2016 Electoral Performance Summary

Previous Projections: 11/4/16 | 11/5/16 | 11/6/16 |Today's projection resulted from analysis of 142 polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks.

Projected 48 out of 50 states correctly

 

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes

*Why I see a strong chance for a Trump win in Pennsylvania or Michigan

Changes since yesterday:

1. New Hampshire to Clinton: Clinton picked up 1.9 points in the polls only average, which put her ahead of Trump.

Changes since the second projection on 11/5/16:

1. Nevada to Clinton: Clinton actually went down in the polls, but due to the turnout of Democrats in the early vote, the sample bias actually now goes in Clinton's direction by two points. For more on this state, read What is going on in Nevada?

Changes since the first projection on 11/4/16

1. Colorado to Clinton: Clinton picked up 0.5 points in the polls only average, which put her just ahead of Trump.

2. Michigan to Clinton: Clinton also picked up Michigan. She picked up 0.8 points in the poll only average which made the difference.

3. Pennsylvania to Trump: Trump picked up 0.4 points in the poll average, which put him just ahead of Hillary. If public transport workers remain on strike in Philly, Trump will get a bigger bump out of the sample bias. That is not yet incorporated.

Polls Only - Clinton 278, Trump 245

Sample Bias - Clinton 278, Trump 260

Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Clinton 278, Trump 260

REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (Incumbency rule) - Clinton 258, Trump 280

Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger. This is very conservative assumption that advantages Hillary. She probably should be above 47 to be safe, but I am trying to be conservative.

EVIDENCE for Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias in Polling

My Twitter account is just getting started. Follow me here!

      MY PROJECTIONS ACTUAL RESULTS
 
Florida Clinton 45.6, Trump 45.7

Trump wins by 1.4%

Prediction: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8, Other 3.0

Error of 0.1%

Trump wins by 1.3

Trump 49.1, Clinton 47.8

  Google Consumer Surveys 11/1-11/7 1350LV Clinton 36.5, Trump 41.3

Polls Only - Trump +0.1

Sample bias - Trump +0.4

*Due to high Latino turnout in Florida, but Trump narrowed the Democrat firewall to only 39,000, 130,000 less than 2012.

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9

*I think it it safe to assume a shy voter bias of 0.5 points. This is a conservative assumption.

Late breaking - Trump +1.4

The Comey announcement reduces the late breaking advantage, but it still exists because Hillary is almost two points below 47, where a winning incumbent should be in this race. Trump should yield more than half the undecided. Assuming Johnson and Stein get 3%, that leaves 5.7% undecided. Trump gets 3.1, Clinton gets 2.6.

  Trafalgar Group 11/6 1100LV Clinton 49, Trump 50
  Opinion Savvy 11/5-11/6 840LV Clinton 48, Trump 48
  *Quinnipiac 11/3-11/6 880LV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  *Alliance/ESA 11/2-11/6 530LV Clinton 47, Trump 45
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/31-11/6 890LV Clinton 48, Trump 47
  *SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 3570LV Clinton 47, Trump 45
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-10/6 5370LV Clinton 44, Trump 43
  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 438LV Clinton 47.3, Trump 47.4
  CBS/YouGov 11/2-11/4 1188RV Clinton 45, Trump 45
  *CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 770LV Clinton 49, Trump 47
  Gravis 10/31 1200RV Clinton 49, Trump 46
  Remington Research 10/30 990LV Clinton 44, Trump 48
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  *NYT/Sienna College 10/25-10/27 820LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
  *NBC/Marist College 10/25-10/26 780LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  *PPP 10/25-10/26 740LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  Dixie Strategies 10/25-10/26 700LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
  *Bloomberg 10/21-10/24 810LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
         
  Ohio Clinton 43.4, Trump 45.9

Trump wins by 3.5%

Prediction: Trump 49.7, Clinton 46.2, Other 4.1

Error of 5.1%. Reason for error was the high innacuracy of the polls.

Trump wins by 8.6

Actual Result: Trump 52.1, Clinton 43.5

  *Alliance/ESA 11/2-11/6 530LV Clinton 44, Trump 43

Polls Only - Trump +2.5

Sample bias - Trump +2.8

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.0

Late breaking - Trump +3.5

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/31-11/6 550LV Clinton 47, Trump 46
  *SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 2530LV Clinton 42, Trump 45
  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 340LV Clinton 47.1, Trump 48.3
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 3460LV Clinton 43, Trump 42
  Emerson 11/4-11/5 900LV Clinton 39, Trump 46
  *Columbus Dispatch 10/27-11/5 1150LV Clinton 48, Trump 47
  CBS/YouGov 11/2-11/4 1190LV Clinton 45, Trump 46
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 590LV Clinton 41, Trump 46
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 980LV Clinton 40, Trump 45
  Remington Research 10/30 1187LV Clinton 43, Trump 48
  Trafalger Group 10/24-10/26 1150LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
         
  North Carolina Clinton 45.2, Trump 45.2

Trump wins by 1.6%

Prediction: Trump 48.4, Clinton 46.8, Other 4.8

Error of 2.2%. Again, the polls were badly wrong.

Trump wins by 3.8

Actual Result: Trump 52.1, Clinton 43.5

  Google Consumer Surveys 11/1-11/7 790LV Clinton 35, Trump 41

Polls Only - TIED

Sample bias - Trump +1.2

*The early vote demonstrates a weakness in black and millennial turnout for Clinton. There should be a big sample bias.

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.5

Late breaking - Trump +1.6

 

  *NYT/Sienna 11/4-11/6 800LV Clinton 44, Trump 44
  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 360LV Clinton 47, Trump 48
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 600LV Clinton 47, Trump 44
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/31-11/6 370LV Clinton 46, Trump 47
  SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 2870LV Clinton 48, Trump 41
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 2920LV Clinton 44, Trump 41
  Gravis 11/1-11/4 1250RV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  Remington Research 11/1-11/2 2600LV Clinton 45, Trump 48
  *PPP 10/31-11/1 1170LV Clinton 49, Trump 47
  Trafalgar Group 10/27-11/1 1150LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
  WRAL/Survey USA 10/28-10/31 660LV Clinton 44, Trump 51
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 990LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 650LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *Elon Univ 10/23-10/27 710LV Clinton 42, Trump 41
         
  Wisconsin Clinton 46.7, Trump 41.6

Clinton wins by 2.1%

Prediction: Clinton 49.1, Trump 47.0, Other 3.9

Error of 3.1%. Again, the polls were badly wrong.

Trump wins by 1.0

Actual Result: Trump 47.9, Clinton 46.9

  *SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 1940LV Clinton 44, Trump 43

Polls Only - Clinton +5.1

Sample bias - Clinton +3.3

Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.5

Late breaking - Clinton +2.1

 
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/24-11/6 830LV Clinton 46, Trump 40
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 1790:V Clinton 42, Trump 38
  Remington Research 11/1-11/2 2720LV Clinton 49, Trump 41
  Clarity Campaign Labs 11/1-11/2 1130LV Clinton 47, Trump 43
  PPP 10/31-11/1 890LV Clinton 48, Trump 41
  *Marquette University 10/26-10/31 1260LV Clinton 46, Trump 40
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 370LV Clinton 50,.Trump 46
  *Emerson College 10/27-10/28 400LV Clinton 48, Trump 42
         
  Iowa Clinton 41.8, Trump 44.3

Trump wins by 3.3%

Prediction: Trump 50.3, Clinton 47.0, Other 2.7

Error of 6.1%. I brought his big lead down from the day before because of national polls breaking against Trump

Trump wins by 9.4

Actual Result: Trump 51.7, Clinton 42.3

  *SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 1600LV Clinton 37, Trump 47

Polls Only - Trump +2.5

Sample bias - Trump +2.8

Shy Voter bias - Trump +3.1

Late breaking - Trump +3.3

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/17-11/6 416LV Clinton 44, Trump 44
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 970LV Clinton 40, Trump 37
  *Des Moines Register 11/1-11/4 800LV Clinton 39, Trump 46
  Emerson College 11/1-11/3 700LV Clinton 41, Trump 44
  *The Gazette 11/1-11/2 1080LV Clinton 41, Trump 44
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 330LV Clinton 48, Trump 48
  *Quinnipiac 10/20-10/26 790LV Clinton 44, Trump 44
         
  Nevada

Clinton 44.9, Trump 44.8

*Read my article, What is going on in Nevada?

Clinton wins by 1.0

Prediction: Clinton 49.0, Trump 48.0, Other 3.0

Error of 1.4%

Clinton wins by 2.4

Actual Result: Clinton 47.9, Trump 45.5

  Gravis 11/3-11/6 1160RV Clinton 45, Trump 43

Polls Only - Clinton +0.1

Sample bias - Clinton +1.1

**High Early Latino turnout has offset this bias to -2.0

Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +1.5

Late breaking - Clinton +1.0

  *Alliance/ESA 11/2-11/6 530LV Clinton 44, Trump 44
  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 323LV Clinton 49, Trump 46
  *Survey Monkey 10/30-11/6 1120LV Clinton 44, Trump 43
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/17-11/6 340LV Clinton 45, Trump 42
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 660LV Clinton 43, Trump 41
  Emerson 11/4-11/5 600LV Clinton 47, Trump 46
  Trafalgar Group 11/1/11/4 1100LV Clinton 45, Trump 50
  PPP 10/31-11/1 690LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  LasVegasNow.com/JMC . 10/28-11/1 600LV Clinton 45, Trump 45
  CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 790LV Clinton 43, Trump 49
  Remington Research 10/30 790LV Clinton 44, Trump 48
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 550LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
  *Marist 10/20-10/24 710LV Clinton 43, Trump 43
         
  Arizona Clinton 42.4, Trump 46.2

Trump wins by 6.4

Prediction: Trump 52.1, Clinton 45.7, Other 2.2

Error of 2.2%

Trump wins by 4.2

Actual Result: Trump 49.6, Clinton 45.4

  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 350LV Clinton 43, Trump 50

Polls Only - Trump +3.8

Sample bias - Trump +5.3

Shy Voter bias - Trump +5.7

Late breaking - Trump +6.4

  *SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 2320LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/24-11/6 590LV Clinton 42, Trump 47
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 11/4-11/6 1570LV Clinton 38, Trump 46
  Data Orbital 11/1-11/2 550LV Clinton 39, Trump 47
  NBC/Marist 10/30-11/1 720LV Clinton 40, Trump 45
  CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 770LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
  *Saguaro Strategoes 10/29-10/31 2230LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  Emerson College 10/28-10/31 700LV Clinton 43, Trump 47
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 990LV Clinton 42, Trump 44
  *Monmouth 10/21-10/24 400LV Clinton 45, Trump 46
         
  Colorado Clinton 43.6, Trump 40.8

Clinton wins by 1.5%

Prediction: Clinton 48.2, Trump 46.7, Other 5.1

Error of 0.6%

Clinton wins by 2.1

Actual Result: Clinton 46.9, Trump 44.8

  *SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 2410LV Clinton 43, Trump 39

Polls Only - Clinton +2.8

Sample bias - Clinton +2.2

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.8

Late breaking - Clinton +1.5

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/24-11/6 540LV Clinton 48, Trump 42
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 1560LV Clinton 42, Trump 37
  *PPP 11/3-11/4 700LV Clinton 48, Trump 43
  Keating Research 11-2-11/3 600LV Clinton 43, Trump 38
  Trafalgar Group 10/31-11/3 1150LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  Gravis 11/1-11/2 1130RV Clinton 40, Trump 40
  *Magellan Strategies 11/1-11/2 500LV Clinton 44, Trump 43
  *Univ of Denver 10/29-10/31 500LV Clinton 39, Trump 39
  *Emerson College 10/28-10/31 750LV Clinton 44, Trump 41
  Remington Research 10/30 950LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 1000LV Clinton 42, Trump 39
             
  Pennsylvania

Clinton 45.9, Trump 43.6

*I could see Pennsylvania going to Clinton, just like I could see Michigan going to Trump. The CCES poll and Google polls were significant in my decisions.

Trump wins by 0.2%

Prediction: Trump 48.1, Clinton 47.9, Other 4.0

Error of 0.9%

Trump wins by 1.1

Actual Result: Trump 48.8, Clinton 47.7

  Google Consumer Surveys 11/1-11/7 1177LV Clinton 37.7, Trump 37.3

Polls Only - Clinton +2.3

Sample bias - Clinton +1.3

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.3

Late breaking - Trump +0.2 *Clinton should be above 45.7 here with all the effort and money they have put into the state. That plus diminished African- American and millennial turnout and few Latinos to offset it, I think Trump wins it.

  Alliance/ESA 11/2-11/6 530LV Cllinton 44, Trump 46
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/31-11/6 500.LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 390LV Clinton 47.8, Trump 47.1
  *SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 2690LV Clinton 47, Trump 42
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 3700LV Clinton 43, Trump 41
  *CBS/YouGov 10/4-11/6 930LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
  Trafalgar Group 11/3-11/5 1300LV Clinton 47, Trump 48
  Clarity Campaign Labs 11/1-11/4 1030LV Clinton 47, Trump 43
  *Muhlenberg College 10/30-11/4 410LV Clinton 44, Trump 40
  *Harper Polling 11/2-11/3 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 46
  Gravis 11/1-11/2 1020RV Clinton 47, Trump 45
  *PPP 10/31-11/1 1050LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *Susquehanna Polling 10/31-11/1 680LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
  *Monmouth 10/29-11/1 400LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 800LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 610LV Clinton 48, Trump 43
  Remington Research 10/30 1250LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
             
  New Hampshire

Clinton 44.4, Trump 41.5

Google only polled 109 likely voters, which is too few to produce a reliable poll.

Clinton wins by 0.8%

Prediction: Clinton 48.6, Trump 47.4, Other 4.0

Error of 0.4%

Clinton wins by 0.4

Actual Result: Clinton 47.5, Trump 47.3

  *Univ. of New Hampshire 11/3-11/6 690LV Clinton 49, Trump 37

Polls Only - Clinton +2.9

Sample bias - Clinton +1.9

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.9

Late breaking - Clinton +1.1

I actually think in New Hampshire Clinton will have more late deciding voters breaking her way.

  *Alliance/ESA 11/2-11/6 530LV Clinton 46, Trump 40
  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 310LV Clinton 49, Trump 43
  SurveyMonkey 10/30-11/6 672LV Clinton 49, Trump 38
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 430LV Clinton 43, Trump 34
  Emerson 11/4-11/5 1000LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  Gravis Marketing 11/1-11/2 1000RV Clinton 41, Trump 43
  *Boston Globe/Suffolk 10/31-11/2 500LV Clinton 42, Trump 42
  ARG 10/31-11/2 600LV Clinton 43, Trump 48
  *UMASS Lowell 10/28-11/2 700LV Clinton 44, Trump 44
  *WBUR/MassInc 10/29-11/1` 500LV Clinton 39, Trump 40
  Inside Sources 10/26-10/28 410LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
             
  Michigan

Clinton 43.7, Trump 41.2

*I could see Michigan going to Trump, just like I could see Pennsylvania going to Clinton. The CCES poll and Google polls were significant in my decisions.

Clinton wins by 0.4%

Prediction: Clinton 48.2, Trump 47.8, Other 4.0

Error of 0.7%

Trump wins by 0.3%

Actual Result: Trump 47.6, Clinton 47.3

  Google Consumer Surveys 11/1-11/7 821LV Clinton 35, Trump 34

Polls Only - Clinton +2.5

Sample bias - Clinton +1.8

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.1

Late breaking - Clinton +0.4

 
  Trafalgar Group 11/6 1200LV Clinton 47, Trump 49
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/31-11/6 340LV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  UPI/CVoter 10/30-11/6 330LV Clinton 49, Trump 45
  CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com 10/4-11/6 3010LV Clinton 42, Trump 36
  *PPP 11/3-11/4 960LV Clinton 46, Trump 41
  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 2750LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
  *EPIC-MRA 11/1-11/3 600LV Clinton 42, Trump 38
  *Mitchell Research 11/2 1150LV Clinton 47, Trump 44
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 680LV Clinton 38, Trump 35
  *Strategic National 10/25-10/31 500LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
             
             
             
             

*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.

I will include Facebook links to some key articles I wrote during this cycle

Sample bias & the shy Trump voter: This was key to my analysis

The reasons many polls are understating Trump's support

Why I see a strong chance for a Trump win in Pennsylvania or Michigan

The unprecedented overwhelming media bias has distorted the polls, hiding Trump's strength

 

Why early voting gives Democrats an artificial late bump in pre-election polling

We are about to see Trump fire on all cylinders and likely win the election

Hillary Clinton is a very weak incumbent, Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.0

 

More Analysis from the Ref

The unprecedented overwhelming media bias has distorted the polls, hiding Trump's strength

Nate Silver and other "data journalists" have to face reality . . . it's not science

The reasons many polls are understating Trump's support

We are about to see Trump fire on all cylinders and likely win the election

Hillary Clinton is a very weak incumbent

WATCH MY DOCUMENTARY: Consent of the Governed

Imagine MSM reaction if Trump revealed top secret tactical nuclear information in front of 70 million people

James O'Keefe promises devastating releases next week. He discussed it Friday on reddit.com/r/The_Donald.

Rasmussen Reports: TRUMP HOLDS THE LEAD

Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

Why the post-debate polls for CNN and YouGov are wrong

Reuters/Ipsos Battlegrounds: Still a close race