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National Likely Voters - Clinton 40.6, Trump 40.4 Battleground States - Trump leads by 0.50 points

Trump broke 50% in Nevada prediction

Nate Silver famously has a secret algorithm to determine who is the likely winner in a race. His algorithm is showing that Trump has broken fifty percent for the first time in Nevada tonight. This is significant because Silver calculates more than polls, including the economy, the incumbent, etc. Using all of this, Silver is seeing Nevada is even.

The polling alone is showing Trump ahead because most of the other factors favor Hillary. I show Trump slightly up according to the polls. Nevada is a big deal. Once Trump has Nevada, he only needs to add New Hampshire to win the White House by my calculation. New Hampshire and Nevada are the states to watch to see if Trump will become the favorite.

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ADR, 16--09-19