66 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses
The Ref's Averages
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
The Ref's Average
Giuliani Leads by 10.7%
Giuliani 28.3
Thompson 17.6
McCain 14.5
Romney 10.7
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
The Ref's Average
Clinton Leads by 25.9%
Clinton 46.4
Obama 20.5
Edwards 12.5
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS
In Order of Most Likely
Clinton 44.8
Giuliani 40.3
Clinton 49
Thompson 38
Clinton 47.0
McCain 38.5
Clinton 48.7
Romney 36.3
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
New Hampshire
Romney +6.7
Clinton +19.5
Iowa
Romney +13.4
Clinton +6.3
South Carolinha
Giuliani +0.2
Clinton +14
Michigan
Romney +8.4
No Delegates (Dem)
Florida
Giuliani +10.6
Clinton +23.6

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Today's Calls

MOVEON.COM POLLS?   Chris Matthews at Quinnipiac University Commencement 2006. Author: Terry Ballard. Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation; with no Invariant Sections, no Front-Cover Texts, and no Back-Cover Texts. A copy of the license is included in the section entitled "GNU Free Documentation License".          ROUGHING: When a panelist on Hardball referred to a Rasmussen Reports poll, Chris Matthews stopped him and said," Wait a minute, wait a minute, the Rasmussen?  That's moveon.com here.  We're not doing Rasmussen polls here, come on." Presumably Matthews thinks that Rasmussen polls are biased and inaccurate.  Perhaps Chris missed the fact that the Rasmussen poll was the most accurate in the 2004 election.  We love Chris's tendency to speak his mind but sometimes he's just wrong. 

LESS INFORMATION FOR THE PEOPLE!Presidential candidate John Edwards, 3. September 2007 in Pittsburgh, PA.. September 03, 2007 at 11:23. Authors: Joey Gannon from Pittsburgh, PA . This file is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 License (cc-by-sa-2.0). In short: you are free to share and make derivative works of the file under the conditions that you appropriately attribute it, and that you distribute it under this or a similar cc-by-sa license. INTERFERENCE: John Edwards is proposing a plan that will restrict drug advertising for the first two years of a drug's existence. He argues that misleading drug advertising often guides patients more than their own doctors.  See the article, Edwards Unveils Plan to Control Drug Advertising, Reuters.  One must ask whether more or less information represents the best course.  Edwards's reflexive distrust of the pharmaceutical industry determines his approach.  Patients are capable of getting all of the information they want.  Everyone has access to the Internet if they can get to their public library. Lack of interest in doing research or education should not prevent the public from seeing advertising.  Edwards placed himself again firmly on the side of big government interference.

ABA: MORATORIUM ON ALL EXECUTIONSProbably the most famous american electric chair - Old Sparky from Sing-Sing prison. This media file is in the public domain in the United States. This applies to U.S. works where the copyright has expired, often because its first publication occurred prior to January 1, 1923.               : TIME OUT: One might sympathize with the American Bar Association's irritation at the death penalty in the United States.  Reliable studies have shown that the death penalty is inconsistently and wrongly applied in some cases.  Because the death penalty cannot be reversed, such problems should not be tolerated.  But the ABA takes no stand on capital punishment.  Instead they encourage state organizations to push for a moratorium on death penalties.  See their moratorium website.  So the question remains, does the ABA take a position on capital punishment or not? Of course they do, but publicly proclaiming an official position would harm their credibility when it comes to rating judges. 

 

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October 29, 2007

Former U.S. Representative and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA). This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work of the United States Federal Government under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code.

Newt Gingrich Makes Himself Available for VP Nod

Last night on Hannity and Colmes, when asked if he would accept the VP spot on the ticket, said "I think you would have to look at it at that time. You know Ronald Reagan was asked at one point, in retrospect if Gerald Ford had offered him the Vice Presidency would he take it, and he said, it would be very hard for a citizen to say no under those circumstances, so I'm not going to rule it out but I have an idea Allen that it would be very unlikely that any candidate is going to offer it to me."

That was not a denial but a wholehearted acceptance of the possibility. One might imagine a Republican nominee who has problems with conservatives, such as Giuliani, Romney or McCain, picking Newt Gingrich as their running mate. 

Iowa: Obama Has Closed the Gap - Romney Has Blown It Wide Open

Obama has closed the gap in Iowa according to a Universtiy of Iowa Hawkeye Poll conducted from October 17th to 24th.  Clinton received 28.9 percent compared to Obama's 26.6 and Edwards's 20.0.  Hillary lead the pack in the most recent Ref's Poll Average by 7.0 percent.  After factoring in the new poll, Hillary still leads by 6.3 percent.

Prior to this poll Romney lead by 10.0 percent.  His lead has broken lept to 13.4 points. Perhaps the bigger story in this poll is Romney's complete dominance in Iowa.  See the Hawkeye Poll.   

Hillary the Scariest Candidate?  Scariest Costume Anyway

Hillary leads in all the polls no matter what jurisdication in which that poll is taken.  The Ref suspects that this is true partly because she has the most widely known profile in the race, Democrat or Republican.  A poll taken asking which candidate would make the scariest costume found that thirty-seven percent of those asked picked Hillary, with Giuliani coming in at second place with fourteen percent.

Republicans probably weighed in heavily here.  This poll represented nothing more than a cleverly worded disaproval rating.  Hillary definitely faces an uphill battle because of these high negatives.  Had the poll asked who the scariest candidate was the results probaly would have mirrored the results found in this poll.  See the story, Clinton, Giuliani Top Costume Picks, AP.

 

Anti-Hillary Video Capturing Huge Audience on the Internet

Part 1 of 2

Part 2 of 2

 

Mitt Romney surrounded by supporters during the Milford Labor Day parade. Milford, NH. September 03, 2007 at 14:03. Author: Dave Delay. Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation; with no Invariant Sections, no Front-Cover Texts, and no Back-Cover Texts. A copy of the license is included in the section entitled "GNU Free Documentation License".Judd Gregg, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire. Saved more efficiently as a jpg from http://gregg.senate.gov/photos/photos/JGofficialHighresolution.bmp. This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work of the United States Federal Government under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code.

New Hampshire US Senator Endorses Romney

Today Senator Judd Gregg endorsed Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination. One doubts that the actual endorsement will transition to many votes, but organizationally the endorsement probably helps Romney. Senator Gregg loaned several aides to the Romney camp gain according to the AP. New Hampshire Senator to Endorse Romney, Philip Elliot, AP. Because in-state organization represents one of the central factors in winning primaries, the insider assistance should help Romney secure the win in New Hampshire. Romney currently leads by 6.7% over Giuliani in the state and has been running ahead in New Hampshire by a substantial margin for some time. See New Hampshire Poll Averages.

The Romney frontloaded strategy relies heavily, if no entirely, on winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. The question of whether he can transition early wins into a boost in his national numbers remains. Certainly media and public attention will be at its peak when Iowa and New Hampshire votes, but previous wins in these states have not always lead to the nomination.

Those who won New Hampshire but lost the nomination include John McCain in 2000, Pat Buchanan in 1996, Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. in 1964 and Governor Harold E. Stassen in 1948. Every other presidential primary in New Hampshire has predicted the winner of the nomination since 1948.  The recent failure of New Hampshire primary winners to capture the nomination suggests that perhaps too much emphasis has been placed on New Hampshire in recent election cycles.  Mitt Romney hopes this is not true.  Interestingsly, Senator Gregg backed George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996, both of whom lost the state primary.  

Sign of Romney Strength: Giuliani Aims to Shortcircuit Romney Front Loaded Strategy

The Giuliani campaign has decided to make a stronger push in New Hampshire than it has to this point.  They spent four days in New Hampshire this week and more time there than in any other early primary state, according to Politico.com.  See the article, Giuliani to Fight for New Hampshire Win, Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin. 

Until this month it appeared that Giuliani seemed content to cede Iowa and New Hampshire to Romney, but this recent shift in campaign attention indicates an apparent shift in that strategy.  Two explanations for this shift exist.  Either Giuliani feels comfortable enough in the later states such as Florida that the campaign feels they should go for the early states, or the campaign has deemed the Romney strategy a threat in those later states if it succeeds. 

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