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WHY THE REF'S AVERAGES ARE SUPERIOR TO OTHER AVERAGES

 

 

  • LIKELY VOTERS
  • ALL VOTERS
  • INCLUDING ALL POLLS
  • ADJUSTED SAMPLE

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

Gingrich Leads by 11.5%
See 2008 Iowa GOP Caucus Poll Averages
Poll
Date
MoE
Sample
Gingrich
 Romney Paul Bachman
Perry
Santorum
Hunstman
The Ref's Averages
 11/15-11/30 4.45 509LV 27.8 16.3 14.5 7.3 7.0 4.8 2.0
11/27-11/30 5.0 401LV 25 16 18 8 6 6 2
11/27-11/29 4.8 425LV 26 18 17 5 9 5 2
11/28 4.0 509LV 28 12 13 10 7 3 -
11/15 4.0 700LV 32 19 10 6 6 5 2

LIKELY VOTERS

Likely voters consist of those voters most likely to vote.  Pollsters generally determine one's likelyhood of voting by asking a series of questions designed not only to illicit a respondent's view of his/her probabiilty of voting, but a fairly solid estimate of that likelyhood. 
 

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Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 6.6%
This averaage includes registered voter polls that tend to favor Democrats.
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/29-11/3 1406LV 2.9 44.7 51.3
11/1-11/3 3000LV 2.0 46 52
11/1-11/3 1201LV 2.9 43 54
11/1-11/3 981LV 3.4 42.4 47.5
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 48 50
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 47 52
10/31-11/2 2472LV 2.0 42 53
10/31-11/2 887LV 3.3 45 50
11/1-11/2 1011LV 3.1 43 51
11/1-11/2 971LV 3.0 43 50
10/30-11/2 760LV 3.6 46 53
10/29-11/1 2587LV 2.0 46 52
*CBS News
 10/31-11/2 714LV - 42 51
The CBS poll has consistently oversampled Democrats.
10/30-11/1 714LV 3.5 46 53
10/30-11/2 2470LV 2.5 44 53

 

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Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 7.0%
This average includes all polls regardless of the validity of their samples.
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/29-11/3 1383LV 3.0 44.5 51.5
11/1-11/3 3000LV 2.0 46 52
11/1-11/3 1201LV 2.9 43 54
11/1-11/3 981LV 3.4 42.4 47.5
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 48 50
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 47 52
10/31-11/2 2472LV 2.0 42 53
10/31-11/2 887LV 3.3 45 50
11/1-11/2 1011LV 3.1 43 51
11/1-11/2 971LV 3.0 43 50
10/30-11/2 760LV 3.6 46 53
10/29-11/1 2587LV 2.0 46 52
*CBS News
 10/31-11/2 714LV - 42 51
The CBS poll has consistently oversampled Democrats.
10/30-11/1 714LV 3.5 46 53
10/30-11/2 2470LV 2.5 44 53
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