January 4, 2008

4 Days to the New Hampshire Primary

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Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani 20.4
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.4
Romney 13.4
Thompson 11.4
Paul 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.8
Edwards 14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
Romney +1.2%
Clinton +6.0%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4 

HUGE STAKES: Tonight Hillary could Win the Nomination, Could be Edwards' Last Stand or Obama's Takeoff

No candidate has spent more time in Iowa than John Edwards. If he finishes third place tonight it will hurt him, and probably end his legitimate chances of winning the nomination, even if it is only by a few points. 

Simply put, if Edwards loses it will not be for lack of exposure in the state, but because his candidacy has been rejected. Edwards performs better in Iowa polls than in any other state. If he loses in Iowa he cannot win anywhere. 

If Edwards realizes that he is finished he may very well drop out. If he does then the anti-Hillary vote will no longer be split. Obama will become the only legitimate alternative. Hillary's double-digit leads in most Super Tuesday states could disappear overnight. 

Perhaps Hillary will make it worth Edwards's while to remain in the race. Perhaps she might offer Edwards the VP nomination if he remains in the race to split the anti-Hillary vote, off the record of course. 

Tonight, therefore, means a great deal. It could determine whether Hillary has a legitimate challenger in every state in Obama if he is not forced to compete with Edwards or perhaps the identity of our next Vice President.

Of course if Hillary wins, as the Ref's averages suggest that she might, Hillary ends both Obama's and Edwards's legitimate chances for the nomination and effectively becomes the nominee. The Ref - Jan. 3  

Huckabee Must Win Tonight

Huckabee is challenging in Iowa and South Carolina.  Huckabee has no chance in New Hampshire.  If Huckabee loses Iowa the best Huckabee could hope for is winning one of the first three.

But if Huckabee loses tonight the opposition to his candidacy by the conservative media will probably finish off his hopes in South Carolina too.  No other Republican candidate faces such strong opposition by the conservative media. 

Huckabee is under siege and simply cannot afford to suffer a chink in his armor. Huckabee must win tonight to keep the train rolling.  The Ref - Jan. 3 

Obama's Best Allies?  Romney Victories          

According to the polls in most states but Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Democratic Party has firmly set sail for Clinton country. Obama may pull off the early upsets but the wins may amount to nothing more than a strong headwind that ultimately does not matter.

Whether Obama can turn the ship depends entirely on the degree of impact of the early wins. If he wins only Iowa the Clinton momentum will not be stopped. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire it gets interesting. If he then takes South Carolina maybe the massive leads Hillary holds in most states will be diminished and the tide will begin to shift.

Like any resistance a ship faces Obama needs the counter wind to be as strong and last as long as possible to shift the course of the Democratic Party.  The problem for Obama is that he is facing a strongly entrenched opposition, or to torture the analogy a bit more, a massive ocean liner full of wealthy Hillary supporters, and more importantly, women. 

Identity politics has long played an important role in Democratic races. It may be the case that Obama simply cannot persuade enough women that they should vote against their gender. 

Considering that the early states are voting in a compressed time period winning those contests may amount to merely a footnote this time around. External factors will play a more significant role in determining Obama's fate, specifically the media and Republican race. 

If Romney and Huckabee split the early states the interest those contests engender will likely prevent Obama from creating the perfect media storm he needs. If Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Obama can do the same, Obama will be the bigger story and he will get wall to wall coverage.  No other Republican candidate can win all three contests. 

So if one wants Obama to win the Democratic nomination, he or she might want to root for Romney.  The Ref - Jan. 1 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Iowa Caucus Results

REPUBLICAN CAUCUSES
Candidate %
   
Huckabee
34
Romney
25
Thompson
13
McCain
13
Paul
10
Giuliani
4
95% Reporting
 
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES
Candidate
%
   
Obama
38
Edwards
30
Clinton
29
100% Reporting

Ref's Final Poll Averages for Iowa

How Much Impact Will Iowa Have?

Thompson Pulling Out?  Not According to Thompson Campaign