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Biggest swing of the year in national poll following "deplorable" comment and fall

We have seen a major shift in the one national poll that contains data from after Hillary's "basket of deplorables" comment and her physical collapse at the 9/11 memorial. In one national poll, Donald Trump is now matching his number from his convention bounce. He now leads Hillary by nearly five points, receiving 46.7% to her 42.0% in the LA Times Daily tracking poll.

On the day of Hillary's physical collapse, Hillary actually led Trump by 1.4 points. In just three days, we have seen a 6.1 point swing in the polls. This marks the biggest swing in the LA Times daily tracking poll this election season. The only swings that are comparable came during both conventions. Trump saw a seven-point swing during his convention over six days, and Clinton received a five-point bounce during the DNC over three days. This swing is bigger because it occured in only three days.

We see bounces in polls that come and go. What makes this swing different is its size and the fact that it includes just over a third of the total voter sample. The LA Times tracking poll surveys 400 people per day, so only 1200 people of the total 3000 voter sample has been surveyed after the "deplorable" comments and the fall. To create a six-point swing, Trump must be receiving a much larger share of the daily voters than he has been receiving in the past.

Of course this is only one poll. We will know much more in two weeks when we have the first debate. This poll is our first indication that Trump may actually take a national lead into the debates.

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Dead Heat in the Battlegrounds

0.29 point Margin in Ref's Battlegrounds.

There are now four realisitic scenarios where Trump can win without Pennsylvania.