Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/4/16

COMMENTS | This projection resulted from analysis of ninety-nine polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks.

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes

*Why I see a strong chance for a Trump win in Pennsylvania or Michigan

Polls Only - Clinton 272, Trump 251

Sample Bias - Clinton 268, Trump 270

Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Cinton 243, Trump 295

REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 243, Trump 295

FBI refers to the reopening of the investigation and the impact of it. Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger.

EVIDENCE for Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias in Polling

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Florida	Clinton 45.1, Trump 45.6			Prediction: Trump 49.3, Clinton 45.8, Johnson 3.9, Stein 1.0
*Alliance/ESA	10/31-11/2	530LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45	Polls Only - Trump +0.5 Sample bias - Trump +2.0 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.5 Late breaking - Trump +3.5
Reuters/Ipsos	10/27-11-2	900LV	Clinton 47, Trump 47
*CNN/OpRes	10/27-11/1	770LV	Clinton 49, Trump 47
*Quinnipiac	10/27-11/1	630LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
*SurveyMonkey	10/27-11/2	2900LV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
Gravis	10/31	1200RV	Clinton 49, Trump 46
Trafalgar Group	10/27-10/31	1150LV	Clinton 45, Trump 49
Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1286LV	Clinton 37, Trump 44
Remington Research	10/30	990LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	408LV	Clinton 48, Trump 47
*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
*NYT/Sienna College	10/25-10/27	820LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
*NBC/Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
*PPP	10/25-10/26	740LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
Dixie Strategies	10/25-10/26	700LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
*Bloomberg	10/21-10/24	810LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
Florida Atlantic Univ	10/21-10/23	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
CBS/YouGov	10/21-10/22	1040LV	Clinton 43, Trump 46

Ohio	Clinton 43.9, Trump 46.1			Prediction: Trump 50.4, Clinton 46.1, Johnson 2.6, Stein 0.9
*Alliance/ESA	10/31-11/2	530LV	Clinton 45, Trump 43	Polls Only - Trump +2.2 Sample bias - Trump +3.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.5 Late breaking - Trump +4.3
*SurveyMonkey	10/27-11/2	1730LV	Clinton 41, Trump 46
Reuters/Ipsos	10/27-11/2	550LV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
*Quinnipiac	10/27-11/1	590LV	Clinton 41, Trump 46
Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45
Remington Research	10/30	1187LV	Clinton 43, Trump 48
UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	340LV	Clinton 50, Trump 47
*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	800LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
Trafalger Group	10/24-10/26	1150LV	Clinton 44, Trump 49

North Carolina	Clinton 45.6, Trump 45.6			Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.6, Johnson 3.0, Stein 1.9
Reuters/Ipsos	10/27-11/2	350LV	Clinton 47, Trump 49	Polls Only - TIED Sample bias - Trump +1.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.8 Late breaking - Trump +1.9
*Alliance/ESA	10/31-11/2	530LV	Clinton 49, Trump 44
*Quinnipiac	10/27-11/1	600LV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
Trafalgar Group	10/27-11/1	1150LV	Clinton 44, Trump 49
WRAL/Survey USA	10/28-10/31	660LV	Clinton 44, Trump 51
Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	730LV	Clinton 34, Trump 41
Remington Research	10/30	1180LV	Clinton 45, Trump 47
UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	350LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	990LV	Clinton 48, Trump 45
*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	650LV	Clinton 48, Trump 45
*Elon Univ	10/23-10/27	710LV	Clinton 42, Trump 41
*Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 47, Trump 41
Gravis	10/25-10/26	1270RV	Clinton 49, Trump 47
*Monmouth	10/20-10/23	400LV	Clinton 47, Trump 46

Wisconsin	Clinton 47.0, Trump 42.0			Prediction: Clinton 48.1, Trump 47.9, Johnson 2.1, Stein 1.9
*SurveyMonkey	10/27-11/2	1270LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42	Polls Only - Clinton +5.0 Sample bias - Clinton +3.3 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +1.3 Late breaking - Clinton +0.2
Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-11/2	650LV	Clinton 47, Trump 39
*Marquette University	10/26-10/31	1260LV	Clinton 46, Trump 40
Remington Research	10/30	1170LV	Clinton 46, Trump 42
UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 50,.Trump 46
*Emerson College	10/27-10/28	400LV	Clinton 48, Trump 42
*Let America Work	10/18-10/20	600LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43

Iowa	Clinton 42.0, Trump 45.2			Prediction: Trump 51.9, Clinton 46.2, Johnson 0.9, Stein, 1.0
*The Gazette	11/1-11/2	1080LV	Clinton 41, Trump 44	Polls Only - Trump +3.2 Sample bias - Trump +5.2 Shy Voter bias - Trump +5.5 Late breaking - Trump +5.7
*SurveyMonkey	10/27-11/2	1230LV	Clinton 37, Trump 47
Reuters/Ipsos	10/20-11/2	390LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	330LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
*Quinnipiac	10/20-10/26	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 44
*Des Moines Register	10/3-10/6	642LV	Clinton 39, Trump 43

Nevada	Clinton 44.4, Trump 45.1			Prediction: 49.9, Clinton 47.4, Johnson 2.0, Stein 0.7
*Alliance/ESA	10/31-11/2	530LV	Clinton 44, Trump 43	Polls Only - Trump +0.7 Sample bias - Trump +2.2 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.3 Late breaking - Trump +2.5
*Survey Monkey	10/27-11/2	940LV	Clinton 43, Trump 44
CNN/OpRes	10/27-11/1	790LV	Clinton 43, Trump 49
Remington Research	10/30	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	310LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	550LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
Gravis	10/25	880RV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
*Marist	10/20-10/24	710LV	Clinton 43, Trump 43

Arizona	Clinton 42.9, Trump 45.9			Prediction: Trump 51.5, Clinton 45.3, Johnson 2.2, Stein 1.0
*SurveyMonkey	10/27-11/2	1460LV	Clinton 43, Trump 43	Polls Only - Trump +3.0 Adjusted - Trump +4.5 Shy Voter bias - Trump +4.9 Late breaking - Trump +6.2
Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-11/2	580LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
NBC/Marist	10/30-11/1	720LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45
CNN/OpRes	10/27-11/1	770LV	Clinton 44, Trump 49
*Saguaro Strategoes	10/29-10/31	2230LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
Emerson College	10/28-10/31	700LV	Clinton 43, Trump 47
*Data Orbital	10/29-10/30	550LV	Clinton 41, Trump 45
UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 43, Trump 51
*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	990LV	Clinton 42, Trump 44
*Monmouth	10/21-10/24	400LV	Clinton 45, Trump 46

Colorado	Clinton 42.8, Trump 40.6			Prediction: Trump 47.0, Clinton 46.3, Johnson 5.1, Stein 1.6
*SurveyMonkey	10/27-11/2	1630LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40	Polls Only - Clinton +2.0 Sample bias - Clinton +0.3 Shy Voter bias - Trump +0.2 Late breaking - Trump +0.7
*Univ of Denver	10/29-10/31	500LV	Clinton 39, Trump 39
*Emerson College	10/28-10/31	750LV	Clinton 44, Trump 41
Remington Research	10/30	950LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	1000LV	Clinton 42, Trump 39

Pennsylvania	Clinton 45.9, Trump 43.0			Prediction: Clinton 48.2, Trump 48.0, Johnson 2.9, Stein 0.9
*Alliance/ESA	10/31-11/2	530LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43	Polls Only - Clinton +2.9 Sample bias - Clinton +1.1 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.6 Late breaking - Clinton +0.2
*SurveyMonkey	10/27-11/2	2180LV	Clinton 47, Trump 42
Reuters/Ipsos	10/27-11/2	500.LV	Clinton 48, Trump 45
*Susquehanna Polling	10/31-11/1	680LV	Clinton 45, Trump 43
*Monmouth	10/29-11/1	400LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
*CNN/OpRes	10/27-11/1	800LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
*Quinnipiac	10/27-11/1	610LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43
Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1030LV	Clinton 37, Trump 39
Remington Research	10/30	1250LV	Clinton 45, Trump 43
Gravis	10/25-10/30	3220RV	Clinton 47, Trump 44

New Hampshire	Clinton 43.1, Trump 42.5			Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.0, Johnson 4.1, Stein 1.4
*Boston Globe/Suffolk	10/31-11/2	500LV	Clinton 42, Trump 42	Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +1.3 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.8 Late breaking - Trump +2.5
ARG	10/31-11/2	600LV	Clinton 43, Trump 48
*Alliance/ESA	10/31-11/2	530LV	Clinton 43, Trump 42
*UMASS Lowell	10/28-11/2	700LV	Cl.inton 44, Trump 44
Reuters/Ipsos	10/28-10/2	310LV	Clinton 45, Trump 40
*WBUR/MassInc	10/29-11/1`	500LV	Clinton 39, Trump 40
*Univ. of New Hampshire	10/26-10/30	620LV	Clinton 46, Trump 39
Inside Sources	10/26-10/28	410LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45

Michigan	Clinton 42.8, Trump 41.0			Prediction: Trump 47.9, Clinton 47.1, Johnson 3.8, Stein 1.2
*SurveyMonkey	10/28-11/3	2360LV	Clinton 44, Trump 43	Polls Only - Clinton +1.8 Sample bias - Clinton +0.3 Shy Voter bias - Trump +0.2 Late breaking - Trump +0.7
Reuters/Ipsos	10/27-11/2	350LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	680LV	Clinton 38, Trump 35
*Strategic National	10/25-10/31	500LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44

*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.