Obama Leads by 2.5%

Obama 46.7

Romney 44.2

Among Voters Only

Obama Leads by 2.3%

Obama 46.8

Romney 44.5

Obama Leads by 7.8%

Obama 49.0

Romney 41.2

Among Voters Only

Obama Leads by 6.9%

Obama 49.2

Romney 42.3

There seems to be a disconnect between the percepction of the public and the White House narrative and predominant media storyline.  Either unemployment is not the biggest problem or it is worse than the BLS is reporting. 

61.3% Wrong Track

31.8% Right Track

REALITY - The reality is that we don't know anything like that to be true, but we know it looks suspicious.  If Pew and Ipsos had not both come in with samples of over 50% Democrats, it would not look suspicious.  But oddly, very strangely, they both came out with such polls within twelve hours of each other.  The professionals at these organizations know that the polls they released last night and today are inaccurate.  They should not have released them or should have weighted them to reflect the actual population.  That they did not tells us something.  You can see my analysis here.

Obama Approval Among Adults and Voters

45.8 Approve

48.4 Disapprove

Obama Approval Among Voters Only

47.0 Approve

52.0 Disapprove

There is a great article in the Mail Online today. It makes clear that Newt really has no reason to stay in this race. Link below:

Delusional Newt outlines his strategy to stop Mitt Romney: Sabotage at Tampa

To openly advocate for a convention fight demonstrates that Newt puts himself before his country and party. It's not hyperbole. It's true. One cannot make a credible argument where a convention fight helps the Republican party in its quest to defeat Obama. 

Right now, Newt Gingrich is Barack Obama's best weapon. 

See Newt admit he doesn't know where he can win

After losing two southern states, the self-proclaimed southern candidate Newt Gingrich has no chance of winning the nomination, even if he gets his wish and the GOP goes to the convention without a nominee. He nevertheless insists that he will remain in the race with the goal of creating a "conversation" that will take place after the last primary on June 26th. He thinks that one of the four existing candidates, or perhaps someone new, would be granted the nomination by the consent of the remaining delegate holders.

Of course this is nonsense, but Newt is looking for any justification to keep the dream alive, the dream that he dove headfirst into when he took the lead in the polls in Iowa. Remember when Newt declared that he would be the nominee before a single vote had been cast, when he had only been leading in the polls for a matter of days? 

It is becoming apparent that Newt is not primarily the man of ideas or the true conservative, although he is those things, but is first and foremost a self-promoter interested primarily in making the history he so loves to study. Who will tell him it's over? The GOP had better hope his money, voter support or both dry up to the point that even Newt has to drop out. Otherwise Newt will not only have lost his dream of being president, but his nightmare of an Obama reelection will likely come true as well. A splintered GOP can recover if it has several months to forget about the wounds developed in this process, but if it only has sixty days, Obama can probably put a victory together while angry Republicans tune the enitre process out. 

See Newt's Speech

See the chart here that makes the point well

Obama Leads by 5.4%

Obama 48.0

Romney 42.6

Among Voters Only

Obama Leads by 5.4%

Obama 48.2

Romney 42.8

Obama Leads by 1.4%

Obama 46.2

Romney 44.8

Among Voters Only

Obama Leads by 1.2%

Obama 46.4

Romney 45.2

Romney +5.0 Among Adults and Voters

Romney 33.8

Santorum 28.8

Gingrich 14.8

Paul 11.2

Romney +4.4 Among Voters Only

Romney 33.7

Santorum 29.3

Gingrich 15.7

Paul 10.0

Gingrich 27.0

Romney 26.3

Santorum 25.0

Paul 7.5

See the latest polls

Romney 33.0

Gingrich 30.0

Santorum 27.0

Paul 6.5

See the latest numbers

Obama 50.0 vs. Santorum 41.5

Romney polling much better against Obama than Santorum, Gingrich

Romney 35.0

Gingrich 27.0

Santorum 27.0

Paul 6.0

See the poll and image chart here

See the Polls and Chart Here

Derrick Bell harshly attacked a fellow black professor at Harvard, a man named Randall Kennedy, before Obama spoke on his behalf. Bell attacked Kennedy for questioning the radical racial assumptions academics like Bell adopt, such as the assumption that whites are inherently racist and incapable of genuine good will toward blacks, that whites will only treat blacks equally if their own self-interest is benefitted. Obama did nothing to defend Kennedy, but apparently took sides with Bell, the crusading racial leftist. Kennedy is no conservative, or what some racialists might term an "uncle Tom," by the way. He has written three books on race and the law. He just didn't adopt the most radical racial assumptions out there, which apparently Barack Obama did.

One might assume that an idealistic young law student understandably sides with an academic who puts diversity of thought as his top priority and fights for it. Again, unfortunately, Bell was fighting to make the already liberal academic establishment more radically left, not more diverse. This fact is underscored by Bell's later firing from the Oregon law school. His view of diversity required hiring only leftist black professors, and even the liberal law school at Oregon could not go along with this. Obama apparently thought that academia needed to be more liberal. If liberal academia was not liberal enough for Obama, he must have been pretty far to the left. 

One inclined to give Obama the benefit of the doubt might assume that because all of this happened when he was a kid over twenty years ago, it's irrelevant. This take ignores the fact that Obama was an adult leading the most respected law review in the nation. A person in this position should be held accountable for his or her positions. Students in law schools are held to extremely high academic standards and are expected to defend their positions. Obama knew what he was doing. The fact that this was twenty years ago is also negated by the fact that Obama continued to have a relationship with Bell until he died last year. 

Whether one views this video as innocuous or like a red flag will be based on the assumptions he or she brings to viewing it. It seems that Breitbart may have thought that throwing this Rorschach test out there represented the best course for starting this vetting process. It draws out the journalists who will be willing to at least listen to an honest vetting of Obama and those who are steadfastly against any vetting. Knowing who these people are will be useful.

See the Videos of Obama, Bell, Sowell and Kennedy Here

Romney won about 56% of the delegates available on Tuesday and finished in first or second place in every state. No other candidate finished in first or second place in every state. Romney also won six of the ten contests, including two of the three biggest states. Gingrich won the other one. 

For Santorum supporters looking for Gingrich to drop out, you can forget it. A prominent Gingrich advisor said that instead of Gingrich dropping out, Romney should drop out. That statement should tell Santorum supporters that the Gingrich campaign is not about the conservative movement, it's about Newt's ego. That kind of emotional and irrational response tells you they are involved in a cult of personality. So don't hold your breath waiting for Newt to drop out. Why should he? His biggest supporter, Sarah Palin, who just won't admit it but backs him, said that anyone asking Newt to drop out is whining. With Palin giving Newt cover, it's hard to see how the social conservatives backing Santorum can brow beat Newt enough to get out. 

See the Video of Palin Defending Newt Here

Romney 38.3

Santorum 26.3

Gingrich 14.3

Paul 12.0

Click Here for Latest Polls and Image Chart

The state of the GOP is really not as bad as Scarborough says. Joe's gloom is based on the tough presidential nominating contest the GOP is having and his perception of the field of candidates as weak. But this ignores the reason for Romney's perceived weakness. Romney is viewed as weak because he has not locked up the nomination yet. He has not locked it up because conservatives have not supported him while moderates and independents have supported him strongly, at least until recently. Independents don't like bitter party fights, so they have pulled back. That's why they are independents. There is no reason to think independents won't come back once the nomination is his. He is not hurt by the social issues debate.

The real reason Romney has suffered is because he has never decided to "catch his hair on fire" to excite the right, as he put it. He is still perceived as reasonable and competent because he has not taken the bait from the red meat craving right. Last, the right is going to vote for whoever the GOP nominates because they will be voting against Obama. No force is stronger in politics than voting against someone. This fact guarantees that all those folks voting against Romney in the primaries will be flying his flag higher than anyone else come November. Doubt that? Gingrich never fails to make perfectly clear that he will strongly support whoever the GOP nominates. If Gingrich can say that, then even the most emotional partisan conservative will say the same thing. So when the independents come back and the right joins with Romney, he will be a very strong nominee, perhaps the strongest since 1984. I suspect Joe knows this. He likes to bait the left wings goofs he works with.

See the videos Here

Romney 33.9
Santorum 32.7
Gingrich 16.4
Paul 11.3

See Latest Poll Numbers Image Chart

Santorum 32.3
Romney 29.7
Gingrich 24.7 
Paul 9.3%

See the Latest Image Chart and Polls

Romney 33.5
Santorum 33.3
Gingrich 14.5
Paul 12.3

See Latest Image Chart

Santorum 26.0

Gingrich 14.7

Paul 12.3

See Line Chart