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Ref's Ruling: McClatchy/Marist poll varies substantially from other national and bellwether state polls

The McClatchy/Marist national poll released today shows a six point lead for Hillary Clinton nationally. After comparing that poll to the other polls released in a similar time frame, it seems that the results should be weighted.

Nate Silver also noted that the few national polls released this week showing a big shift toward Clinton are out of step with other polling and probably do not indicate a real shift. See his Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

As such, the poll will be included in the poll averages but weighted down so as to have only half the impact it normally would have.

If one doubts this approach, just ask if the election were held today would the national popular vote vary from the Florida and Ohio popular vote by a margin of 6.33 to 8.6 points respectively? Considering that those states usually closely track the national popular vote, as demonstrated to the right, it is highly unlikely and weighting makes sense here.

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Foul Called on McClatchy/Marist Poll

Penalty: 0.5 weight applied in poll averages

Flag of the United States National Polls

6.8 point variation, FAILED: Other national polls +0.8 for Trump, McClatchy/Marist poll shows +6.0 for Clinton

Flag of Ohio Ohio

8.6 point variation, FAILED: OH+2.6 Trump, McClatchy/Marist poll shows +6.0 for Clinton

  Ohio Dem Natl Dem Ohio GOP Natl GOP
2012 50.7 51.0 47.7 47.2
2008 51.5 52.9 46.9 45.7
2004 48.7 48.3 50.8 50.7
2000 46.5 47.4 50.0 47.9
1996 47.4 49.2 41.0 40.7


Flag of FloridaFlorida

6.33 point varation, FAILED: FL+0.33 Trump, McClatchy/Marist poll shows +6.0 for Clinton

  Florida Dem Natl Dem Florida GOP Natl GOP
2012 50.0 51.0 49.1 47.2
2008 51.0 52.9 48.2 45.7
2004 47.1 48.3 52.1 50.7
2000 48.8 47.4 48.8 47.9
1996 48.0 49.2 42.3 40.7