33 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

Hillary and Obama - Time to battle

Dick Morris: Hillary in trouble in New Hampshire

Divorce hurts the environment

Pat Robertson hands over 700 Club

Obama and Huckabee both take Iowa leads in poll averages

Another homosexual claims sex with Craig

McCain scores big New Hampshire ensorsement

Huckabee keeps counsel with Dick Morris

UK - Twelve year olds getting abortions

Obama-Bloomberg ticket?

"Obama hasn't always been so adamant about lobbyists"

Philly makes Boy Scouts pay for national policy

US Senate - Dems gain?

Huckabee makes his case . . . for VP?

Ice storm rips north US

Ohio State back on top

Conservatives: Giuliani is dangerous

New Cancer Research Findings

Big Poll Moves

Charity cyclist dies for his effort

A new enemy in Iraq . . . cholera

Brain food: Chocolate, cold meat and sex

Barbara Boxer Grudge stifles Judge

Big Brother?  Internet companies know where you live

Chavez: Another whacky claim

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THE LATEST AND MOST ACCURATE POLL NUMBERS EVERY DAY - CLICK BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Averages
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 13.0%
Giuliani 28.0
Thompson 15.0
McCain 13.3
Romney 10.0
Huckabee 11.5
Paul 4.8
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 18.0%
Clinton 41.8
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.8
See All Polls
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS
Clinton 45.3
Giuliani 43.3
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 44.7
McCain 45.0
Clinton 48.0
Romney 39.3
Clinton 42.0
Huckabee 42.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
New Hampshire
Romney +14.8
Clinton +11.0
Iowa
Huckabee +0.2%
Obama +0.6%
South Carolina
Romney +3.4
Clinton +12.0
Michigan
Romney +5.5
Clinton +24.0 No Delegates (Dem)
Florida
Giuliani +12.8
Clinton +31.0

The Ref's Calls

Mike Huckabee took a modest lead of 0.2% in the Ref's Poll Averages on Sunday. Obama took the lead from Hillary as well by a slightly larger margin of 0.6%. A lead change in an individual poll does not necessarily signify a shift in the race because of variables that impact individual polls. When a lead change occurs in a reliable poll average, a major shift is generally occurring because averages are not as vulnerable to the variables that cause great shifts in individual polls. We will see whether the lead changes hold up, but even if they do not both Romney and Clinton are in trouble in Iowa. Clinton can withstand a loss in Iowa but if Obama wins Iowa and Democrats begin to question Hillary's electability and competence, she could be in trouble. Romney probably cannot withstand a loss in Iowa considering how much he has spent and the high expectations for him in the state. Huckabee's biggest Iowa fan is Giuliani. If Huckabee upsets Romney in Iowa the Romney strategy will likely derail. One positive exists for Romney in this shift, however, in that it downgrades the expectations of Romney in Iowa. If he wins by a small margin the claim that he underperformed will not carry as much sting. Obama and Huckabee each scored big on Sunday.

 

CNN's chosen questions at the Democratic YouTube debate were basically sympathetic to the Democratic view on issues. They did not mock the fundamental beliefs of a large portion of Democrats and certainly were not asked by supporters of Republicans. The same cannot be said for the Republican YouTube debate. So far four of the questioners have been discovered to be open supporters of Democratic candidates. Why would those who support a Democrat want to ask a Republican a question unless it is to make them look bad? CNN could have produced an informative and entertaining debate without giving Democrats a prominent role in a Republican debate, but they chose not to. One must wonder why a network is so willing to abandon even the appearance of objectivity. It was unnecessary and rough.  

Huckabee has targeted Romney for the past few weeks. Interestingly this came at a time when Giuliani has been doing the same. It is widely known that Romney's strategy relies on winning Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. If he loses any of the three his strategy is undermined. Huckabee seems to attack Romney with particularly severe ferocity. At the same time Huckabee reserves only timid criticism, if any, for Giuliani. Huckabee has a strong argument for being selected as a VP nominee for a northeastern moderate like Giuliani. He would potentially bring Arkansas which Republicans may have difficulty winning with Hillary on the ticket. The fact that he is a Baptist minister also helps with Evangelicals who Giuliani may have difficulty swaying to vote for him. It seems Giuliani and Huckabee have teamed up, if not formally certainly informally. They share a mutual target in Romney. If Huckabee can win Iowa it splinters the anti-Giuliani vote. Huckabee's job, therefore, is to block for Giuliani. The aggressive nature of his blocking deserves a holding call. 

At this stage in the game Obama needs an onside kick and a hail mary just to tie the game and get to overtime. His performance in the CNN debate left much to be desired and amounted to a sack for a substantial loss of yards. Obama's management over the last several days, however, of Bob Novak's amorphous warning that the Clinton machine is coming in for the fatal blow demonstrated some political skill. Had Obama not called Hillary out on the behind the scenes suggestion that much in Obama's record can harm him, and then reminded the media that he has some history with marijuana and cocaine, that already disclosed information might have taken on a new life. Obama cannot do much at this point but put his head down and fight for every yard, but his management of the backstage attempt to shut off all oxygen to his campaign might have ended this race before Obama has the chance to throw the hail mary in Iowa. As it stands Obama is gaining in Iowa, and is even ahead in one survey, and has preserved his chance at a major upset.

Congressional Democrats have made clear their intention to push forward with their attempts to end the war. See the article Democrats Say They Won’t Back Down on War. It seems that Democrats and their allies in the press have invested so much in a Bush defeat in Iraq that they will continue to harshly oppose the war regardless of the progress made in the country. They never believed in the war effort and seemingly oppose the notion of building a more democratic government so strongly that no facts can exist in their minds to counter their original assumptions about the governing possibilities in Iraq. At this point Democrats should not abandon their opposition but temper it long enough to find out if this progress will last. When one blasts the war effort in Iraq despite the facts it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the individual simply does not care about the facts, but only about narrow political self-interest. Just let it play out for a while and quit interfering.

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