January 16, 2008

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Upcoming Primary/Caucus Dates

  • 1/19 - Nevada
  • 1/19 - South Carolina Republicans
  • 1/25 - Hawaii Republicans
  • 1/26 - South Carolina Democrats
  • 1/29 - Florida
  • 2/1 - Maine Republicans
McCain Leads by 7.5%
McCain
 28.2
Huckabee
 20.7
Giuliani
 14.5
Romney
 12.3
Thompson
 9.2
Paul
 3.7
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 8.6%
Clinton
 41.3
Obama
 32.7
Edwards
 13.7
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Huckabee +2.5%
Obama +11.4%
McCain +0.4%
Clinton +19.6%
McCain +4.0%
Obama +2.0%
Clinton
 48.5
Giuliani
 45.5
Clinton
 47.0
Thompson
 42.0
Clinton
 45.0
McCain
 48.5
Clinton
 49.8
Romney
 44.3
Clinton
 51.3
Huckabee
 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

Romney Receives Large Amount of Negative Press Coverage as He Wins Michigan

Republican Primaries

Hillary Focusses on Terrorism in Nevada Debate, Distances Herself From Race Controversy, as Large Uncommitted Vote Goes Against Her in Michigan

Obama the Subject of Lying Email

McCain Leads in One South Carolina Poll, Vows to Win the State as Campaign Criticizes Romney - Also Receives Criticism from Conservative Media

Huckabee Loses Big in Michigan, Will Focus on South Carolina

Giuliani Tries to Stay Relevant

Bloomberg Encouraged to Run for President

Democratic Debate Sees Hillary and Obama Make Peace As Kucinich Loses Court Challenge

Thompson Attempts to Rise in South Carolina

MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

Republican Primary
Candidate
%
Romney
39
McCain
30
Huckabee
16
Paul
6
Thompson
4
Giuliani
3
Uncommitted
2
100% Reporting
-
Democratic Primary
Clinton
55
Uncommitted
40
100% Reporting

 

 

The Ref's Calls

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THE NEXT BIG REPUBLICAN RACE

Now that Romney has won Michigan we know he will remain a competitor in the race until at least February 5th, Super Tuesday. We cannot say the same of any other Republican hopeful because they all need wins to raise money and remain competitive. 

Because Romney represents the one constant we can reach two major conclusions. First, Romney will benefit from the South Carolina primary regardless of who wins. While some believe that Romney's chief competitor is McCain, he actually loses more votes to Huckabee and Thompson. Both Huckabee and Thompson receive primarily votes of conservatives who would likely split more toward Romney than McCain.

If McCain wins South Carolina and Huckabee finishes in second place, Thompson will likely drop out and Huckabee will be substantially weakened. As a result Romney will gain some votes from both Thompson and Huckabee. McCain, however, will gain few votes from other candidates until Giuliani drops out. 

The second conclusion we can reach is that McCain must win conservative votes to win the nomination. He is in the same battle for conservatives in which Romney, Huckabee and Thompson are engaged. Conservatives rule the Republican Party and they will decide who takes the nomination. Michigan represented McCain's most favorable remaining state because of its loose voting rules.  The remaining calendar features mostly states that allow only Republicans to vote for the Republican nomination. Losing Michigan hurt McCain significantly.

The one major remaining question is who can win the conservative vote? Once a candidate receiving conservative votes drops out, probably Thompson, those voters will go somewhere. McCain must take a sizable portion of them to stop Romney. The next big race, therefore, is South Carolina. Watch where Thompson finishes. If he finishes third or below the race for the newly freed up conservatives begins.  McCain has not fared well with conservatives in the past.  We will see if he or Romney can win them.  For now, watch South Carolina.  The Ref - Jan. 15   

 

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THE CLINTONS ARE NOT RACISTS

The debate over Bill Clinton's comments has gotten out of hand. It seems that the argument will come to an end after the Nevada Democratic debate where Obama and Hillary agreed that they will put it behind them. Hopefully the parties they represent will allow it to die. 

The controversy highlights the new political variables that now exist because a black candidate has a legitimate shot at winning a major party's nomination. These new variables present an opportunity to put a great deal of racial tension behind us, but also present the risk of inflaming them as well.

It serves no person or group well when the media or a candidate decides to use the race card. Certainly the media deserves some blame in this case as does Senator Obama's campaign, as Senator Obama acknowledged in Tuesday's debate by agreeing that his campaign had attempted to push the story.

Perhaps this will be the last time during the nomination process when racial tension flares so significantly. If it happens again the Democrats are on their way back to 1968 when the tensions within the party manifested into riots at the national convention.  The Ref - Jan. 15

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