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CONCLUSION ON FIRST DEBATE: Hillary won, impact was real but small and easily reversible.

Hillary won the first debate based on the fact that her battleground and national polls improved. Considering that not all debates move the polls, it is significant that she managed to improve by nearly two points nationally. The win was real in terms of the polls, but the gains are small and potentially easily reversed. Much of her gain came from Republicans unhappy with Trump's demeanor in the debate and the week following. Mike Pence may have reversed that negative trend and brought many of those Republicans back to Trump. We should know that by Sunday, when the second presidential debate is scheduled.

After seven days of post-debate polling, Clinton gained 1.71% in an average of national polls and has modestly increased support in five of the ten battlegrounds. Trump has increased in one battleground.

For five days, the polls did not reflect much of a shift nationally. In the next two days, a few polls came out that changed that a bit. Averaging all of the changes in the polls that have been released, we see that Clinton has gained on Trump nationally by 1.7%.

What we are seeing is a contrast in findings. The pollsters that poll new voters each time are finding a shift for Clinton. Pollsters that track the same voters or do a tracking method are finding a bump for Trump. It's hard to know who is right. The "fundamentals" crowd will likely side with the traditional pollsters, but they are really not finding a different result in their registered voter sample. They are finding the Democrats are now more likely to vote, thereby resulting in the bump.

 

Daily post-debate tracker 

  Day of Debate After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days
National Shift ---- Trump +0.55 Clinton +1.56 Clinton +0.88 Clinton +0.68 Clinton +0.62 Clinton +2.24 Clinton +1.71
Battleground Shift Trump +1.2 Trump +1.2 Trump +1.2 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.2 TIED

See the full results here

All of this underscores the challenge this election, who will vote? We don't know. The traditional pollsters are assuming a 2012 type turnout, but that is really in question.

Of the ten battleground states, five of them shifted toward Hillary while one, Ohio, shifted toward Trump. None of the shifts were huge. One poll showed Clinton up 11 in Colorado, but I suspect that is an outlier. We will see. No states have dropped out of competitive status. It doesn't look like folks are changing their minds at this point, but that Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents have become more likely to vote and Republicans and Republican leaners less so.

This could all change if Trump reassures those voters potentially available to him that he is up to the job. The discussion over the former Miss Universe consumed the headlines during this time period.

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National Polls
  Day of Debate After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days
National Shift ---- Trump +0.55 Clinton +1.56 Clinton +0.88 Clinton +0.68 Clinton +0.62 Clinton +2.24 Clinton +1.71
                 
NBC/SM Trump 40.0, Clinton 45.0             Trump 40.0, Clinton 46.0
Margin Clinton +5.0             Clinton +6.0
Shift               1.0 to Clinton
                 
Economist/YouGov Trump 40.0, Clinton 43.0             Trump 40.0, Clinton 43.0
Margin Clinton +3.0             Clinton +3.0
Shift               No Change
                 
CNN/ORC Trump 45.0, Clinton 43.0           Trump 42.0, Clinton 47.0  
Margin Trump +2.0           Clinton +5.0  
Shift             7.0 to Clinton  
                 
CBS News Trump 42.0, Clinton 42.0           Trump 41.0, Clinton 45.0  
Margin Tie           Clinton +4.0  
Shift             4.0 to Clinton  
                 
LA Times Trump 46.2, Clinton 42.7 Trump 46.7, Clinton 42.6 Trump 46.7, Clinton 42.9 Trump 47.3, Clinton 41.7 Trump 46.7, Clinton 42.3 Trump 46.9, Clinton 42.2 Trump 47.0, Clinton 42.4 Trump 46.6, Clinton 42.7
Margin Trump +3.5 Trump +4.1 Trump +3.8 Trump +5.6 Trump +4.4 Trump +4.7 Trump +4.6 Trump 3.9
Shift   0.6 to Trump 0.3 to Trump 2.1 to Trump 0.9 to Trump 1.2 to Trump 1.1 to Trump 0.4 to Trump
               
UPI Trump 47.1, Clinton 47.8 Trump 47.7. Clinton 47.9     Trump 49.3, Clinton 47.3   Trump 49.4. Clinton 46.9  
Margin Clinton +0.7 Clinton +0.2     Trump +2.0   Trump +2.5  
Shift   0.5 to Trump     2.7 to Trump   3.2 to Trump  
                 
PPP (Dem poll) Trump 37.0, Clinton 42.0 - Trump 40.0, Clinton 44.0          
Margin Clinton +5.0   Clinton +4.0          
Shift     1.0 to Trump          
                 
Rasmussen Reports Trump 44.0, Clinton 39.0 - Trump 41.0, Clinton 42.0       Trump 40.0, Clinton 43.0 Trump 41.0, Clinton 42.0
Margin Trump +5.0   Clinton +1.0       Clinton +3.0 Clinton +1.0
Shift     6.0 to Clinton       8.0 to Clinton 6.0 to Clinton
                 
Fox News Trump 40.0, Clinton 41.00     Trump 40.0, Clinton 43.0        
Margin Clinton +1.0     Clinton +3.0        
Shift       2.0 to Clinton        
                 
 
Battleground Index
                 
  Day of Debate After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days
Overall Shift Trump +1.2 Trump +1.2 Trump +1.2 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.2 TIED
Florida Trump +0.4 No data No data Clinton +0.2 No data No data Clinton +0.9 No data
Ohio Trump +3.8 No data No data No data No data No data Trump +4.0 No data
North Carolina Trump +1.6 No data No data No data No data No data Trump +0.3 Clinton +0.6
Pennsylvania Clinton +1.5 No data No data No data No data No data Clinton +3.3 Clinton +5.0
Maine Clinton +2.0 No data No data No data No data No data No data No data
Wisconsin Clinton +4.0 No data No data No data No data No data No data No data
Iowa Trump +5.67 No data No data No data No data No data No data No data
Nevada Trump +3.0 No data No data Trump +0.8 Trump +0.4 No data No data No data
Arizona Trump +2.75 No data No data No data No data No data No data No data
Colorado Trump +2.34 No data No data No data No data No data Clinton +0.8 No data
 
Competitive States
Day of Debate After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days
FL, NC, OH, PA, ME, WI, IA, CO, NV, AZ No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change No Change

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More Analysis from the Ref

DAILY POST-DEBATE TRACKER

PPP pads it's Democrat voter sample to find slim leads for Hillary in NC and FL

Ref's Ruling: Recent NBC Polls Seem to Show Flawed Voter Turnout Models

Trump jumping ahead in Colorado polls, up 3.5%

Trump broke 50% in Fivethirtyeight.com Nevada prediction

No Glenn Beck, Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win

2nd Amendment comments won't hurt & everyone will know that in a week

First Sabato, now Nate Silver hedging his shaky bet

Sabato hedging his big bet on Clinton, admits Trump may be one state away

Trump pulls ahead in Florida poll average

More CBS/YouGov "likely" voter polls that are really registered voter polls

The Washington Post mega-poll is not predictive in an election context

Latest battleground numbers show the race tied on Labor day

Mistake? CBS Pollster Confuses its Registered Voter Poll with a Likely Voter Poll, Boosts Clinton Number

Trump is Closer Than You Think

Donald Trump is Not Trailing by Much in this Election, and Actually May be Ahead