There was a hidden Trump vote that did not show up in the polls that was worth 3.1 points. The RealClearPolitics average of four-way race polls showed a lead for Hillary of 3.3 points. One had to look no further than the Brexit vote for evidence. Pollsters said it wasn't comparable, but I fail to see why. The establishment attacked Brexit in the same way it attacked Trump, with charges of racism, ignorance and constant polls showing a Brexit loss.
But Brexit didn't lose even though most of the final polls showed that it would. Almost every poll showed the Remain side winning, one respected poll by as many as ten points. Yet the the Leave side won by four points. Clearly when the media and pop culture establishment has its favorites, it can create a perception that it is winning. Even supporters of Brexit who wanted Leave expected that they would lose because of the media and celebrity campaign aimed at convincing them they would lose.
So even though Brexit supporters thought they were going to lose, and the polls almost exclusively showed Remain winning comfortably, Brexit won. The same types of themes and players are involved in the American 2016 election as in Brexit. Brexit was considered racist by the establishment because of its focus on British nationalism and wanting to limit immigration.
Donald Trump is considered racist by the establishment because of his emphasis on American nationalism and wanting to limit immigration.
Brexit was viewed as protectionist by the establishment, including the Conservative party establishment who exalts completely free trade. Donald Trump is considered protectionist by the establishment, including the conservative establishment who also prize completely free trade above everything, including human rights. The conservative establishments in both nations prefer to ignore the virtually slave labor that Brits and Americans must compete against, all for the sake of "free" trade.
Both nations are also suffering from long-term economic stagnation in the labor market. The labor voter is frustrated in each nation and one can easily imagine workers who typically do not vote turning out to vote with the very targeted approach of the Brexit campaign and Trump. One can also imagine those same people refusing to talk to pollsters who they view as hostile to them.
The media treated Trump in the same way it treated Brexit, as racist, ignorant and protectionist. It launched Democrat laden polls at Trump supporters, padding Hillary's lead, stridently condemning Trump and all who would even consider voting for him, as they did with Brexit. Some of the same pollsters are finding Trump behind by similar margins as they found Brexit behind, such as Ipsos. In many ways, Brexit and Trump are cousins. We should have expected that there is a hidden vote for Trump as there was for Brexit. The average of polls heading into the Brexit vote showed Remain winning by two points, although it ultimately lost by four points, a six-point swing. The pollsters missed Trump's performance by three points.
One wonders how much Trump have won by if the media had not spent three months discouraging and attacking Trump supporters.