about to see Trump fire on all cylinders and likely win the election

Hillary Clinton is a very weak incumbent

WATCH MY DOCUMENTARY: Consent of the Governed

Imagine MSM reaction if Trump revealed top secret tactical nuclear information in front of 70 million people

James O'Keefe promises devastating releases next week. He discussed it Friday on

Rasmussen Reports: TRUMP HOLDS THE LEAD

Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

Why the post-debate polls for CNN and YouGov are wrong

Reuters/Ipsos Battlegrounds: Still a close race