RECOMMEND THE REF           

December 20, 2007

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14 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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SEE THE LATEST POLLS BELOW

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior
Giuliani Leads by 3.0%
Giuliani 22.8
Huckabee
 19.8
Romney 15.1
McCain 12.4
Thompson 10.9
Paul 4.6
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 16.4%
Clinton 42.8
Obama 26.4
Edwards 13.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +10.8%
Obama +1.3%
New Hampshire
Romney +10.5%
Clinton +5.2%
South Carolina
Huckabee +6.7%
Clinton +1.9%
Michigan
Romney +5.5%
Clinton +24.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +3.8%
Clinton +26.4%
Nevada
Giuliani +13.4%
Clinton +19.5%
Clinton 45.5
Giuliani 44.0
Clinton 47.3
Thompson 41.3
Clinton 43.0
McCain 46.0
Clinton 47.0
Romney 43.0
Clinton 46.0
Huckabee 43.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

The Ref's Calls

The Question Hillary Didn't Want Asked      | Safety

It's been said often, Hillary has a strategy of inevitability. But now that Obama has taken the lead in Iowa in the Ref's Poll Averages and in New Hampshire in some polls, that strategy seems to have failed. 

Certainly she wanted to ride the veil of inevitability as far as possible, and she's done that. There is no question that she no longer seems inevitable, although she may still be. Her advantage among women in the Democratic Party, a party dominated by women, may yet prove to make her unbeatable.

Regardless of how unbeatable she may be the Clintons have to assume the worst. Because the Clintons are now afraid you can expect the hardnosed campaign to begin drawing a clear contrast. In other words, Obama had better watch out. 

Expect the Clinton campaign to drive the experience point home and to be aggressive in doing so. The Clinton campaign will attack Obama in inverse proportion to the size of her lead in the polls. Be watchful because we may witness some of the most memorable ads and attacks of the coming election year over the next seventeen days. 

The Clinton campaign will do these things because the question they didn't want asked, is Hillary really inevitable, has been asked everywhere and the answer is no.

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

                     GIULIANI'S BAD DAY: NH LEADER ROMNEY AND IA LEADER HUCKABEE TIE HIM NATIONALLY - GIULIANI ADMITTED TO HOSPITAL

Time Picks Putin Who Undermines Democracy Over General Petraeus Who Has Turned Iraq Around . . . But Award is for Impact, Not Necessarily Good Impact

Person of the Year 2007 - Time | December 20, 2007

DEMOCRATS BUMMED: Democrat On Spending Bill Compromise: "This is a blank check . . . one cave in too many . . . an endorsement of" Bush's "endless war." 

House OKs War Spending Bill, Heads to President For Welcome Signature - Fox News | December 19, 2007

Party base slams top Democrats for yielding - Washington Times | December 20, 2007

Key Setbacks Dim Luster of Democrats' Year - Washington Post | December 20, 2007

 

                                          With Immigration Issue at Top of the Agenda, Tom Tancredo Calls It Quits

Tancredo to Abandon Presidential Bid - AP | December 19, 2007

Tancredo to quit run for president - Washington Times | December 20, 2007

Mitt Romney Writes in Defense of Bush

America's President Deserves Thanks And Respect - Mitt Romney in Townhall | December 19, 2007

Huckabee Draws on Fellow Ministers in His Election Bid

Huckabee Counts on Pastors for Iowa Help - AP | December 19, 2007

Surging Huckabee Takes Lead in Iowa Over Romney - Washington Post | December 20, 2007

POLL: Religion Drives Iowa GOP Race, Lifting Huckabee Into the Lead - ABC News | December 19, 2007

Poll: Huckabee Leads, Dems Tied In S.C.  - CBS News | December 19, 2007

New York Times Emphasizes Problems as Security Increases in Iraq . . .

Iraqi Refugees Return, and Are Stranded  - New York Times | December 20, 2007

. . . But New York Times Also Points to Possible Clinton Fundraising Conflicts

In Charity and Politics, Clinton Donors Overlap - New York Times | December 20, 2007