Ref's Electoral Projection for 2016ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS: Race very close in Florida, Michigan, Nevada and Colorado. If you live in those states, go vote! The evening vote will make the difference. Previous Projections: 11/4/16 | 11/5/16 | 11/6/16 |Today's projection resulted from analysis of 142 polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks. |
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I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes
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Florida | Clinton 45.6, Trump 45.7 | Trump wins by 1.4% Prediction: Trump 49.2, Clinton 47.8, Other 3.0 |
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Google Consumer Surveys | 11/1-11/7 | 1350LV | Clinton 36.5, Trump 41.3 | Polls Only - Trump +0.1 Sample bias - Trump +0.4 *Due to high Latino turnout in Florida, but Trump narrowed the Democrat firewall to only 39,000, 130,000 less than 2012. Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9 *I think it it safe to assume a shy voter bias of 0.5 points. This is a conservative assumption. Late breaking - Trump +1.4 The Comey announcement reduces the late breaking advantage, but it still exists because Hillary is almost two points below 47, where a winning incumbent should be in this race. Trump should yield more than half the undecided. Assuming Johnson and Stein get 3%, that leaves 5.7% undecided. Trump gets 3.1, Clinton gets 2.6. |
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Trafalgar Group | 11/6 | 1100LV | Clinton 49, Trump 50 | ||
Opinion Savvy | 11/5-11/6 | 840LV | Clinton 48, Trump 48 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 11/3-11/6 | 880LV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
*Alliance/ESA | 11/2-11/6 | 530LV | Clinton 47, Trump 45 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/31-11/6 | 890LV | Clinton 48, Trump 47 | ||
*SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 3570LV | Clinton 47, Trump 45 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-10/6 | 5370LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 438LV | Clinton 47.3, Trump 47.4 | ||
CBS/YouGov | 11/2-11/4 | 1188RV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 | ||
*CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 770LV | Clinton 49, Trump 47 | ||
Gravis | 10/31 | 1200RV | Clinton 49, Trump 46 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 990LV | Clinton 44, Trump 48 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 500LV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
*NYT/Sienna College | 10/25-10/27 | 820LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
*NBC/Marist College | 10/25-10/26 | 780LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*PPP | 10/25-10/26 | 740LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
Dixie Strategies | 10/25-10/26 | 700LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
*Bloomberg | 10/21-10/24 | 810LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
Ohio | Clinton 43.4, Trump 45.9 | Trump wins by 3.5% Prediction: Trump 49.7, Clinton 46.2, Other 4.1 |
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*Alliance/ESA | 11/2-11/6 | 530LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | Polls Only - Trump +2.5 Sample bias - Trump +2.8 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.0 Late breaking - Trump +3.5 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/31-11/6 | 550LV | Clinton 47, Trump 46 | ||
*SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 2530LV | Clinton 42, Trump 45 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 340LV | Clinton 47.1, Trump 48.3 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 3460LV | Clinton 43, Trump 42 | ||
Emerson | 11/4-11/5 | 900LV | Clinton 39, Trump 46 | ||
*Columbus Dispatch | 10/27-11/5 | 1150LV | Clinton 48, Trump 47 | ||
CBS/YouGov | 11/2-11/4 | 1190LV | Clinton 45, Trump 46 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 590LV | Clinton 41, Trump 46 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 980LV | Clinton 40, Trump 45 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1187LV | Clinton 43, Trump 48 | ||
Trafalger Group | 10/24-10/26 | 1150LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
North Carolina | Clinton 45.2, Trump 45.2 | Trump wins by 1.6% Prediction: Trump 48.4, Clinton 46.8, Other 4.8 |
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Google Consumer Surveys | 11/1-11/7 | 790LV | Clinton 35, Trump 41 | Polls Only - TIED Sample bias - Trump +1.2 *The early vote demonstrates a weakness in black and millennial turnout for Clinton. There should be a big sample bias. Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.5 Late breaking - Trump +1.6
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*NYT/Sienna | 11/4-11/6 | 800LV | Clinton 44, Trump 44 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 360LV | Clinton 47, Trump 48 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 600LV | Clinton 47, Trump 44 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/31-11/6 | 370LV | Clinton 46, Trump 47 | ||
SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 2870LV | Clinton 48, Trump 41 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 2920LV | Clinton 44, Trump 41 | ||
Gravis | 11/1-11/4 | 1250RV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
Remington Research | 11/1-11/2 | 2600LV | Clinton 45, Trump 48 | ||
*PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 1170LV | Clinton 49, Trump 47 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 10/27-11/1 | 1150LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
WRAL/Survey USA | 10/28-10/31 | 660LV | Clinton 44, Trump 51 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 990LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 650LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*Elon Univ | 10/23-10/27 | 710LV | Clinton 42, Trump 41 | ||
Wisconsin | Clinton 46.7, Trump 41.6 | Clinton wins by 2.1% Prediction: Clinton 49.1, Trump 47.0, Other 3.9 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 1940LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | Polls Only - Clinton +5.1 Sample bias - Clinton +3.3 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.5 Late breaking - Clinton +2.1 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/24-11/6 | 830LV | Clinton 46, Trump 40 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 1790:V | Clinton 42, Trump 38 | ||
Remington Research | 11/1-11/2 | 2720LV | Clinton 49, Trump 41 | ||
Clarity Campaign Labs | 11/1-11/2 | 1130LV | Clinton 47, Trump 43 | ||
PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 890LV | Clinton 48, Trump 41 | ||
*Marquette University | 10/26-10/31 | 1260LV | Clinton 46, Trump 40 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 370LV | Clinton 50,.Trump 46 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/27-10/28 | 400LV | Clinton 48, Trump 42 | ||
Iowa | Clinton 41.8, Trump 44.3 | Trump wins by 3.3% Prediction: Trump 50.3, Clinton 47.0, Other 2.7 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 1600LV | Clinton 37, Trump 47 | Polls Only - Trump +2.5 Sample bias - Trump +2.8 Shy Voter bias - Trump +3.1 Late breaking - Trump +3.3 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/17-11/6 | 416LV | Clinton 44, Trump 44 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 970LV | Clinton 40, Trump 37 | ||
*Des Moines Register | 11/1-11/4 | 800LV | Clinton 39, Trump 46 | ||
Emerson College | 11/1-11/3 | 700LV | Clinton 41, Trump 44 | ||
*The Gazette | 11/1-11/2 | 1080LV | Clinton 41, Trump 44 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 330LV | Clinton 48, Trump 48 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/20-10/26 | 790LV | Clinton 44, Trump 44 | ||
Nevada | Clinton 44.9, Trump 44.8 *Read my article, What is going on in Nevada? |
Clinton wins by 1.0 Prediction: Clinton 49.0, Trump 48.0, Other 3.0 |
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Gravis | 11/3-11/6 | 1160RV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | Polls Only - Clinton +0.1 Sample bias - Clinton +1.1 **High Early Latino turnout has offset this bias to -2.0 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +1.5 Late breaking - Clinton +1.0 |
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*Alliance/ESA | 11/2-11/6 | 530LV | Clinton 44, Trump 44 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 323LV | Clinton 49, Trump 46 | ||
*Survey Monkey | 10/30-11/6 | 1120LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/17-11/6 | 340LV | Clinton 45, Trump 42 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 660LV | Clinton 43, Trump 41 | ||
Emerson | 11/4-11/5 | 600LV | Clinton 47, Trump 46 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 11/1/11/4 | 1100LV | Clinton 45, Trump 50 | ||
PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 690LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
LasVegasNow.com/JMC . | 10/28-11/1 | 600LV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 | ||
CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 790LV | Clinton 43, Trump 49 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 790LV | Clinton 44, Trump 48 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 550LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 | ||
*Marist | 10/20-10/24 | 710LV | Clinton 43, Trump 43 | ||
Arizona | Clinton 42.4, Trump 46.2 | Trump wins by 6.4 Prediction: Trump 52.1, Clinton 45.7, Other 2.2 |
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UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 350LV | Clinton 43, Trump 50 | Polls Only - Trump +3.8 Sample bias - Trump +5.3 Shy Voter bias - Trump +5.7 Late breaking - Trump +6.4 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 2320LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/24-11/6 | 590LV | Clinton 42, Trump 47 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 11/4-11/6 | 1570LV | Clinton 38, Trump 46 | ||
Data Orbital | 11/1-11/2 | 550LV | Clinton 39, Trump 47 | ||
NBC/Marist | 10/30-11/1 | 720LV | Clinton 40, Trump 45 | ||
CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 770LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
*Saguaro Strategoes | 10/29-10/31 | 2230LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
Emerson College | 10/28-10/31 | 700LV | Clinton 43, Trump 47 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 990LV | Clinton 42, Trump 44 | ||
*Monmouth | 10/21-10/24 | 400LV | Clinton 45, Trump 46 | ||
Colorado | Clinton 43.6, Trump 40.8 | Clinton wins by 1.5% Prediction: Clinton 48.2, Trump 46.7, Other 5.1 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 2410LV | Clinton 43, Trump 39 | Polls Only - Clinton +2.8 Sample bias - Clinton +2.2 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.8 Late breaking - Clinton +1.5 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/24-11/6 | 540LV | Clinton 48, Trump 42 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 1560LV | Clinton 42, Trump 37 | ||
*PPP | 11/3-11/4 | 700LV | Clinton 48, Trump 43 | ||
Keating Research | 11-2-11/3 | 600LV | Clinton 43, Trump 38 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 10/31-11/3 | 1150LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
Gravis | 11/1-11/2 | 1130RV | Clinton 40, Trump 40 | ||
*Magellan Strategies | 11/1-11/2 | 500LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 | ||
*Univ of Denver | 10/29-10/31 | 500LV | Clinton 39, Trump 39 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/28-10/31 | 750LV | Clinton 44, Trump 41 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 950LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 1000LV | Clinton 42, Trump 39 | ||
Pennsylvania | Clinton 45.9, Trump 43.6 *I could see Pennsylvania going to Clinton, just like I could see Michigan going to Trump. The CCES poll and Google polls were significant in my decisions. |
Trump wins by 0.2% Prediction: Trump 48.1, Clinton 47.9, Johnson 2.8, Stein 1.2 |
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Google Consumer Surveys | 11/1-11/7 | 1177LV | Clinton 37.7, Trump 37.3 | Polls Only - Clinton +2.3 Sample bias - Clinton +1.3 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.3 Late breaking - Trump +0.2 *Clinton should be above 45.7 here with all the effort and money they have put into the state. That plus diminished African- American and millennial turnout and few Latinos to offset it, I think Trump wins it. |
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Alliance/ESA | 11/2-11/6 | 530LV | Cllinton 44, Trump 46 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/31-11/6 | 500.LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 390LV | Clinton 47.8, Trump 47.1 | ||
*SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 2690LV | Clinton 47, Trump 42 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 3700LV | Clinton 43, Trump 41 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/4-11/6 | 930LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 11/3-11/5 | 1300LV | Clinton 47, Trump 48 | ||
Clarity Campaign Labs | 11/1-11/4 | 1030LV | Clinton 47, Trump 43 | ||
*Muhlenberg College | 10/30-11/4 | 410LV | Clinton 44, Trump 40 | ||
*Harper Polling | 11/2-11/3 | 500LV | Clinton 46, Trump 46 | ||
Gravis | 11/1-11/2 | 1020RV | Clinton 47, Trump 45 | ||
*PPP | 10/31-11/1 | 1050LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*Susquehanna Polling | 10/31-11/1 | 680LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
*Monmouth | 10/29-11/1 | 400LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 800LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 610LV | Clinton 48, Trump 43 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1250LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
New Hampshire | Clinton 44.4, Trump 41.5 Google only polled 109 likely voters, which is too few to produce a reliable poll. |
Clinton wins by 0.8% Prediction: Clinton 48.6, Trump 47.4, Other 4.0 |
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*Univ. of New Hampshire | 11/3-11/6 | 690LV | Clinton 49, Trump 37 | Polls Only - Clinton +2.9 Sample bias - Clinton +1.9 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.9 Late breaking - Clinton +1.1 I actually think in New Hampshire Clinton will have more late deciding voters breaking her way. |
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*Alliance/ESA | 11/2-11/6 | 530LV | Clinton 46, Trump 40 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 310LV | Clinton 49, Trump 43 | ||
SurveyMonkey | 10/30-11/6 | 672LV | Clinton 49, Trump 38 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 430LV | Clinton 43, Trump 34 | ||
Emerson | 11/4-11/5 | 1000LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
Gravis Marketing | 11/1-11/2 | 1000RV | Clinton 41, Trump 43 | ||
*Boston Globe/Suffolk | 10/31-11/2 | 500LV | Clinton 42, Trump 42 | ||
ARG | 10/31-11/2 | 600LV | Clinton 43, Trump 48 | ||
*UMASS Lowell | 10/28-11/2 | 700LV | Clinton 44, Trump 44 | ||
*WBUR/MassInc | 10/29-11/1` | 500LV | Clinton 39, Trump 40 | ||
Inside Sources | 10/26-10/28 | 410LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
Michigan | Clinton 43.7, Trump 41.2 *I could see Michigan going to Trump, just like I could see Pennsylvania going to Clinton. The CCES poll and Google polls were significant in my decisions. |
Clinton wins by 0.4% Prediction: Clinton 48.2, Trump 47.8, Other 4.0 |
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Google Consumer Surveys | 11/1-11/7 | 821LV | Clinton 35, Trump 34 | Polls Only - Clinton +2.5 Sample bias - Clinton +1.8 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.1 Late breaking - Clinton +0.4 |
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Trafalgar Group | 11/6 | 1200LV | Clinton 47, Trump 49 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/31-11/6 | 340LV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/30-11/6 | 330LV | Clinton 49, Trump 45 | ||
CCES/YouGov as featured on fivethirtyeight.com | 10/4-11/6 | 3010LV | Clinton 42, Trump 36 | ||
*PPP | 11/3-11/4 | 960LV | Clinton 46, Trump 41 | ||
*SurveyMonkey | 10/29-11/4 | 2750LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 | ||
*EPIC-MRA | 11/1-11/3 | 600LV | Clinton 42, Trump 38 | ||
*Mitchell Research | 11/2 | 1150LV | Clinton 47, Trump 44 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 680LV | Clinton 38, Trump 35 | ||
*Strategic National | 10/25-10/31 | 500LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.