Of the eight tossups remaining, I think the GOP wins six of them. This would give the GOP 4 new seats, or a 55 seat majority. My projection assumes that the Trump vote turns out. If they don't then the GOP probably only gains 1 seat. But I'm betting they do based on heavy early voting by Republicans in most of these Senate contest states. The only one where the Democrats had an advantage in early voting was Nevada. See the video below.

See Full Analysis Here

Trump just might flip historical trend in House

Aaron Rossiter | 11/5/18 | 1:05PM

The Blue Wave was real, but now offset by Red Wave

Democrats turned out in much higher numbers than usual in special elections and primaries during Trump's first two years. In special congressional elections over the last two years, Democrats on average fared ten points better than they did in the 2016 general election. Applying a ten-point average shift to congress at large, Democrats would pick up sixty-three seats and hold a strong majority in the House.

In congressional primaries, both Democrats and Republicans turned out in higher numbers than in 2014. Overall, 56% more voters turned out to vote in primaries across both parties according to Pew, but Democrats turned our more. Democrats nearly doubled their turnout for primaries, from 10.7% of registered Democrats in 2014 to 20.4% among that same group in 2018.

Republicans increased their turnout, but not by as much. GOP increased their total percentage from 12.8% of registered Republicans in 2014 to 16.3% of the group in 2018. This trend certainly indicated that the typical wave in favor of the out-of-power party was developing. It was consistent with previous wave elections.

Three events that spawned a Red Wave backlash

1. Kavanaugh Hearings

The blue wave was poised to wash away the normal strong GOP midterm turnout. Absent events that transform the GOP voting bloc to one that is closer to presidential year turnout than normal midterm turnout, the House was going to shift to the Democrats in decisive fashion.

The Kavanaugh nomination brought out passions on both sides for millions of Americans. The hearing involved the one subject guaranteed to maximize interest among Americans on a basic human level, conflict over sex. Further, the fact that a man was being accused without corroborating evidence in scathing fashion by highly visible celebrities, journalists and politicians created a deep sense of unfairness for men or women who have sons or are married.

This one ran deep for everyone. Women who have been taken advantage of and men who have been falsely accused, and all people who sympathize with them, took sides and began fighting. This felt like an after-school fight between your best friend and someone you can't stand. It felt like a fight that mattered, that would change everything. Numerous powerful forces converged into a titanic clash, one that would almost certainly reverberate not only in the election, but for years like the Clarence Thomas hearings.

2. The bizarre and endless caravan story

In addition to the Kavanaugh hearings, a caravan of thousands of central American immigrants with the stated intention of making sure no walls can keep them out began a slow march to the US border. The unusual nature of the news story grabbed your attention. Magnifying the impact of the story, the leftist elements of the media covered the story early on because they thought it benefited Democrats. This confluence of coverage across the media landscape seized the attention of the non-traditional Trump voter.

Once everyone was paying attention, Vice President Pence revealed that there is evidence that socialists in Venezuela are behind it. Trump has regularly criticized Venezuela as an example of what happens when socialism takes hold. Congressman McCarthy had proposed a bill that will fund the building of the wall. In just a couple of weeks, the immigration issue had come screaming back into hyper-focus. Trump's base was restored and this election was transformed to the certain occasion of a sweep into House power for Democrats to one where the issue was in doubt.

3. The STUNNING media double-standard

Next we had the spate of inert bombs sent to Trump's biggest critics. Thankfully they were just designed to gain attention. Unfortunately for Democrats, this kind of thing really spikes news coverage and gets everyones' attention, including non-traditional Trump voters. For any Trump voters who had not yet focused on the election, this story would likely awaken them.

The fact that this was a crazed Trump supporter sending fake bombs might seem likely to cause a non-traditional Republican Trump voter to tune out. But that assumption ignores the fact that these voters are focused on elite media-unfairness perhaps more than any single political dynamic in our politics.

The leftist elite media, in a massive unified voice, blamed Donald Trump for the actions of a lunatic. They ignored the fact that nobody was hurt and that the bombs were incapable of detonating while trumpeting the bomber's Trump support. The double standard in the media that always exists came into undeniable focus, no doubt outraging non-traditional Trump voters.

Perhaps if the media had blamed Bernie Sanders for the shooting of Steve Scalise or blamed Democrats for sowing a spirit of hostility by calling for "getting in the face" of Republican elected officials, their effort to blame Trump might have worked. But more transparent than anything to Trump's base was the media double standard.

If that were not enough, the shooting in Pittsburgh amped the media double-standard to new heights. Rather than report the fact that the bomber was targeting Jews in reaction to Trump's favorable treatment of Israel, a fact the bomber stated, the leftist media blamed Trump for the bombing because of the tone of incivility in the country.

An honest media would have acknowledged that one can't blame a president for the actions of a lunatic, especially one who is the most supportive president toward the state of Israel we have every had. If you doubt that, just ask the Israelis. 82% of Jewish Israelis trust Trump's handling of global affairs and 94% approve of the US overall. Despite this stark and undeniable embrace between Trump and Jews in the world, the leftist media blames Trump for the actions of an anti-Jewish radical who explicitly stated he was acting in reaction to Trump's favorable treatment of Jews. Outrageous.

What the sizable leftist media ignores is the influence of the also sizable media that is supportive of Trump. Fox News, talk radio and conservative political websites have largely neutralized the impact of leftist media on their own. Eight of the top fifteen political websites are conservative. In addition to these more traditional media forces, the Internet is full of conservative podcasts, blogs and social media pages that blanket the public daily.

By relentlessly pushing nonfactual and partisan toward the left narratives, the media persists in its assumption that it holds an information monopoly comparable to its dominance in the last half of the twentieth century. In reality, conservatives have achieved parity with the leftist media in terms of influence.

Despite this parity, the left appears to have an unfair advantage in the media because they control the traditional power centers of media (NYT, Wash Post, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc) and social media (Twitter, Facebook, Google, et al). But as demonstrated, the traditional media has been offset by conservative media. So Trump supporters are fueled by underdog outrage when in fact they possess the power within the media to offset the left, a potent combination of outrage and media power for the right.

Leftist ownership of all social media is a problem for conservatives, but so far the left has been unable to utilize its ownership of social media forums in such a way to actually squelch conservative influencers within those forums. The backlash created when it banned Alex Jones demonstrates how constraints within which these leftist owners must operate.

In the short term everyone knows the left runs these forums and it creates a deep sense of unfairness and conservative fear. This very visible dominance of the traditional and social media powerhouses understandably drives conservative rage when it actually employs a hostile double standard towards Trump and conservatives.

This mixture of perceived media monopoly and actual unfairness in reporting, combined with real media power possessed by conservatives that they can deploy instantaneously throughout the nation, results in a cocktail of massive Trump base backlash. The media underestimates the power of this media backlash, which is why it doesn't see the red wave.

Will the new Trump voter actually turn out?

Most midterms see the politically minded turn up to vote. For Republicans, even some of those who are not so politically minded turn up to vote because many of their voters view voting as a part of their civic duty and consider it the only responsible thing to do. This is the reason the Republicans often outperform their presidential performance during midterms, because their voters see it as their duty to turn out without the need for the party to motivate them.

Trump has reached a new voter, however, one that does not possess the self-motivation to vote. Many of his voters have never voted in any election but the one that elected Trump. It is these voters that will determine the ultimate outcome, and it is these voters that polls miss. The polls are showing a dead heat with a slight edge to the Democrats.

If the Trump voters show up in substantial numbers, they will give the GOP the hidden bump that the polls don't reflect. If they show up, the GOP can hold onto the House. If they don't, the Democrats will win. The Kavanaugh hearing woke everyone up, including Trump voters, because of the nature of the fight, a hot roiling rage-filled fight to the death over an alleged sex crime.

One might argue that these Trump supporters have forgotten about the Kavanaugh fight. In normal circumstances this might be true. But President Trump has not let them forget. By barnstorming the nation and keeping the news hot, he has likely held onto a large number of these voters for his midterm candidates.

This is where the caravan and the extreme overreaction of the liberal press come into play. But more importantly, Trump didn't need to hold their attention. He just needed to get them to vote early, and it looks like many of them have. The number of early voters for Republicans have outpaced Democrats by a large margin in seven of eight key states where statistics were taken.

It is the Democrats who rely so heavily on getting out the vote. Democrats have also pushed hard to extend voting times and allow the early vote. Democrats often build up a lead heading into election day for this reason. But in 2018, the combination of the Kavanaugh hearings, the caravan and media hyper-overreaction to the fake bomber and synagogue shooter, have served as the GOP get-out-the-vote operation.

The news developments gained the attention of the new voters in their coalition who are not so likely to vote, and the easy early voting option in most states allowed them to vote while they were motivated. Trump is using the same strategy as the Democrats, motivating his unlikely voters with harsh rhetoric.

Trump's strategy is working very well. The video below demonstrates this.

Follow me on Twitter