Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/4/16

COMMENTS | This projection resulted from analysis of ninety-nine polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks.

 

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes

*Why I see a strong chance for a Trump win in Pennsylvania or Michigan

Polls Only - Clinton 272, Trump 251

Sample Bias - Clinton 268, Trump 270

Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Cinton 243, Trump 295

REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 243, Trump 295

FBI refers to the reopening of the investigation and the impact of it. Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger.

EVIDENCE for Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias in Polling

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Florida Clinton 45.1, Trump 45.6

Prediction: Trump 49.3, Clinton 45.8, Johnson 3.9, Stein 1.0

  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 45, Trump 45

Polls Only - Trump +0.5

Sample bias - Trump +2.0

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.5

Late breaking - Trump +3.5

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/27-11-2 900LV Clinton 47, Trump 47
  *CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 770LV Clinton 49, Trump 47
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 630LV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  *SurveyMonkey 10/27-11/2 2900LV Clinton 47, Trump 44
  Gravis 10/31 1200RV Clinton 49, Trump 46
  Trafalgar Group 10/27-10/31 1150LV Clinton 45, Trump 49
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 1286LV Clinton 37, Trump 44
  Remington Research 10/30 990LV Clinton 44, Trump 48
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 408LV Clinton 48, Trump 47
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  *NYT/Sienna College 10/25-10/27 820LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
  *NBC/Marist College 10/25-10/26 780LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  *PPP 10/25-10/26 740LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  Dixie Strategies 10/25-10/26 700LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
  *Bloomberg 10/21-10/24 810LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
  Florida Atlantic Univ 10/21-10/23 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 43
  CBS/YouGov 10/21-10/22 1040LV Clinton 43, Trump 46
       
  Ohio Clinton 43.9, Trump 46.1

Prediction: Trump 50.4, Clinton 46.1, Johnson 2.6, Stein 0.9

  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 45, Trump 43

Polls Only - Trump +2.2

Sample bias - Trump +3.5

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.5

Late breaking - Trump +4.3

  *SurveyMonkey 10/27-11/2 1730LV Clinton 41, Trump 46
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/27-11/2 550LV Clinton 46, Trump 46
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 590LV Clinton 41, Trump 46
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 980LV Clinton 40, Trump 45
  Remington Research 10/30 1187LV Clinton 43, Trump 48
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 340LV Clinton 50, Trump 47
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 800LV Clinton 45, Trump 45
  Trafalger Group 10/24-10/26 1150LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
       
  North Carolina Clinton 45.6, Trump 45.6

Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.6, Johnson 3.0, Stein 1.9

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/27-11/2 350LV Clinton 47, Trump 49

Polls Only - TIED

Sample bias - Trump +1.5

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.8

Late breaking - Trump +1.9

 

  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 49, Trump 44
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 600LV Clinton 47, Trump 44
  Trafalgar Group 10/27-11/1 1150LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
  WRAL/Survey USA 10/28-10/31 660LV Clinton 44, Trump 51
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 730LV Clinton 34, Trump 41
  Remington Research 10/30 1180LV Clinton 45, Trump 47
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 350LV Clinton 48, Trump 48
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 990LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 650LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *Elon Univ 10/23-10/27 710LV Clinton 42, Trump 41
  *Marist College 10/25-10/26 780LV Clinton 47, Trump 41
  Gravis 10/25-10/26 1270RV Clinton 49, Trump 47
  *Monmouth 10/20-10/23 400LV Clinton 47, Trump 46
       
  Wisconsin Clinton 47.0, Trump 42.0

Prediction: Clinton 48.1, Trump 47.9, Johnson 2.1, Stein 1.9

  *SurveyMonkey 10/27-11/2 1270LV Clinton 44, Trump 42

Polls Only - Clinton +5.0

Sample bias - Clinton +3.3

Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +1.3

Late breaking - Clinton +0.2

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/21-11/2 650LV Clinton 47, Trump 39
  *Marquette University 10/26-10/31 1260LV Clinton 46, Trump 40
  Remington Research 10/30 1170LV Clinton 46, Trump 42
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 370LV Clinton 50,.Trump 46
  *Emerson College 10/27-10/28 400LV Clinton 48, Trump 42
  *Let America Work 10/18-10/20 600LV Clinton 48, Trump 43
       
  Iowa Clinton 42.0, Trump 45.2

Prediction: Trump 51.9, Clinton 46.2, Johnson 0.9, Stein, 1.0

  *The Gazette 11/1-11/2 1080LV Clinton 41, Trump 44

Polls Only - Trump +3.2

Sample bias - Trump +5.2

Shy Voter bias - Trump +5.5

Late breaking - Trump +5.7

  *SurveyMonkey 10/27-11/2 1230LV Clinton 37, Trump 47
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/20-11/2 390LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 330LV Clinton 48, Trump 48
  *Quinnipiac 10/20-10/26 790LV Clinton 44, Trump 44
  *Des Moines Register 10/3-10/6 642LV Clinton 39, Trump 43
       
  Nevada Clinton 44.4, Trump 45.1

Prediction: 49.9, Clinton 47.4, Johnson 2.0, Stein 0.7

  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 44, Trump 43

Polls Only - Trump +0.7

Sample bias - Trump +2.2

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.3

Late breaking - Trump +2.5

  *Survey Monkey 10/27-11/2 940LV Clinton 43, Trump 44
  CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 790LV Clinton 43, Trump 49
  Remington Research 10/30 790LV Clinton 44, Trump 48
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 310LV Clinton 48, Trump 46
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 550LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
  Gravis 10/25 880RV Clinton 46, Trump 46
  *Marist 10/20-10/24 710LV Clinton 43, Trump 43
       
  Arizona Clinton 42.9, Trump 45.9

Prediction: Trump 51.5, Clinton 45.3, Johnson 2.2, Stein 1.0

  *SurveyMonkey 10/27-11/2 1460LV Clinton 43, Trump 43

Polls Only - Trump +3.0

Adjusted - Trump +4.5

Shy Voter bias - Trump +4.9

Late breaking - Trump +6.2

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/21-11/2 580LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
  NBC/Marist 10/30-11/1 720LV Clinton 40, Trump 45
  CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 770LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
  *Saguaro Strategoes 10/29-10/31 2230LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  Emerson College 10/28-10/31 700LV Clinton 43, Trump 47
  *Data Orbital 10/29-10/30 550LV Clinton 41, Trump 45
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 370LV Clinton 43, Trump 51
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 990LV Clinton 42, Trump 44
  *Monmouth 10/21-10/24 400LV Clinton 45, Trump 46
       
  Colorado Clinton 42.8, Trump 40.6

Prediction: Trump 47.0, Clinton 46.3, Johnson 5.1, Stein 1.6

  *SurveyMonkey 10/27-11/2 1630LV Clinton 44, Trump 40

Polls Only - Clinton +2.0

Sample bias - Clinton +0.3

Shy Voter bias - Trump +0.2

Late breaking - Trump +0.7

  *Univ of Denver 10/29-10/31 500LV Clinton 39, Trump 39
  *Emerson College 10/28-10/31 750LV Clinton 44, Trump 41
  Remington Research 10/30 950LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 1000LV Clinton 42, Trump 39
           
  Pennsylvania Clinton 45.9, Trump 43.0

Prediction: Clinton 48.2, Trump 48.0, Johnson 2.9, Stein 0.9

  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 46, Trump 43

Polls Only - Clinton +2.9

Sample bias - Clinton +1.1

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.6

Late breaking - Clinton +0.2

  *SurveyMonkey 10/27-11/2 2180LV Clinton 47, Trump 42
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/27-11/2 500.LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *Susquehanna Polling 10/31-11/1 680LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
  *Monmouth 10/29-11/1 400LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 800LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 610LV Clinton 48, Trump 43
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 1030LV Clinton 37, Trump 39
  Remington Research 10/30 1250LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
  Gravis 10/25-10/30 3220RV Clinton 47, Trump 44
           
  New Hampshire Clinton 43.1, Trump 42.5

Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.0, Johnson 4.1, Stein 1.4

  *Boston Globe/Suffolk 10/31-11/2 500LV Clinton 42, Trump 42

Polls Only - Clinton +0.6

Sample bias - Trump +1.3

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.8

Late breaking - Trump +2.5

  ARG 10/31-11/2 600LV Clinton 43, Trump 48
  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 43, Trump 42
  *UMASS Lowell 10/28-11/2 700LV Cl.inton 44, Trump 44
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/28-10/2 310LV Clinton 45, Trump 40
  *WBUR/MassInc 10/29-11/1` 500LV Clinton 39, Trump 40
  *Univ. of New Hampshire 10/26-10/30 620LV Clinton 46, Trump 39
  Inside Sources 10/26-10/28 410LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
           
  Michigan Clinton 42.8, Trump 41.0

Prediction: Trump 47.9, Clinton 47.1, Johnson 3.8, Stein 1.2

  *SurveyMonkey 10/28-11/3 2360LV Clinton 44, Trump 43

Polls Only - Clinton +1.8

Sample bias - Clinton +0.3

Shy Voter bias - Trump +0.2

Late breaking - Trump +0.7

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/27-11/2 350LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 680LV Clinton 38, Trump 35
  *Strategic National 10/25-10/31 500LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
           
           
           
           

*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.

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