November 1, 2007
Examining the Giuliani Strategy: Stifling Conservative Clarity
Giuliani is looking hard at Super Tuesday when twenty states hold their primaries according to a Reuters article. Giuliani Leads Republican Field but Faces Tough Path, Steve Holland, Reuters. He believes that his strong national showing and large more liberal states like New York, California and New Jersey that all vote on February 5th will establish such a substantial lead for him that this victory will seem inevitable.
Romney hopes to create a big enough wave in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina, all states that vote before February 5th. Until last night Romney might not have had much hope in South Carolina, but a poll released by the American Research Group puts Romney up by six points and in the Ref's Average by three points. Giuliani's firewall in the early states is Florida where Giuliani maintains a strong 10.6 point lead. (See Ref's Poll Averages).
California, New York and Florida do not offer enough delegates to Giuliani to win the nomination. He will have to win a large number of states throughout the country, excluding the south, to win the nomination. To win the nomination a candidate must receive a simple majority of the total delegates that total 2458.
Romney, if he wins Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and possibly Wyoming and Nevada, will possess a delegate total larger than Giuliani's who may have won Maine and should win Florida. Because Florida has so many delegates, however, the lead won't be that substantial. Romney probably doesn't need to lead by much, however, but simply lead. If he leads in the delegate count at the time of Super Tuesday the other contenders for the conservative vote should drop out of serious contention and Romney will establish himself as the conservative alternative to Giuliani.
Giuliani's task, therefore, is to push down Romney's delegate total as much as possible. The best way to do that is for Giuliani to win more of the early states. This must be the reason he spent four days in New Hampshire last week. This prong of the Giuliani strategy is obvious.
The prong of the Giuliani strategy that is less apparent is the one that aims to keep more than one conservative strong in the polls. At this point the conservatives are doing Giuliani's job for him, but if one emerges watch for Giuliani to do what can to diminish that candidate and possibly elevate another conservative if he possibly can.