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Ref's Battleground Index
*Click here to see why I'm assuming close states break for Trump
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In all battlegrounds, Trump leads by 1.2 points. My projection assumes Scenario 3 + Nevada and 3 of Maine's 4 electoral votes Using polls alone, Trump is at 275 electoral votes. Scenario 1 (270EV): Trump loses CO, PA, ME and NV, wins FL, NC, OH, WI, IA, AZ - Trump +1.70 Scenario 2 (276EV): Trump loses CO, PA, ME, wins FL, OH, NC, WI, IA, NV, AZ - Trump +1.88 Scenario 3 (269EV): Trump loses PA, ME, NV and WI, wins FL, OH, NC, IA, AZ, CO - Trump +2.76 |
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| Florida | Clinton 43.4, Trump 44.8 | ||||
| Suffolk | 9/19-9/21 | 500LV | Clinton 44, Trump 45 | FL - Trump +0.4 |
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| Monmouth | 9/16-9/19 | 400LV | Clinton 46, Trump 41 | ||
| NYT/Sienna | 9/10-9/14 | 867LV | Clinton 41, Trump 40 | ||
| CNN/ORC | 9/7-9/12 | 788LV | Clinton 44, Trump 47 | ||
| JMC Analytics | 9/7-9/8 | 781LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
| Ohio | Clinton 41.0, Trump 44.8 | ||||
| Gravis | 9/22-9/23 | 850RV | Clinton 42, Trump 43 | OH - Trump +3.8 |
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| Fox News | 9/18-9/20 | 737LV | Clinton 40, Trump 45 | ||
| Suffolk | 9/12-9/14 | 500LV | Clinton 39, Trump 42 | ||
| CNN/ORC | 9/7-9/12 | 769LV | Clinton 41, Trump 46, Johnson 8, Stein 2 | ||
| Bloomberg | 9/9-9/12 | 802LV | Clinton 43, Trump 48 | ||
| North Carolina | Clinton 42.2, Trump 43.8 | ||||
| Fox News | 9/18-9/20 | 734LV | Clinton 42, Trump 47 | NC - Trump +1.6 |
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| PPP | 9/18-9/20 | 1024LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
| NYT | 9/16-9/19 | 782LV | Clinton 41, Trump 41 | ||
| Elon | 9/12-9/16 | 644LV | Clinton 43, Trump 44 | ||
| Civitas | 9/11-9/12 | 600LV | Clinton 42, Trump 42 | ||
| Wisconsin | Clinton 44.0, Trump 40.0 | ||||
| Emerson | 9/19-9/20 | 700LV | Clinton 45, Trump 38 | WI - Clinton +4.0 |
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| Marquette | 9/15-9/18 | 677LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 | ||
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/2-9/15 | 533LV | Clinton 43, Trump 40 | ||
| Iowa | Clinton 40.66, Trump 46.33 | ||||
| Quinnipiac | 9/13-9/21 | 612LV | Clinton 44, Trump 50 | IA - Trump +5.67 |
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| Monmouth | 9/12-9/14 | 404LV | Clinton 37, Trump 45 | ||
| Ipsos | 8/19-9/8 | 327LV | Clinton 41, Trump 44 | ||
| Nevada | Clinton 41.0, Trump 44.0 | ||||
| Fox News | 9/18-9/20 | 704LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | NV - Trump +3.0 |
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| Rasmussen Reports | 9/16-9/18 | 800LV | Clinton 39, Trump 42 | ||
| Monmouth | 9/11-9/13 | 406LV | Clinton 42, Trump 44 | ||
| Arizona | Clinton 38.75, Trump 41.5 | ||||
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/2-9/15 | 467LV | Clinton 39, Trump 46 | AZ - Trump +2.75 |
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| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 9/6-9/8 | 649LV | Clinton 41, Trump 42 | ||
| Arizona Republic | 8/17-8/31 | 704LV | Clinton 35, Trump 34 | ||
| Gravis | 8/27 | 1244LV | Clinton 40, Trump 44 | ||
| Colorado | Clinton 41.66, Trump 44.0 | ||||
| CNN/ORC | 9/20-9/25 | 784LV | Clinton 41, Trump 42 | CO - Trump +2.34 |
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| CBS/YouGov | 9/21-9/23 | 991RV | Clinton 40, Trump 39 | ||
| Gravis | 9/22-9/23 | 799RV | Clinton 37, Trump 41 | ||
| Quinnipiac | 9/13-9/21 | 612LV | Clinton 47, Trump 47 | ||
| Emerson | 9/9-9/13 | 600LV | Clinton 38, Trump 42 | ||
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/2-9/15 | 421LV | Clinton 40, Trump 43 | ||
| Pennsylvania | Clinton 42.5, Trump 41.0 | ||||
| CNN/ORC | 9/20-9/25 | 771LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | PA - Clinton +1.5 |
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| Morning Call | 9/19-9/23 | 486LV | Clinton 40, Trump 38 | ||
| Maine | Clinton 39.7, Trump 37.7 (Trump leading in ME-2) | ||||
| PPH/UNH | 9/15-9/20 | 513LV | Clinton 40, Trump 37 | ME - Clinton +2.0 |
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| MPRC (Dem) | 9/15-9/17 | 835LV | Clinton 37, Trump 37 | ||
| Survey USA | 9/4-9/10 | 779LV | Clinton 42, Trump 39 | ||
*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.
*Registered voter polls are not included in these averages unless there are only registered voter polls or only one likely voter poll.