- Huckabee does not need 83%, only 61%
- A common fallacy is that Huckabee needs 83% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. He only needs 61% of the remaining delegates, or more accurately, he and Ron Paul need 61% of the remaining delegates, to deny McCain the 1191 delegates needed for nomination and throw the nomination to a brokered convention. At that point he could win the nomination at the convention, as could Romney or McCain.
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The Ref - 11:13 PM
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- Video: Huckabee: "Would I support McCain?"
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The Ref - 8:50 PM
- A Parting Gift for Romney
- CPAC gives Romney the nod despite withdrawal.
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The Ref - 6:12 PM
- Hillary Responds to "Pimp"-gate
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The Ref - 5:52 PM
- Obama or Clinton: Will Party Elite or Voters Decide?
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The Ref - 5:05 PM
- Super Saturday
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The Ref - 5:01 PM
- Chelsea Remark Earns MSNBC Correspondent A Suspension
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The Ref - 4:59 PM
- A Crash Course In God and Politics
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The Ref - 4:53 PM
- The Running-Mate Roundup
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The Ref - 4:48 PM
- Conservative Rabbis to Vote on Resolution Criticizing Pope’s Revision of Prayer
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The Ref - 4:45 PM
- Friends Say Drugs Played Only Bit Part for Obama
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The Ref - 4:41 PM
- Romney Bid Was a Crucible for Mormons
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The Ref - 4:25 PM
- Yahoo to reject Microsoft bid: source
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The Ref - 3:15 PM
- Conventional Wisdom Derails Again
- The Washington conventional wisdom, guided largely by Hillary and her allies in the the media and the Democratic Party, has concluded that Hillary demonstrates more ability to win by taking the blue states such as California and New York. Hillary is winning in the traditionally Democratic states while Obama has picked up states like North Dakota and Idaho. He also leads in traditionally Republican Virginia.
- One would have a difficult time, however, explaining why winning the states any Democrat will win in the general election amounts to greater electability than winning in Republican states. One should logically conclude the opposite.
- Virginia usually votes for a Republican in the general election, at least for the presidency. But the state has shifted some towards Democrats, seen most recently in the election of Senator Webb. One can imagine a Democrat winning there, but probably only if Obama wins the Democratic nomination.
- Hillary will drive more Republicans to the polls in a state like Virginia where Obama will not. Either Clinton or Obama will win the more liberal northeastern part of the state big, but the difference will come in the size of Republican turnout.
- The conventional wisdom, that winning Democratic strongholds represents greater electability in the general election, simply defies logic. Obama would threaten in states like Virginia, Ohio and Missouri where Clinton probably would not.
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The Ref | 2:18 PM | Permalink