Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/6/16Previous Projections: 11/4/16 | 11/5/16 | Today's projection resulted from analysis of 117 polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks. |
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I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes
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Florida | Clinton 45.2, Trump 45.6 | Trump wins by 1.4% Prediction: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8, Other 3.0 |
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CBS/YouGov | 11/2-11/4 | 1188RV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 | Polls Only - Trump +0.4 Sample bias - Trump +0.4 *Due to high Latino turnout in Florida, I am assuming the sample bias has been offset to 0. Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9 *I think it it safe to assume a shy voter bias of 0.5 points. This is a conservative assumption. Late breaking - Trump +1.4 The Comey announcement reduces the late breaking advantage, but it still exists because Hillary is almost two points below 47, where a winning incumbent should be in this race. Trump should yield more than half the undecided. Assuming Johnson and Stein get 3%, that leaves 5.7% undecided. Trump gets 3.1, Clinton gets 2.6. |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 3600LV | Clinton 47, Trump 45 | ||
*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/28-11-3 | 920LV | Clinton 48, Trump 47 | ||
*CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 770LV | Clinton 49, Trump 47 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 630LV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
Gravis | 10/31 | 1200RV | Clinton 49, Trump 46 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 10/27-10/31 | 1150LV | Clinton 45, Trump 49 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 1286LV | Clinton 37, Trump 44 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 990LV | Clinton 44, Trump 48 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 408LV | Clinton 48, Trump 47 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 500LV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
*NYT/Sienna College | 10/25-10/27 | 820LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
*NBC/Marist College | 10/25-10/26 | 780LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*PPP | 10/25-10/26 | 740LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
Dixie Strategies | 10/25-10/26 | 700LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
*Bloomberg | 10/21-10/24 | 810LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
Florida Atlantic Univ | 10/21-10/23 | 500LV | Clinton 46, Trump 43 | ||
CBS/YouGov | 10/21-10/22 | 1040LV | Clinton 43, Trump 46 | ||
Ohio | Clinton 44.5, Trump 46.2 | Trump wins by 3.5% Prediction: Trump 49.7, Clinton 46.2, Other 4.1 |
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*Columbus Dispatch | 10/27-11/5 | 1150LV | Clinton 48, Trump 47 | Polls Only - Trump +1.7 Sample bias - Trump +2.7 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.2 Late breaking - Trump +3.5 |
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CBS/YouGov | 11/2-11/4 | 1190LV | Clinton 45, Trump 46 | ||
*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 2390LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27-11/2 | 550LV | Clinton 46, Trump 46 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 590LV | Clinton 41, Trump 46 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 980LV | Clinton 40, Trump 45 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1187LV | Clinton 43, Trump 48 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 340LV | Clinton 50, Trump 47 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 800LV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 | ||
Trafalger Group | 10/24-10/26 | 1150LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
North Carolina | Clinton 45.7, Trump 45.6 | Trump wins by 1.9% Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.6, Other 4.9 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/28-11/3 | 360LV | Clinton 47, Trump 48 | Polls Only - Clinton +0.1 Sample bias - Trump +1.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.8 Late breaking - Trump +1.9
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*Alliance/ESA | 11/1-11/3 | 530LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 1170LV | Clinton 49, Trump 47 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 600LV | Clinton 47, Trump 44 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 10/27-11/1 | 1150LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
WRAL/Survey USA | 10/28-10/31 | 660LV | Clinton 44, Trump 51 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 730LV | Clinton 34, Trump 41 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1180LV | Clinton 45, Trump 47 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 350LV | Clinton 48, Trump 48 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 990LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 650LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*Elon Univ | 10/23-10/27 | 710LV | Clinton 42, Trump 41 | ||
*Marist College | 10/25-10/26 | 780LV | Clinton 47, Trump 41 | ||
Gravis | 10/25-10/26 | 1270RV | Clinton 49, Trump 47 | ||
Wisconsin | Clinton 47.0, Trump 42.0 | Clinton wins by 2.1% Prediction: Clinton 49.1, Trump 47.0, Other 3.9 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 1870LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | Polls Only - Clinton +5.0 Sample bias - Clinton +3.3 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.5 Late breaking - Clinton +2.1 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/21-11/3 | 650LV | Clinton 47, Trump 40 | ||
PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 890LV | Clinton 48, Trump 41 | ||
*Marquette University | 10/26-10/31 | 1260LV | Clinton 46, Trump 40 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1170LV | Clinton 46, Trump 42 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 370LV | Clinton 50,.Trump 46 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/27-10/28 | 400LV | Clinton 48, Trump 42 | ||
Iowa | Clinton 42.1, Trump 45.3 | Trump wins by 5.3% Prediction: Trump 51.0, Clinton 45.7, Other 3.3 |
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*Des Moines Register | 11/1-11/4 | 800LV | Clinton 39, Trump 46 | Polls Only - Trump +3.2 Sample bias - Trump +4.6 Shy Voter bias - Trump +4.8 Late breaking - Trump +5.3 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 1600LV | Clinton 37, Trump 47 | ||
Emerson College | 11/1-11/3 | 700LV | Clinton 41, Trump 44 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/14-11/3 | 390LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*The Gazette | 11/1-11/2 | 1080LV | Clinton 41, Trump 44 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 330LV | Clinton 48, Trump 48 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/20-10/26 | 790LV | Clinton 44, Trump 44 | ||
Nevada | Clinton 44.6, Trump 45.5 *Read my article, What is going on in Nevada? |
Clinton wins by 0.5 Prediction: Clinton 49.0, Trump 48.5, Other 2.5 |
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Trafalgar Group | 11/1/11/4 | 1100LV | Clinton 45, Trump 50 | Polls Only - Trump +0.9 Sample bias - Clinton +1.1 **High Early Latino turnout has offset this bias to -2.0 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +1.5 Late breaking - Clinton +0.5 |
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*Survey Monkey | 10/29-11/4 | 1090LV | Clinton 42, Trump 43 | ||
*Alliance/ESA | 11/1-11/3 | 530LV | Clinton 43, Trump 43 | ||
PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 690LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
LasVegasNow.com/JMC . | 10/28-11/1 | 600LV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 | ||
CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 790LV | Clinton 43, Trump 49 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 790LV | Clinton 44, Trump 48 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 310LV | Clinton 48, Trump 46 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 550LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 | ||
Gravis | 10/25 | 880RV | Clinton 46, Trump 46 | ||
*Marist | 10/20-10/24 | 710LV | Clinton 43, Trump 43 | ||
Arizona | Clinton 42.5, Trump 46.3 | Trump wins by 6.4 Prediction: Trump 52.1, Clinton 45.7, Other 2.2 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 2150LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | Polls Only - Trump +3.8 Sample bias - Trump +5.3 Shy Voter bias - Trump +5.7 Late breaking - Trump +6.4 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/28-11/3 | 360LV | Clinton 42, Trump 48 | ||
Data Orbital | 11/1-11/2 | 550LV | Clinton 39, Trump 47 | ||
NBC/Marist | 10/30-11/1 | 720LV | Clinton 40, Trump 45 | ||
CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 770LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
*Saguaro Strategoes | 10/29-10/31 | 2230LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
Emerson College | 10/28-10/31 | 700LV | Clinton 43, Trump 47 | ||
*Data Orbital | 10/29-10/30 | 550LV | Clinton 41, Trump 45 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 370LV | Clinton 43, Trump 51 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 990LV | Clinton 42, Trump 44 | ||
*Monmouth | 10/21-10/24 | 400LV | Clinton 45, Trump 46 | ||
Colorado | Clinton 43.7, Trump 41.2 | Clinton wins by 0.3% Prediction: Clinton 47.0, Trump 46.7, Other 6.3 |
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*PPP | 11/3-11/4 | 700LV | Clinton 48, Trump 43 | Polls Only - Clinton +2.5 Sample bias - Clinton +1.3 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.8 Late breaking - Clinton +0.3 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 2300LV | Clinton 43, Trump 40 | ||
Keating Research | 11-2-11/3 | 600LV | Clinton 43, Trump 38 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 10/31-11/3 | 1150LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/21-11/3 | 550LV | Clinton 48, Trump 42 | ||
Gravis | 11/1-11/2 | 1130RV | Clinton 40, Trump 40 | ||
*Magellan Strategies | 11/1-11/2 | 500LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | ||
*Univ of Denver | 10/29-10/31 | 500LV | Clinton 39, Trump 39 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/28-10/31 | 750LV | Clinton 44, Trump 41 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 950LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 1000LV | Clinton 42, Trump 39 | ||
Pennsylvania | Clinton 45.8, Trump 43.2 | Trump wins by 0.1% Prediction: Trump 48.1, Clinton 48.0, Johnson 2.8, Stein 1.1 |
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*Muhlenberg College | 10/30-11/4 | 410LV | Clinton 44, Trump 40 | Polls Only - Clinton +2.5 Sample bias - Clinton +1.1 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.4 Late breaking - Trump +0.1 *Clinton should be above 45.8 here. That plus diminsihed African- American and millennial turnout and few Latinos to offset it, I think Trump wins it. |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 2690LV | Clinton 46, Trump 43 | ||
*Harper Polling | 11/2-11/3 | 500LV | Clinton 46, Trump 46 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/28-11/3 | 490.LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
Gravis | 11/1-11/2 | 1020RV | Clinton 47, Trump 45 | ||
*PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 1050LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*Susquehanna Polling | 10/31-11/1 | 680LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
*Monmouth | 10/29-11/1 | 400LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 800LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 610LV | Clinton 48, Trump 43 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 1030LV | Clinton 37, Trump 39 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1250LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
New Hampshire | Clinton 42.6, Trump 42.9 | Trump wins by 1.2% Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.0, Other 5.5 |
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*Alliance/ESA | 11/1-11/3 | 530LV | Clinton 43, Trump 42 | Polls Only - Trump +0.3 Sample bias - Trump +1.0 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.8 Late breaking - Trump +2.2 |
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Gravis Marketing | 11/1-11/2 | 1000RV | Clinton 41, Trump 43 | ||
*Boston Globe/Suffolk | 10/31-11/2 | 500LV | Clinton 42, Trump 42 | ||
ARG | 10/31-11/2 | 600LV | Clinton 43, Trump 48 | ||
*UMASS Lowell | 10/28-11/2 | 700LV | Cl.inton 44, Trump 44 | ||
*WBUR/MassInc | 10/29-11/1` | 500LV | Clinton 39, Trump 40 | ||
*Univ. of New Hampshire | 10/26-10/30 | 620LV | Clinton 46, Trump 39 | ||
Inside Sources | 10/26-10/28 | 410LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
Michigan | Clinton 43.6, Trump 41.0 | Clinton wins by 0.1% Prediction: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.8, Other 4.3 |
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*PPP | 11/3-11/4 | 960LV | Clinton 46, Trump 41 | Polls Only - Clinton +2.6 Sample bias - Clinton +1.5 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.0 Late breaking - Clinton +0.1 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 2750LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 | ||
*EPIC-MRA | 11/1-11/3 | 600LV | Clinton 42, Trump 38 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/28-11/3 | 330LV | Clinton 43, Trump 43 | ||
*Mitchell Research | 11/2 | 1150LV | Clinton 47, Trump 44 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 680LV | Clinton 38, Trump 35 | ||
*Strategic National | 10/25-10/31 | 500LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.