Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/6/16

Previous Projections: 11/4/16 | 11/5/16 | Today's projection resulted from analysis of 117 polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks.

 

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes

*Why I see a strong chance for a Trump win in Pennsylvania or Michigan

Changes Since Yesterday:

1. Nevada to Clinton: Clinton actually went down in the polls, but due to the turnout of Democrats in the early vote, the sample bias actually now goes in Clinton's direction by two points. For more on this state, read What is going on in Nevada?

Changes Since the first projection on 11/4/16

1. Colorado to Clinton: Clinton picked up 0.5 points in the polls only average, which put her just ahead of Trump.

2. Michigan to Clinton: Clinton also picked up Michigan. She picked up 0.8 points in the poll only average which made the difference.

3. Pennsylvania to Trump: Trump picked up 0.4 points in the poll average, which put him just ahead of Hillary. If public transport workers remain on strike in Philly, Trump will get a bigger bump out of the sample bias. That is not yet incorporated.

Polls Only - Clinton 283, Trump 255

Sample Bias - Clinton 274, Trump 264

Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Cinton 274, Trump 264

REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (Incumbency rule) - Clinton 254, Trump 284

Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger. This is very conservative assumption that advantages Hillary. She probably should be above 47 to be safe, but I am trying to be conservative.

EVIDENCE for Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias in Polling

My Twitter account is just getting started. Follow me here!

 
Florida Clinton 45.2, Trump 45.6

Trump wins by 1.4%

Prediction: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8, Other 3.0

  CBS/YouGov 11/2-11/4 1188RV Clinton 45, Trump 45

Polls Only - Trump +0.4

Sample bias - Trump +0.4

*Due to high Latino turnout in Florida, I am assuming the sample bias has been offset to 0.

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9

*I think it it safe to assume a shy voter bias of 0.5 points. This is a conservative assumption.

Late breaking - Trump +1.4

The Comey announcement reduces the late breaking advantage, but it still exists because Hillary is almost two points below 47, where a winning incumbent should be in this race. Trump should yield more than half the undecided. Assuming Johnson and Stein get 3%, that leaves 5.7% undecided. Trump gets 3.1, Clinton gets 2.6.

  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 3600LV Clinton 47, Trump 45
  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 45, Trump 45
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/28-11-3 920LV Clinton 48, Trump 47
  *CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 770LV Clinton 49, Trump 47
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 630LV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  Gravis 10/31 1200RV Clinton 49, Trump 46
  Trafalgar Group 10/27-10/31 1150LV Clinton 45, Trump 49
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 1286LV Clinton 37, Trump 44
  Remington Research 10/30 990LV Clinton 44, Trump 48
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 408LV Clinton 48, Trump 47
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 45
  *NYT/Sienna College 10/25-10/27 820LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
  *NBC/Marist College 10/25-10/26 780LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  *PPP 10/25-10/26 740LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  Dixie Strategies 10/25-10/26 700LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
  *Bloomberg 10/21-10/24 810LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
  Florida Atlantic Univ 10/21-10/23 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 43
  CBS/YouGov 10/21-10/22 1040LV Clinton 43, Trump 46
       
  Ohio Clinton 44.5, Trump 46.2

Trump wins by 3.5%

Prediction: Trump 49.7, Clinton 46.2, Other 4.1

  *Columbus Dispatch 10/27-11/5 1150LV Clinton 48, Trump 47

Polls Only - Trump +1.7

Sample bias - Trump +2.7

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.2

Late breaking - Trump +3.5

  CBS/YouGov 11/2-11/4 1190LV Clinton 45, Trump 46
  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 2390LV Clinton 42, Trump 46
  *Alliance/ESA 10/31-11/2 530LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/27-11/2 550LV Clinton 46, Trump 46
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 590LV Clinton 41, Trump 46
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 980LV Clinton 40, Trump 45
  Remington Research 10/30 1187LV Clinton 43, Trump 48
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 340LV Clinton 50, Trump 47
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 800LV Clinton 45, Trump 45
  Trafalger Group 10/24-10/26 1150LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
       
  North Carolina Clinton 45.7, Trump 45.6

Trump wins by 1.9%

Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.6, Other 4.9

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/28-11/3 360LV Clinton 47, Trump 48

Polls Only - Clinton +0.1

Sample bias - Trump +1.5

Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.8

Late breaking - Trump +1.9

 

  *Alliance/ESA 11/1-11/3 530LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *PPP 10/31-11/1 1170LV Clinton 49, Trump 47
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 600LV Clinton 47, Trump 44
  Trafalgar Group 10/27-11/1 1150LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
  WRAL/Survey USA 10/28-10/31 660LV Clinton 44, Trump 51
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 730LV Clinton 34, Trump 41
  Remington Research 10/30 1180LV Clinton 45, Trump 47
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 350LV Clinton 48, Trump 48
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 990LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 650LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  *Elon Univ 10/23-10/27 710LV Clinton 42, Trump 41
  *Marist College 10/25-10/26 780LV Clinton 47, Trump 41
  Gravis 10/25-10/26 1270RV Clinton 49, Trump 47
       
  Wisconsin Clinton 47.0, Trump 42.0

Clinton wins by 2.1%

Prediction: Clinton 49.1, Trump 47.0, Other 3.9

  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 1870LV Clinton 44, Trump 43

Polls Only - Clinton +5.0

Sample bias - Clinton +3.3

Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.5

Late breaking - Clinton +2.1

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/21-11/3 650LV Clinton 47, Trump 40
  PPP 10/31-11/1 890LV Clinton 48, Trump 41
  *Marquette University 10/26-10/31 1260LV Clinton 46, Trump 40
  Remington Research 10/30 1170LV Clinton 46, Trump 42
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 370LV Clinton 50,.Trump 46
  *Emerson College 10/27-10/28 400LV Clinton 48, Trump 42
       
  Iowa Clinton 42.1, Trump 45.3

Trump wins by 5.3%

Prediction: Trump 51.0, Clinton 45.7, Other 3.3

  *Des Moines Register 11/1-11/4 800LV Clinton 39, Trump 46

Polls Only - Trump +3.2

Sample bias - Trump +4.6

Shy Voter bias - Trump +4.8

Late breaking - Trump +5.3

  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 1600LV Clinton 37, Trump 47
  Emerson College 11/1-11/3 700LV Clinton 41, Trump 44
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/14-11/3 390LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  *The Gazette 11/1-11/2 1080LV Clinton 41, Trump 44
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 330LV Clinton 48, Trump 48
  *Quinnipiac 10/20-10/26 790LV Clinton 44, Trump 44
       
  Nevada

Clinton 44.6, Trump 45.5

*Read my article, What is going on in Nevada?

Clinton wins by 0.5

Prediction: Clinton 49.0, Trump 48.5, Other 2.5

  Trafalgar Group 11/1/11/4 1100LV Clinton 45, Trump 50

Polls Only - Trump +0.9

Sample bias - Clinton +1.1

**High Early Latino turnout has offset this bias to -2.0

Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +1.5

Late breaking - Clinton +0.5

  *Survey Monkey 10/29-11/4 1090LV Clinton 42, Trump 43
  *Alliance/ESA 11/1-11/3 530LV Clinton 43, Trump 43
  PPP 10/31-11/1 690LV Clinton 48, Trump 45
  LasVegasNow.com/JMC . 10/28-11/1 600LV Clinton 45, Trump 45
  CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 790LV Clinton 43, Trump 49
  Remington Research 10/30 790LV Clinton 44, Trump 48
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 310LV Clinton 48, Trump 46
  *Emerson College 10/26-10/27 550LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
  Gravis 10/25 880RV Clinton 46, Trump 46
  *Marist 10/20-10/24 710LV Clinton 43, Trump 43
       
  Arizona Clinton 42.5, Trump 46.3

Trump wins by 6.4

Prediction: Trump 52.1, Clinton 45.7, Other 2.2

  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 2150LV Clinton 44, Trump 43

Polls Only - Trump +3.8

Sample bias - Trump +5.3

Shy Voter bias - Trump +5.7

Late breaking - Trump +6.4

  Reuters/Ipsos 10/28-11/3 360LV Clinton 42, Trump 48
  Data Orbital 11/1-11/2 550LV Clinton 39, Trump 47
  NBC/Marist 10/30-11/1 720LV Clinton 40, Trump 45
  CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 770LV Clinton 44, Trump 49
  *Saguaro Strategoes 10/29-10/31 2230LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  Emerson College 10/28-10/31 700LV Clinton 43, Trump 47
  *Data Orbital 10/29-10/30 550LV Clinton 41, Trump 45
  UPI/CVoter 10/23-10/29 370LV Clinton 43, Trump 51
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 990LV Clinton 42, Trump 44
  *Monmouth 10/21-10/24 400LV Clinton 45, Trump 46
       
  Colorado Clinton 43.7, Trump 41.2

Clinton wins by 0.3%

Prediction: Clinton 47.0, Trump 46.7, Other 6.3

  *PPP 11/3-11/4 700LV Clinton 48, Trump 43

Polls Only - Clinton +2.5

Sample bias - Clinton +1.3

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.8

Late breaking - Clinton +0.3

  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 2300LV Clinton 43, Trump 40
  Keating Research 11-2-11/3 600LV Clinton 43, Trump 38
  Trafalgar Group 10/31-11/3 1150LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/21-11/3 550LV Clinton 48, Trump 42
  Gravis 11/1-11/2 1130RV Clinton 40, Trump 40
  *Magellan Strategies 11/1-11/2 500LV Clinton 44, Trump 43
  *Univ of Denver 10/29-10/31 500LV Clinton 39, Trump 39
  *Emerson College 10/28-10/31 750LV Clinton 44, Trump 41
  Remington Research 10/30 950LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
  *CBS/YouGov 10/26-10/28 1000LV Clinton 42, Trump 39
           
  Pennsylvania Clinton 45.8, Trump 43.2

Trump wins by 0.1%

Prediction: Trump 48.1, Clinton 48.0, Johnson 2.8, Stein 1.1

  *Muhlenberg College 10/30-11/4 410LV Clinton 44, Trump 40

Polls Only - Clinton +2.5

Sample bias - Clinton +1.1

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.4

Late breaking - Trump +0.1 *Clinton should be above 45.8 here. That plus diminsihed African- American and millennial turnout and few Latinos to offset it, I think Trump wins it.

  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 2690LV Clinton 46, Trump 43
  *Harper Polling 11/2-11/3 500LV Clinton 46, Trump 46
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/28-11/3 490.LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  Gravis 11/1-11/2 1020RV Clinton 47, Trump 45
  *PPP 10/31-11/1 1050LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *Susquehanna Polling 10/31-11/1 680LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
  *Monmouth 10/29-11/1 400LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *CNN/OpRes 10/27-11/1 800LV Clinton 48, Trump 44
  *Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1 610LV Clinton 48, Trump 43
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 1030LV Clinton 37, Trump 39
  Remington Research 10/30 1250LV Clinton 45, Trump 43
           
  New Hampshire Clinton 42.6, Trump 42.9

Trump wins by 1.2%

Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.0, Other 5.5

  *Alliance/ESA 11/1-11/3 530LV Clinton 43, Trump 42

Polls Only - Trump +0.3

Sample bias - Trump +1.0

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.8

Late breaking - Trump +2.2

  Gravis Marketing 11/1-11/2 1000RV Clinton 41, Trump 43
  *Boston Globe/Suffolk 10/31-11/2 500LV Clinton 42, Trump 42
  ARG 10/31-11/2 600LV Clinton 43, Trump 48
  *UMASS Lowell 10/28-11/2 700LV Cl.inton 44, Trump 44
  *WBUR/MassInc 10/29-11/1` 500LV Clinton 39, Trump 40
  *Univ. of New Hampshire 10/26-10/30 620LV Clinton 46, Trump 39
  Inside Sources 10/26-10/28 410LV Clinton 43, Trump 45
           
  Michigan Clinton 43.6, Trump 41.0

Clinton wins by 0.1%

Prediction: Clinton 47.9, Trump 47.8, Other 4.3

  *PPP 11/3-11/4 960LV Clinton 46, Trump 41

Polls Only - Clinton +2.6

Sample bias - Clinton +1.5

Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.0

Late breaking - Clinton +0.1

  *SurveyMonkey 10/29-11/4 2750LV Clinton 44, Trump 42
  *EPIC-MRA 11/1-11/3 600LV Clinton 42, Trump 38
  Reuters/Ipsos 10/28-11/3 330LV Clinton 43, Trump 43
  *Mitchell Research 11/2 1150LV Clinton 47, Trump 44
  Google Consumer Surveys 10/25-10/31 680LV Clinton 38, Trump 35
  *Strategic National 10/25-10/31 500LV Clinton 45, Trump 44
           
           
           
           

*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.

More Analysis from the Ref

The unprecedented overwhelming media bias has distorted the polls, hiding Trump's strength

Nate Silver and other "data journalists" have to face reality . . . it's not science

The reasons many polls are understating Trump's support

We are about to see Trump fire on all cylinders and likely win the election

Hillary Clinton is a very weak incumbent

WATCH MY DOCUMENTARY: Consent of the Governed

Imagine MSM reaction if Trump revealed top secret tactical nuclear information in front of 70 million people

James O'Keefe promises devastating releases next week. He discussed it Friday on reddit.com/r/The_Donald.

Rasmussen Reports: TRUMP HOLDS THE LEAD

Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

Why the post-debate polls for CNN and YouGov are wrong

Reuters/Ipsos Battlegrounds: Still a close race