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Who is right? LA Times daily tracker or Rasmussen Reports

The truth probably more resembles the LA Times polling

After a strong debate that will likely save Trump's poll numbers, Conway sent a warning to Paul Ryan | photo

LA Times daily tracking poll shows Trump losing no ground to Hillary since the release of the tape. The two daily samples taken by this poll over the weekend show Trump losing an estimated 45-42 on Saturday and winning an estimated 47-39 on Sunday. Rasmussen Reports, on the other hand, shows Trump losing six points to Hillary. The other two polls that have come out show Hillary gaining two and three points respectively.

When we see two polls diverge like the LA Times and Rasmussen, very often they are both outliers, just on opposite sides. It seems reasonable to assume that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

We can probably surmise that any poll showing a six-point shift in any political race where both sides are polarized and have been so from the outset is probably magnifying the shift, which Rasmussen seems to do.

Augmenting actual shifts in the electorate is helpful in political polling because it clearly gives one a sense of what direction things are moving. But it also runs the risk of incorrectly conveying a sense of finality in an election.

Daily Oct. Surprise tracker 

  October Surprise After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days
National Shift --- 1.45 to Clinton 3.0 to Clinton 3.08 to Clinton 3.09 to Clinton 2.51 to Clinton    

See the full results here

I expect the Rasmussen Reports poll to sharply bounce back towards Trump through the next three days. This is because the dramatic shift is more from Trump losing support rather than Clinton gaining, she gained two and he lost four.

Last night's debate certainly rallied Trump's base back to him, so I imagine he will be back to 41 or 42 by Thursday when all of Rasmussen's numbers will be from after debate.

The LA Times poll is a seven-day tracking poll, so it is designed to remain more stable than polls that only take into account two or three days. With Trump's strong debate performance, I think the LA Times is probably closer to the truth here. The Trump tape will cause a temporary bump for Hillary, but the race probably will remain stable after Trump performed well last night.

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