On June 29th, I outlined why Trump would surge late. Here's that analysis updated to reflect yesterday's announcement.

1. Media focus will almost certainly remain on Hillary for the remainder of the election, unless the media has some new horrible tape or other type of opposition research to drop on Trump. This factor alone would be sufficient to produce a lead for Trump. Nothing changed here. We're still talking about her corruption today. And on the bright side folks, there was no new tape! Imagine how you would have felt if a new one surfaced.

2. Republicans are coming home. Trump is exceeding Hillary in support from his own party in the latest ABC poll, pulling 87% of his own group. This is near the 90% that most pundits expect will produce a victory. The endorsement by Governor Nikki Haley signaled what looks to be a return to focus on policy rather than the man. Again, yesterday's announcement will not reverse this trend. It just reminds those Republicans that she gets out of everything and that she's corrupt.

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James Comey doubled down on a decision that America disagreed with

3. We have heard that Attorney General Lynch and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates informed Director Comey that he should not deliver the letter to Congress. They claimed that the action violated DOJ policy against commenting on an investigation close to an election. Certainly Obama probably was brought into the loop, although that was not evident. Despite Obama claiming in public that he doesn't believe Comey is trying to influence the election, if you want to know what Obama really thinks you can probably assume he shares the view of Eric Holder. Holder wrote, Comey's actions leave him "astonished and perplexed.” Obama's Justice Department looks bad in all this regardless of whether Comey found anything new. The pressure they exerted on Comey originally, which led to no finding of intent where he should have found it, and the fact that Lynch meet with Clinton secretly and was busted, angers those people that matter, Republicans who don't like Trump and Bernie supporters.

4. Trump is now spending more on ads than Hillary Clinton. We saw the polls begin to close before Comey's announcement. No doubt this ad spending advantage played a role in that. Because Trump's strategy is to tear Hillary down, his ads will hit with twice the impact because Hillary's media coverage is also very negative. Of course this fact will not be impacted by Comey's announcement.

5. Voters discovered about three weeks ago that Obamacare premiums will skyrocket in 2017. Many of the voters who Democrats probably hoped to rely on will get hit by these premium increases. This issue is like a bomb going off within Hillary's foundation of voter support, where voters who they thought would be grateful for health coverage are now angry. But this issue has a two prong benefit for Trump in that it galvanizes his Republican support, even among those who have opposed him in the past. This does not change because of Comey's announcement.