Trump will not lose ground over Comey's announcement, may gain in MI and PA

Trump called for voters to "deliver justice" after Comey's announcement. This plays to Trump's strengthsPhoto

Let's review why Trump made a comeback

will be talking about Hillary's corruption tomorrow thanks to James Comey. Comey making this statement yesterday probably hurt Hillary more than if he had said nothing before the election because it makes the subject for Monday Hillary's corruption. The issue had died down.

Doubt it? Prior to Comey announcing that the FBI was looking into reopening the investigation of the emails, her worst polling period came after Comey announced that she would not be investigated. But didn't that get her off the hook? No, not in the minds of most Americans. There's too much damage already to Hillary's reputation based on solid facts for this to actually change the minds of Americans about Hillary's corruption.

See Above: Soon after Comey announced he would not recommend prosecution, Trump started taking leads again in the polls


This subject agitates all the right people for Trump

Does this statement by Comey remove the cloud of doubt from Hillary? Is Hillary now a shining beacon of virtue, honesty and purity? No, of course not. Americans have decided whether or not they believe Hilary is corrupt. Nothing will change their minds short of indictment, and that will only change the minds of those who think she's not.

The people who think she's corrupt are not budging, and this just adds to their frustration.

So just who are those Americans that think she's dishonest and corrupt? Oddly enough, many of those people are the ones who Trump is currently courting to vote for him. Specifically, Bernie supporters and Republicans who aren't crazy about Trump. All this announcement does is remind those people that the Clintons seem to get away with everything.

This puts all the wind right back into the "system's rigged" argument. Who is open to that? Those who suffered because of a rigged system. Who in particular? Bernie supporters in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Yikes! Really?



Politics so often is mainly about topic selection. This is why the media has so much power. James Comey saying anything at all about Hillary Clinton's legal challenges represents an event that chooses the topic, and for tomorrow, that subject is Hillary's corruption.


On June 29th, I outlined why Trump would surge late. Here's that analysis updated to reflect yesterday's announcement.

1. Media focus will almost certainly remain on Hillary for the remainder of the election, unless the media has some new horrible tape or other type of opposition research to drop on Trump. This factor alone would be sufficient to produce a lead for Trump. Nothing changed here. We're still talking about her corruption today. And on the bright side folks, there was no new tape! Imagine how you would have felt if a new one surfaced.

2. Republicans are coming home. Trump is exceeding Hillary in support from his own party in the latest ABC poll, pulling 87% of his own group. This is near the 90% that most pundits expect will produce a victory. The endorsement by Governor Nikki Haley signaled what looks to be a return to focus on policy rather than the man. Again, yesterday's announcement will not reverse this trend. It just reminds those Republicans that she gets out of everything and that she's corrupt.


James Comey doubled down on a decision that America disagreed with

3. We have heard that Attorney General Lynch and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates informed Director Comey that he should not deliver the letter to Congress. They claimed that the action violated DOJ policy against commenting on an investigation close to an election. Certainly Obama probably was brought into the loop, although that was not evident. Despite Obama claiming in public that he doesn't believe Comey is trying to influence the election, if you want to know what Obama really thinks you can probably assume he shares the view of Eric Holder. Holder wrote, Comey's actions leave him "astonished and perplexed.” Obama's Justice Department looks bad in all this regardless of whether Comey found anything new. The pressure they exerted on Comey originally, which led to no finding of intent where he should have found it, and the fact that Lynch meet with Clinton secretly and was busted, angers those people that matter, Republicans who don't like Trump and Bernie supporters.

4. Trump is now spending more on ads than Hillary Clinton. We saw the polls begin to close before Comey's announcement. No doubt this ad spending advantage played a role in that. Because Trump's strategy is to tear Hillary down, his ads will hit with twice the impact because Hillary's media coverage is also very negative. Of course this fact will not be impacted by Comey's announcement.

5. Voters discovered about three weeks ago that Obamacare premiums will skyrocket in 2017. Many of the voters who Democrats probably hoped to rely on will get hit by these premium increases. This issue is like a bomb going off within Hillary's foundation of voter support, where voters who they thought would be grateful for health coverage are now angry. But this issue has a two prong benefit for Trump in that it galvanizes his Republican support, even among those who have opposed him in the past. This does not change because of Comey's announcement.

Because voters' views are hardened on Clinton corruption, just raising the issue hurts her

Because both candidates have high negatives in this campaign, whoever we talk about suffers. We

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